corey davis

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers to the Jets

Dynasty / By /

I speak for everyone when I say, it took long enough. This was a move that felt inevitable at one point and then doubtful at another but eventually, the deal was done. I must give credit to the Packers’ front office for the stones it took to hold fast waiting for a deal that had to happen. Their ability to hold got them the best possible return they were ever going to get for Rodgers. The Jets needed that deal to go through as well, given their roster is ready to compete with only Zach Wilson in the quarterback room prior to the trade. Alas, we are not here to pour praise upon Brian Gutekunst (Packers GM), we are here to understand the impact this move has on all of our Dynasty assets.

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The WR1 Rating: Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings Countdown (15-11)

Rookie / By /

Over the next few weeks, I will be revealing my annual WR1 prospect model ratings to help prepare DFF readers for their dynasty rookie drafts. This article covers the prospects ranked 15-11 in the model. For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here. Before we get into the 2022 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value.

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The Pre-Draft WR1: Prospect Model Ratings

Rookie / By /

For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. If data-driven rankings are not for you, I suggest my colleague @DocFFFN’s wide receiver review from a film perspective. 

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Paul’s Picks: Week 12

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Outside of Cole Beasley, none of the “starts” from Week 11 busted. Cam and Tua were actually QB1s! Plus, I jinxed Mike Williams back into fantasy relevance. Overall, I’d say it was a highly successful week in an otherwise confusing season. Hopefully, we can build on it in Week 12. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.

Let’s get into the picks.

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Zach Wilson Injury: Rapid Reaction

Dynasty / By /

A slow start to Zach Wilson’s rookie career will now be delayed entirely. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported the news, stating, “An MRI confirmed a sprained PCL for Jets’ QB Zach Wilson, who now is expected to be sidelined 2-4 weeks, per source.” The Jets presently sit in third place in the AFC East with a 1-5 record after being battered by the Patriots 54-13 in Week 7. The Jets were coming out of their bye in Week 6, meaning Wilson will be afforded no free weeks to recover without missing games. The outlook for the Jets in the meantime is not a positive one.

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Paul’s Picks – Week 5

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In terms of percentage, Week 4 was the worst week for “Paul’s Picks” so far this season. However, I will revel in my Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dawson Knox, Kirk Cousins, Damien Harris, Brandin Cooks, and Rondale Moore takes for just a moment… Okay, that’s enough–we’re on to Week 5. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.

Let’s get into the picks.

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Paul’s Picks – Week 3

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Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Cortland Sutton, and Mike Williams were big hits in Week 2, and sitting Saquon Barkley and Brandon Aiyuk worked out nicely. Elijah Mitchell had some bad luck near the goal line, I was evidently wrong to doubt Michael Pittman, and I might have to give up on Marquez Callaway. But now we’re on to Week 3. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.

Let’s get into the picks.

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Kickoff Countdown: 6 Days ‘Til Football

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Welcome to the seventh installment in our 12-part series counting down the days until we can once again sit and watch this sport that we love (and dominate our fantasy leagues in the process). The idea behind this countdown is simple. Each article will have a numeric theme, counting down as each day is marked off the calendar, inching closer to kickoff. With just six days left until we have real football, this article will highlight six offenses to target for the fantasy football season.

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Rapid Reaction: Michael Thomas’ Ankle

Dynasty / By /

Thomas injured his ankle twice during the regular season last year and was expected to undergo surgery on it as early as January of 2021. Unfortunately for his team, it looks like now he won’t be looking 100% until we hit the ⅓ mark of the season. The Saints schedule has a bye Week 6 before they head into a Monday Night Football matchup against the division-rival Seahawks in Week 7. Given the expected timeline, it’s hard for me to imagine the Saints rushing him back there for the week 5 game against WFT at about the 3 to 3.5-month mark given the uncertainty of when the surgery actually occurred in June. Expecting a push for a Week 7 return makes the most sense when projecting this early on.

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Corey Davis: 2021 Dynasty Profile

Dynasty / By /

To get a general idea of who Corey Davis is, he was an Upside prospect out of Western Michigan. Coming into the league at 6 feet 2.8 inches, 209 pounds, and a 26.3 BMI, he qualified as an Alpha. Which is a solid start to a profile, a prospect with potential upside and Alpha size. Unfortunately for Davis, he was selected by a team that deployed a low passing volume. Which played a big part in consensus not being high on him after his rookie season where he posted 375 receiving yards on 65 targets. But the raw numbers don’t do him justice. He owned a 19.1% target share is quite impressive. To get an idea of what Corey Davis’s first season told us, here is the fellow Upside Alpha’s who posted a target share within 3% of Corey Davis’ 19.1%.

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dfs week 12

Chasing ‘Ships and Flipping Pieces: Part 2 – Franchise Value and Vision

Dynasty / By /

I specialize in the FFPC dynasty format, where there is a somewhat unique constraint that drives market action. You have to cut down to 16 players by the end of March, carrying just 20 in-season including a K and a DEF. That means that after the Super Bowl there is only about a month and a half to get deals done to get your roster trimmed down. Or you can risk cutting guys that have a lot of value. Most owners try to avoid that. This makes that particular trading period an absolute boon of market activity. There are lots of “one man’s junk is another man’s treasure” kind of deals. And there are lots of premiums paid for studs and there are lots of “cashing out dollars for three quarters” type of deals. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC East

Dynasty / By /

For the next couple of weeks, we are going to project whose fantasy stock is up and whose fantasy stock is down entering the 2021 season. There will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team. We will be breaking down each division at a time. In this edition, we will analyze the AFC East.

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The Case for Chase: 2021’s Sure Thing

Dynasty / By /

Get familiar with 2021’s closest sure thing. Ja’Marr Chase is the best wide receiver prospect we’ve seen since Julio Jones. No really, Julio Jones. Chase checks all the boxes we look for in wide receiver prospects and then some. Let’s first look at his draft capital. Draft capital is a great indication of what an NFL team thinks of a prospect and just how much they like (or don’t like) him. The Bengals made Chase the fifth overall selection on April 29th. What other receivers have been drafted with such elite draft capital? (All Data is from 2010-2021)

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Sam Darnold to Carolina: Rapid Reaction

Dynasty / By /

The 2021 offseason has been an eventful one, especially for the quarterback position. Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, and Jared Goff have changed teams. Dak Prescott has received a massive contract extension. Deshaun Watson has threatened a holdout. San Francisco has traded up in the NFL Draft to secure their franchise quarterback. Now the Carolina Panthers have stolen the spotlight, trading a 2021 sixth-round pick, a 2022 second-round pick, and a 2022 fourth-round pick for New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold. 

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A.J. Brown: Big Winner in Free Agency

Dynasty / By /

As the first week in NFL Free Agency has come and gone, dynasty owners can now sit back and take in all that transpired. In general, the highly anticipated free agency period did not quite live up to the hype. There were not as many big splash landings as the dynasty community had hoped for. The reduced salary cap played a significant role in the lack of major long-term contracts we have come to expect when big names hit the open market. With that said, some moves do spark some excitement in terms of fantasy football.

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Welcome to New York: Corey Davis

Dynasty / By /

Joe Douglas gets his first free agent of 2021 as the Jets finally look to rebuild their organization after two years of tearing it down. The Twitter analysts are on both sides of the good and the bad for his fantasy value, but the one thing everyone agrees on is the value of the contract. The Jets didn’t blow the bank open for the biggest name (yet) but instead charged along “Joe Douglas” way by finding the value in the market. Davis didn’t start to show signs of being worth his first-round pick until last year which was his fourth year in the league.

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DK Metcalf vs. A.J. Brown

DK Metcalf vs. A.J. Brown: Which Ole Miss WR is Better?

Dynasty / By /

Believe it or not, Ole Miss is not known for producing great wide receiver talent. In fact, outside of Eli Manning and Evan Engram, they haven’t produced many fantasy-relevant players. After the 2019 NFL Draft, that changed. A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf were taken with the 51st and 64th picks, respectively. In year one, Brown finished as WR21, and Metcalf finished as WR33:impressive considering rookie wide receivers don’t usually break out until the back half of the season. The two both jumped up in the rankings and flipped positions in year two with Metcalf finishing as WR7 outpacing Brown who came in at WR12. 

Both receivers find themselves as top ten dynasty assets entering the 2021 season. However, the fantasy community is divided on which player is better.

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Start/Sit Week 16

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Congratulations on making it to your league championship! Take a moment to bask in the glory of your accomplishment… alright, that’s enough. It’s time to get down to business and lock in those championship-winning lineups. In this article, I’ll be covering a handful of players at each position that I believe will either lead you to the promised land or down a path of misery and despair. Let’s dive in!

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 14

Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 14

Dynasty / By /

In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. 

I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.

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