Picking out of the one spot is easy this year in regards to who to take #1 overall, but the strategy following that pick can vary greatly. Below is my thought process as I drafted one of my favorite teams thus far during this off-season. Let me know what you think!
League Settings
14 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 flex, 1 Def, 1 K, 7 Bench
0.5 PPR, TE Premium
1.01 – Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) – No need to overthink this one, CMC is the 1.01 in all formats. No need to overanalyze this one. I’m not worried about his workload changing or his injuries last season.
2.14 – Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) – With the 1.01, I usually assume that I will miss out on the next tier of running backs, which normally means that I will be going the “RB and chill” route or whatever logistical name you want to give it. I was hoping that wide receiver Calvin Ridley would fall to me as he is my WR4 this year but I was fine with Justin Jefferson as my WR6. I’ve been steadily growing on Jefferson this off-season as I continue to believe in Kirk Cousins. It was assumed that since the Vikings were so bad on defense last season that Cousins threw more last year than seasons prior. That wasn’t the case at all so I don’t think we need to be as concerned about his volume as I was earlier this year.
3.01 – AJ Brown (WR – TEN) – I considered Chris Carson at RB as he was the last running back remaining in my tier-three of RBs but I elected to continue to take the higher upside pick at wide receiver in Brown. Brown had all the off-season hype this year, yet somehow Julio Jones seemed to stifle most of it. We need to remember that Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith opened up targets, AJ Brown was fifth in PPG, and was playing injured last season. Plus, it’s always within the realm of possibilities this team throws more as Derrick Henry gets a year older and OC Arthur Smith departed to Atlanta. I feel very good about my first three picks.
4.14 – Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) – The running backs again felt very dried up when I got on the clock. If I went RB it would have been Myles Gaskin but it felt a little early. I wanted Cooper Kupp at this spot as he felt like a very safe WR3 to pair with my top-tier wide receivers in Brown and Jefferson but he was taken two picks ahead of me. So I did a complete 180 and went with a high-risk, high reward pick in Chase. Rookie wide receivers are coming into the NFL more prepared than in seasons past, he is paired with his college QB, outperformed his older college teammate in Justin Jefferson in 2019, and has one of the best rookie profiles in recent years. There is less risk than it appears. Worst case scenario he is the third in line in what appears to be a high volume passing offense.
5.01 – Josh Allen (QB – BUF) – Normally, I am one of the last to fill my quarterback position but I couldn’t ignore the value of my QB2 in the fifth round. If I don’t grab one of the big five QBs that make up tier 1, I will likely be the last to grab a QB this season. Allen may not be as efficient through the air this season but you know he is still the red zone back to own in Buffalo.
6.14 – Raheem Mostert (RB – SF) – I wasn’t opposed to going with another wide receiver here as with this current team I would be fine starting five wide receivers and piecing together my RB2 position later in the draft. However, with my RB26 on the board, it felt like the right time. Mostert is easy to write off as he has been often injured and a part of an RBBC, but I don’t see Mostert’s 12-14 touches going away in this offense. He is the pass-catching RB and has the ability to take any touch to the house with his speed.
7.01 – Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS) – This is the first time in which I questioned my decision-making here as I had other wide receivers ranked higher than Samuel. Jarvis Landry felt like a safer pick this team desperately needed but again I elected to swing big. Samuel is fun because he steps into the offense as the number-two pass catcher after spending last season behind DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. What we tend not to realize though is that Samuel had the best catch rate in the NFL on deep passes last season and ranked tied for first in PFF deep receiving grades. Now pair Samuel with the gunslinger that is Ryan Fitzpatrick and it’s possible Samuel could finish as a borderline WR2.
8.14 – Kenyan Drake (RB – LV) – I almost went Marvin Jones Jr. here but I have tended to fade most of Jacksonville this season as there is just too much unknown with “mastermind” Urban Meyer at the helm. Instead, I elected to shore up my RB room with some high upside backups. I am probably higher on Drake than most but that probably is associated with my lower ranking of Josh Jacobs. I recently talked with a Las Vegas beat reporter who made me feel more confident that this backfield will be more of a split than most would like to hear. Jacobs doesn’t catch passes, is inefficient, and is often banged up. Drake, although also inefficient at times, can be this team’s lead pass-catching back. The Raiders paid up for Drake, they are going to use him.
9.01 – Jamaal Williams (RB – DET) – Williams is going to be involved in this offense. The extent of that involvement is still yet to be seen but in the 9th round, I am okay waiting to find out. This offense is likely bad so his upside is limited. However, with the running backs drying up I wanted to get one more playable player before another two rounds went by. It’s one of the downsides of being at the turn.
10.14 – Cole Beasley (WR – BUF) – Cole Beasley has been in the media for off-the-field political views but we shouldn’t forget that Beasley is very involved in this Bills offense on the field. Beasley was nearly a 1,000-yard receiver last year and likely will push that threshold again. I finally got my playable safe WR.
11.01 – Robert Tonyan (TE – GB) – I believe that Rodgers will be back this season in Green Bay. It might not be for the long term, but for next season Tonyan’s role should be the same. He likely regresses in his efficiency but he could see a progression in his volume as he enters another year as the team’s TE1 Normally I’d wait until the end of the draft to take a tight end but in this TE-premium league teams were already taking their second tight ends.
12.14 – Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG) – I wanted one more possession receiver to fill out my WR room. Shepard should still be the underneath receiver on the Giants especially now that Golden Tate is gone. It isn’t a sexy pick but he is playable on bye weeks.
13.01 – Darrel Williams (RB – KC) – Although Clyde Edwards-Helaire was coming off an injury, Williams still had a 50% touch share in the playoffs last season. Granted CEH was a rookie but if he continues to struggle with pass protection and picking up the playbook, Williams may hang around this season. My strategy at this point in the draft, especially with a draft this early in the off-season, is to take players who could become big-time values if the starters went down with an injury in front of them.
14.14 – Devontae Booker (RB – NYG) – I’m not sure how many more times I need to say that I won’t be taking Saquon Barkley because there is a risk he isn’t ready for Week 1 this season but here I go again. It’s even possible Barkley starts the season on the PUP list and you have the Giants starting running back in Booker. There’s a reason that the Giants signed Booker the first of free agency for $3 million a year. The Giants and Barkley have made it very apparent that they are taking it slow with his rehab.
15.01 – Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF) – Elijah Mitchell is part of a very ambiguous backfield, which is what we want to target in the late rounds of the draft. The most likely scenario is that he is the Raheem Mostert back up which is a valuable role as Mostert is often injured.
16.14 – Cleveland Browns, DST – I’m not going to lie, I rarely play in leagues with defenses or kickers.
17.01 – Taysom Hill (QB – NO) – The Michael Thomas news makes me think that the Saints will go with Taysom Hill at QB. If that’s the case, I believe he is a lock to be a QB1 in fantasy football based on his rushing potential. Felt like a steal at this point in the draft and he is an easy drop if he isn’t the starter come Week 1.
18.14 – Carlos Hyde (RB – JAX) – This was strictly an “I don’t draft kickers” pick. At this point in the off-season, I’d rather have another player who could see more playing time with an injury than draft a kicker when I can just pick one up before Week 1.
Conclusion
Overall, I love my draft and specifically the top of my draft. I have the top RB, a top-three QB, and two top-ten WRs. That core alone should be able to carry me to some wins this season. I love the upside I have in Chase and Samuel but I am lacking some serious WR depth if I run into injury or one of the above doesn’t work out this year. My biggest regret of this draft was drafting Jamaal Williams when I likely should have taken some increased WR depth in Darnell Mooney or Marvin Jones. It will be fun to see how this season plays out but I will be disappointed if this team doesn’t make the playoffs.
Make sure to go check out everyone else’s draft reviews to hear their thoughts and strategies from different pick slots. You can view all the mock drafts in the world but if you don’t understand the thought processes behind them then it doesn’t matter much.
Feel free to reach out with any questions about my thought process on Twitter: @zachpav42. I also work primarily as the injury expert so feel free to message me any time with any injury concerns during or leading up to this season.
-Zach Pavlichek, PT, DPT.
