As the first week in NFL Free Agency has come and gone, dynasty owners can now sit back and take in all that transpired. In general, the highly anticipated free agency period did not quite live up to the hype. There were not as many big splash landings as the dynasty community had hoped for. The reduced salary cap played a significant role in the lack of major long-term contracts we have come to expect when big names hit the open market. With that said, some moves do spark some excitement in terms of fantasy football.
Curtis Samuel’s signing in Washington (3-years, $34.5 million) creates a fun offense to watch with the newly acquired Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Will Fuller heading to Miami(1-year, $10.625 million) provides QB Tua Tagovailoa with an explosive threat opposite DeVante Parker for an upstart Dolphins team. Corey Davis (3-years, $37.5 million) cashed in on his solid 2020 and now has the opportunity to be the alpha WR for the New York Jets. Corey Davis and to a lesser extent, Jonnu Smith leaving Tennessee can potentially elevate their former teammate to enormous fantasy heights.
A Rising Star in an Ideal Situation
A.J. Brown is an absolute beast. Yes, that is some high-quality player analysis right there. Seriously though, this man is just on another level. Every so often, a player will come along who is just flat-out rare. Brown is one of those players. He makes plays that are impossible to make. Brown is a significant matchup problem in the league and will be for many years. You can’t press him at the line; he is too physical. He has the speed to beat you deep and possesses the leaping ability to high point balls against any defender out there.
Since entering the league in 2019, Brown has posted back-to-back years over 1,000 yards receiving with north of 15 yards per catch both years (20.2 in 2019). The situation could not get much better for dynasty owners. Brown is currently in the 11-13 range in overall dynasty ADP, and with the departure of his teammates, there is a real chance we could be looking at the WR1 in dynasty this time next March. QB Ryan Tannehill has played great since taking over as the starter in 2019, and his solid play to go along with all the vacated targets could create a formula for monster numbers in 2021 for Brown.Â
Speaking of Vacated Targets
In 2020 A.J. Brown was eighth in the NFL in target share percentage (25.8%). Even with a high target share, Brown only had one game in the regular season with double-digit targets. With Corey Davis now out of the mix, the total targets will presumably go up in a substantial way for Brown. Davis (14 games played) leaves behind 92 targets, good for a 23.1% target share in 2020. Why does this matter? Brown is already a hyper-efficient WR on a target level that is not elite.
A boost in the overall number of targets will mean more opportunities for Brown to post 100-yard games on a more consistent basis than we have seen from him thus far in his career. Double-digit targets are likely to be the norm in 2021 for Brown, and that is undoubtedly going to place him in an unbelievable situation to excel in his third season. Jonnu Smith’s 65 vacated targets are not as big a deal in terms of raw numbers, but he was still one of Tannehill’s top options in an offense where the targets were condensed.
Titans Did Not Add Another High-Profile Pass-Catcher
With Davis and Smith’s departure, the Titans did not add much to their receiving game. Former Rams WR Josh Reynolds signed a one-year deal with the Titans and will likely serve as Davis’s replacement. Although it is possible, Tennessee does address the WR position in the draft; as it stands right now, Reynolds will be playing alongside Brown. Reynolds does get his opportunity to show he is more than a role player, but he is no threat to A.J. Brown’s expected increase in targets. Reynolds had a career year in 2020 (52/618/2) and is a decent addition for the Titans as a football team.
In terms of fantasy relevance, he may have some utility on occasion but make no mistake; A.J. Brown will dominate this offense through the air. With the Titans promoting TE coach Todd Downing to offensive coordinator, it will be interesting to see how this offense functions next season. Derrick Henry is still the focus of the offense, as he should be, but do not let that sway you from viewing Brown as a prime candidate to bust out in a significant way in 2021.
The Bottom Line for A.J. Brown
After undergoing surgery on both knees early in the offseason, Brown has plenty of time to be ready to roll as summer nears. The stage is set, and the situation is ideal. I would be surprised if Brown is not discussed as the most valuable WR to own in dynasty at some point in 2021. There is an argument to have him in that discussion already right now.
Assuming health, Brown has the opportunity to take his game to a ridiculous level. He already had a sky-high ceiling in fantasy, and now, with a chance to elevate his floor even further, I believe there is a strong possibility for 90+ receptions next season. That would be a giant leap from the first couple of years in his career, but when you’re talking about this type of player, it is not unreasonable to expect this type of leap. If you own Brown in dynasty, it should take a substantial offer for you to entertain the thought of moving him. He should be viewed as a high-end WR1 in all formats for 2021.Â
2021 Bold Projection: 93/1,460/10
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