In terms of percentage, Week 4 was the worst week for “Paul’s Picks” so far this season. However, I will revel in my Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Dawson Knox, Kirk Cousins, Damien Harris, Brandin Cooks, and Rondale Moore takes for just a moment… Okay, that’s enough–we’re on to Week 5. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.

Let’s get into the picks.

Starts: Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold, Panthers vs. Eagles

Through four weeks, Sam Darnold leads the league in rushing TDs. That stat perfectly illustrates the absurdity of the NFL, but it is not the reason Sam Darnold is a start this week. I’m more interested in his efficiency. Darnold has completed over 66% of his passes in every game this season, and he’s topped 300 passing yards in three straight. Now he gets a home matchup against the Eagles, who have allowed over 40 points in back-to-back games. 

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars vs. Titans

So far, Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been able to break through as a true fantasy asset. However, he should have the chance to make an impact when the Jaguars host the Titans in Week 5. On the season, Tennessee is allowing 266 passing yards per game and the 4th-most yards per attempt. After his own slow start to the season, rookie Zach Wilson carved up Tennessee’s defense in Week 4, and I expect Lawrence to do the same.

Starts: Running Backs

Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers vs. Dolphins

With each passing week, Leonard Fournette’s grip on the Tampa Bay backfield seems to grow stronger. In Week 4, he carried the ball 20 times while Ronald Jones handled just 6 attempts. Fournette also has a solid floor as a receiver; he has recorded at least 3 receptions in 11 of his last 12 games, dating back to 2020. As a home favorite against the Dolphins, who are allowing the 6th-most rushing yards per game, Fournette is an easy start. 

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers vs. Eagles

In his first career start, Chuba Hubbard wasn’t flashy, but he was serviceable. He averaged a healthy 4.4 YPC on 13 attempts and added 2 receptions for 14 yards. More importantly, he reassured fantasy managers with his 60% opportunity share that he is the de facto starter while Christian McCaffrey is out. You can expect a better performance against Philadelphia, who have allowed Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tony Pollard, and Ezekiel Elliott to rack up nearly 250 rushing yards (at over 5.0 YPC) over the past two weeks. 

Damien Harris, Patriots @ Texans

After facing back-to-back brutal matchups, Damien Harris is finally set up for success in Week 5. The Patriots are big favorites against the Texans, who are allowing the 5th-most rushing yards per game. We still can’t expect much from Harris in the receiving game, but 20 carries and 100+ rushing yards is well within the range of outcomes this week.

Starts: Wide Receivers

Laviska Shenault, Jaguars vs. Titans

If Trevor Lawrence tears it up in Week 5, it only stands to reason that one of his receivers will find success as well. Marvin Jones is a solid start in his own right, but I believe Laviska Shenault has significant upside in the absence of DJ Chark. After Chark went down in Week 4, Shenault turned 7 targets into 6 receptions for 99 yards while recording season-highs in yards per target and yards per reception. 

Corey Davis, Jets @ Falcons

Rookie quarterbacks tend to be highly volatile, which makes their weapons hard to trust. However, Corey Davis has put together a couple of usable fantasy outings so far this season, and I believe he’s capable of delivering once again in Week 5. The Falcons have allowed the 5th-most points to WRs this season, and Davis has seen at least 100 air yards in 3 out of 4 games. Put those two stats together and you’ve got yourself a high-upside flex play.

Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins @ Buccaneers

Jaylen Waddle hasn’t delivered any splash performances yet, but his peripheral numbers are highly encouraging. He has a 21.2% target share, and he ranks 12th among WRs in receptions. The issue has been efficiency. Waddle ranks outside the top-50 in receiving yards because his targets have come close to the line of scrimmage. However, with the entire Buccaneers’ secondary banged up, I believe Waddle can produce in Week 5 through sheer volume. In a negative game script, the Dolphins will be forced to throw. Eventually, with enough targets, Waddle will come through with a big play or TD. 

Starts: Tight Ends

Dawson Knox, Bills @ Chiefs

Alright, I guess Dawson Knox is happening. He’s increased his target total in each of the past three weeks, scoring 4 TDs in the process. As an integral part of one of the league’s best passing offenses, Knox should be a startable TE option each and every week moving forward. I expect him to thrive in a high-scoring matchup against the Chiefs, who just allowed Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz to combine for 116 yards in Week 4.

Sits: Quarterbacks

Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Bears

After three straight games with over 380 passing yards, Derek Carr finally came back down to earth in Week 4. He really struggled against the Chargers, managing just 196 yards on 34 attempts. I think the real Derek Carr lies somewhere in between his red-hot start and his recent dud performance, and that is just not a player that I’m excited to start in 1QB formats. Bench Carr against the Bears. 

Justin Fields, Bears @ Raiders

Across his first two NFL starts, Justin Fields threw for just 277 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT. He also rushed for just 21 yards, which is perhaps even more concerning. Now, I’m not declaring Fields a bust after two games. I believe that he has what it takes to succeed in the NFL. However, whether his recent struggles are due to Matt Nagy’s coaching or his own inexperience, they won’t disappear overnight. At this point, I’m adopting a wait-and-see approach with Fields.

Sits: Running Backs

Myles Gaskin, Dolphins @ Buccaneers 

Despite being perfectly healthy, Myles Gaskin’s opportunity share in Week 4 was just 12.5%. His previous low on the season was 41.6%. I’m not sure why Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed led the way for Miami in Week 4, but you simply cannot start Gaskin with any sort of confidence right now, especially against this smothering Buccaneers’ run defense.  

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs vs. Bills 

Yes, I am aware that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances. However, he has just 7 receptions for 50 yards on the season, and his opportunity share has decreased each week. His Week 5 opponent, the Buffalo Bills, have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy PPG to RBs this season, as well as the 4th-lowest rushing YPG. You may be forced to start CEH this week, but you shouldn’t expect much.

Sits: Wide Receivers

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers @ Cardinals

In case you’ve forgotten, Brandon Aiyuk is not startable. He’s more involved in the offense now than he was earlier in the season, but he’s still not seeing anything close to the usage many predicted this offseason. And having Trey Lance under center will not help matters. His propensity to run the ball will inevitably lead to fewer pass attempts, further narrowing Aiyuk’s path to fantasy relevance. You can’t drop him just yet, but you also can’t trust him, unfortunately. 

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers vs. Broncos

The deterioration of Ben Roethlisberger has really capped the upside of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool. Excluding the game that he left early with an injury, JuJu is averaging 4 receptions and 35 receiving yards per game. For some context, Kalif Raymond and Kendrick Bourne are averaging 45 YPG. It’s time to look beyond the name and put JuJu on the bench.

Sits: Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan, Packers @ Bengals

Hopefully, no one is considering Robert Tonyan at this point. After all, he’s been held under 10 yards receiving in 3 out of 4 games this season. But the TE position is incredibly shallow, so you may be holding out some hope if you drafted Tonyan highly. It’s time to move on. Tonyan ranks outside the top 20 TEs in target share, receptions, receiving yards, catch rate, and, most importantly, fantasy PPG. 

Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.

You can read the previous articles in this series here:  Week 1, Week 2, Week 3, Week 4