Paul’s Picks – Week 3

Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Cortland Sutton, and Mike Williams were big hits in Week 2, and sitting Saquon Barkley and Brandon Aiyuk worked out nicely. Elijah Mitchell had some bad luck near the goal line, I was evidently wrong to doubt Michael Pittman, and I might have to give up on Marquez Callaway. But now we’re on to Week 3. As always, I’ll be bringing you names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat.

Let’s get into the picks.

Starts: Quarterbacks

Justin Fields, Bears @ Browns

If you are a Bears fan, you have my permission to get excited. Justin Fields will start in place of Andy Dalton this Sunday, and I believe that he will hold onto that job permanently. For fantasy, Fields is especially tantalizing due to his rushing ability. In limited action in Week 2, Fields rushed 10 times for 31 yards. Even if he gets off to a shaky start as a passer, Fields is in the QB1 discussion this week. 

Daniel Jones, Giants vs. Falcons

Through two weeks, Tom Brady is the QB3 with 9 TD passes while Daniel Jones is the QB5 with 2 TD passes. They are separated by just 8 fantasy points. Why? Rushing. Jones has already piled up 117 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs this season. The yardage pace isn’t sustainable, but his 7.5 rushes per game certainly is. When you pair the mobility with decent weapons and a date with Falcons, it’s easy to see Jones as a high-end QB2 this week.

Starts: Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs vs. Chargers

The good news for Clyde Edwards-Helaire is that he has a 76.9% opportunity share through two weeks, which ranks 6th among all RBs. The bad news is that the Chiefs just haven’t used their RBs very much, especially in the passing game. Still, it’s too early to panic on a player seeing 13-17 touches per game in one of the league’s best offenses. Better days are ahead. 

Saquon Barkley, Giants vs. Falcons

I’m calling it right now–this is the Saquon Barkley breakout performance we’ve all been waiting for. Barkley handled 84% of the snaps in Week 2 against Washington, but he couldn’t get much going outside of a long run early in the game. Now, with ten days of rest and a soft matchup against Atlanta, Barkley should be ready to feast. Roll him out with confidence this week.

Elijah Mitchell, 49ers vs. Packers

At this point, we don’t know for sure if Elijah Mitchell will be good to go for Sunday’s matchup against the Packers. If he does play, though, you should be starting him. He touched the ball 19 times against the Eagles, which accounted for 62.3% of the RB opportunities. Now JaMycal Hasty and Trey Sermon are injured. That type of volume is hard to leave on the bench, even when a player is banged up.

Starts: Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown, Titans vs. Colts

With just 92 receiving yards through two games, A.J. Brown has had an underwhelming start to the season. His catch rate has been low, and the whole Titans’ offense has looked out of sync at times. However, we know that A.J. Brown is an elite talent at the position, and he’s run the 12th most routes at the position. Keep him in your lineup against the Colts.

Rondale Moore, Cardinals @ Jaguars

Rondale Moore’s NFL career is off to an excellent start. In fact, he’s seen more targets than DeAndre Hopkins through two games. We shouldn’t expect that trend to continue, but we should expect more boom games from Moore throughout the season. He’s an every-week starter moving forward, especially with Kyler Murray playing at an MVP level.

Marvin Jones, Jaguars vs. Cardinals

Marvin Jones has been Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target early in the season. So far, he’s been far more efficient than DJ Chark or Laviska Shenault, turning 20 targets into 11 receptions for 132 yards and 2 TDs. The Jaguars will be forced to air it out once again this Sunday when they face Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, so Marvin Jones could be in for double-digit targets and another solid fantasy performance. 

Starts: Tight Ends

David Njoku, Browns vs. Bears

Well, the tight end position is an absolute wasteland once again. If you’re desperate for a streaming option this week, you could turn to David Njoku. He’s seen 16.7% of Baker Mayfield’s targets, which somehow ranks 9th at the position. And with Jarvis Landry hitting the IR, it’s possible that Njoku will see even more targets in the short to intermediate part of the field. You could do worse, which is really all you can ask for with tight ends.  

Sits: Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow, Bengals @ Steelers

There are a lot of red flags with Joe Burrow this week. First and foremost, he has to go on the road to face the Steelers. Admittedly, they didn’t look great against Derek Carr in Week 2, but they did a great job stifling Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 1. Furthermore, the Bengals have also been much more run-heavy in neutral game situations this season than they were in 2020. If Ben Roethlisberger and Diontae Johnson are forced to miss this game and the score remains close, Joe Burrow might not attempt many passes. 

Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Dolphins

Derek Carr has had an impressive start to the season. In fact, he’s leading the league in passing yards by an absurd 128 yards after two games. However, he could come back down to earth against the Dolphins in Week 3. Not only do the Dolphins rank 10th against fantasy QBs so far this season, but they’ll also be without Tua Tagovailoa, which will likely lead to a lower-scoring game. There should be options with more upside available on the waiver wire.

Sits: Running Backs

Damien Harris, Patriots vs. Saints

Damien Harris is getting a ton of volume on the ground and very little through the air, just as we expected heading into the season. That’s going to hurt him against the Saints, who have held Aaron Jones and Christian McCaffrey to 3.0 YPC or lower in back-to-back weeks. Unless Harris finds the end zone, he’s going to burn you.

Devin Singletary, Bills vs. Washington

Devin Singletary has been a pleasant surprise. However, I don’t know if he can keep the good times rolling against Washington in Week 3. Zack Moss handled the goal line work in Week 2, and Singletary hasn’t exceeded 10 receiving yards in either game this season. So where’s the upside? Twelve carries between the 20’s against this tough Washington defense isn’t going to turn any heads.

Sits: Wide Receivers

Laviska Shenault, Jaguars vs. Cardinals

I love Laviska Shenault as a talent, but I hate his role in Urban Meyer’s offense. His average target distance, air yards share, and yards per reception all rank outside the top 80 at the position. He’s playing almost entirely out of the slot and very close to the line of scrimmage. Now he’s dealing with an injury, as well. You’re better off adopting a wait-and-see approach with Shenault. 

Corey Davis, Jets @ Broncos

On paper, Corey Davis was excellent in Week 1, but he only had an 18.9% target share. That number dipped below 16% in Week 2. With an inefficient rookie QB, Davis is going to need a much higher market share to produce consistently. Now the Jets have to face the Broncos, another team with a tough defense, in a game with a very low Vegas point total. Gross.

Sits: Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan, Packers @ 49ers

Robert Tonyan scored a TD in Week 2, but he’s been unimpressive otherwise. He has just 7 targets and 60 receiving yards across two games. Now he gets to face the 49ers, who held Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz to a combined 30 yards in Week 2. If he can’t find the end zone, you’re going to be disappointed.

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