baker mayfield

baker

One Question For EVERY NFL Team: NFC South Edition

Welcome back to my “One Question” series, and thank you to everyone who read last week’s AFC South edition — are you buying Cam Ward’s redemption story? Let’s stay in the South, but make our way to the NFC. The NFC South has no shortage of playmakers — guys like Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Chris Olave, Travis Etienne, Emeka Egbuka, Tetairoa McMillan, and Jonathan Brooks have fantasy players in a frenzy to add them to their teams. The only real question with this division is: what will their quarterbacks do this year? Can Baker earn another payday with Tampa Bay, or will his contract situation linger into the season? Can Bryce Young take the next step, or is he who we think he is? Will either QB in Atlanta be good enough to elevate their skill players? And is Tyler Shough the real deal, or was 2025 just a flash in the pan?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers look like the team to beat in the NFC South, but was last year’s brutal Week 18 loss to division rival Carolina Panthers the beginning of the end? Tampa Bay has been active this offseason, bringing in new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and signing running back Kenneth Gainwell. But there’s been no shortage of drama, as Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) goes into the season without a new deal and has been vocal about his displeasure. Two-time Pro Bowler Vita Vea (DT – TB) requested a trade after not getting a new deal — thankfully, that got reconciled quickly with a one-year contract. Between the new OC, the loss of Mike Evans (WR – SF), Emeka Egbuka’s (WR – TB) toe injury, and a disgruntled quarterback, a lot is riding on 2026 in Tampa. And it starts with figuring out Mayfield’s future.

My question for the Buccaneers is: Should Tampa Bay re-sign Baker Mayfield?

After a promising start in Cleveland, things went south for Baker out of nowhere. After winning their first playoff game in 26 years, he suffered an injury the following season, played through it rather than have surgery, and it likely cost him his job. Things got worse when the Browns pursued Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE) while Baker was still on the roster. Cleveland traded for Watson, dealt Baker to Carolina, and the rest is history.

Baker joined former first-round pick Sam Darnold (QB – SEA) in what looked like a fresh start. It didn’t last. He won the job over Darnold in the preseason, suffered another injury, and played through it again. The Panthers went a dismal 1-5 in games he started. He requested a release, and the Rams picked him up — and that’s when things turned around.

Baker landed with a Rams team, the defending Super Bowl champions, desperate at quarterback of their own. It only took 48 hours for him to make his presence felt. Starter John Wolford, playing through a neck injury, went three-and-out on the Rams’ first series, and the coaching staff pulled him to protect him. Baker took over and led the Rams back from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit, capped by a 98-yard drive with no timeouts to steal the win.

Baker’s Rams stint ended at 2-3, highlighted by a Christmas Day 51-14 win. His next opportunity wasn’t far behind. In 2023, he was part of another QB battle, this time in Tampa Bay, on a one-year “prove-it” deal against Kyle Trask (QB – TB). He won the job, helped the Buccaneers win the division and a playoff game, and earned a three-year, $100 million extension the following offseason.

But as resilient as Baker is…can he win when it matters? In five playoff appearances, he’s 2-3, and his teams held fourth-quarter leads in two of those three losses. In the divisional round against Washington, a bad exchange with Jalen McMillan (WR – TB) led to a fumble and a short-field touchdown. His playoff woes go back to Oklahoma too, where he lost both of his playoff games.

But does that mean he’s not a franchise quarterback? Not so fast! Let’s look at Baker’s resume: the first walk-on player in college football history to win the Heisman, led Oklahoma to two playoff appearances, was the number one overall pick, guided Cleveland to their first playoff victory in 26 years, won a QB battle, won two playoff games, and won two division titles after taking over for Tom Brady.

My question for Tampa Bay: Should they re-sign Baker Mayfield?

My answer: If they don’t, someone else will — and he’ll make you regret it.

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purdy

When to Target Quarterbacks in 1QB Redraft Leagues

With today’s article, I’m going to look at the average draft position (ADP) of quarterbacks for 1QB leagues in 2025. My goal is to find the ideal ADP windows to target the quarterback position in this particular format. 

I looked at the top 96 overall players in 2025, and 14 quarterbacks were taken on average in the top 96. I looked to see how each player did based on their draft position. I am using Sleepers’ ADP for this exercise.

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dak

Projecting Top Fantasy QBs for 2026

In this article, I’ll be reviewing data from the past four seasons to predict the next top 12 fantasy football quarterbacks. I started by analyzing the top 12 quarterbacks by points per game in each season for the past 4 seasons, identifying a total of 26 players.

Next, I focused on quarterbacks who achieved multiple top 12 seasons — not just one-hit wonders. This narrowed the list to 15 total quarterbacks.

Josh Allen Patrick Mahomes Brock Purdy Jalen Hurts
Lamar Jackson Dak Prescott Trevor Lawrence Bo Nix
Daniel Jones Joe Burrow Baker Mayfield Jared Goff
Kyler Murray Jordan Love Tua Tagovailoa

These are the 15 guys I will be looking at closely in this article. 

    • 15/15 averaged more than 23 PPR in their best college season
    • 15/15 threw for more than 5000 yards in their college career
    • 15/15 threw for more than 40 touchdowns in their college career
    • 14/15 passed for more than 175 yards a game (Hurts)
    • 14/15 rushed for more than 10 yards a game (Goff)

  • 14/15 averaged more than 20 PPR a game in their college career (Love)
  • 14/15 had more than 2 touchdowns to interceptions ratio (Jones)
  • 14/15 had more than 300 rushing yards in college (Goff)
  • Description.

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young

QBs on the Chopping Block: Planning for the 2027 Class

There was an interesting question posed by a subscriber in our DFF Discord this past weekend, following this tweet being posted:  Seeing the potential that the 2027 draft class has at the quarterback position, Josh asked this:  It’s an excellent question, and one we need to be asking ourselves for dynasty purposes. Obviously, a good number of guys from McShay’s list above either won’t pan out as first-round talents or will elect to stay in college for the 2027 season if they have remaining eligibility. But there are additional guys not on this list who could end up being first-round selections. Josh Hoover. John Mateer. Maybe DJ Lagway finally has that breakout season everyone’s been waiting for. Maybe Drew Mestemaker’s G5 dominance carries over into the P4, and he emerges as a top pick. It’s hard to project any of this so far out, but for the sake of this exercise, let’s take McShay at his word and treat the 2027 QB class as the “historic” one he’s calling it. Who will these quarterbacks be taking over for? Let’s take a look at the guys whose jobs may not be as secure as we think. These names may be good sell candidates in dynasty for you, especially on a team that’s rebuilding or retooling.  The Top “Cut” Candidates I’ll kick off my list by covering the quarterbacks I feel have the most to prove this coming season and will likely be out of a starting job by 2027 or sooner.  Geno Smith (NYJ) – Geno is the most obvious quarterback […]

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Cam Ward

Dynasty Football Factory League of Record: Startup Draft – Round 4

Round 4 jumped off the rails as seven of the 12 picks selected came via trade. By far the most active part of the startup, the movement here set the tone for the rest of the draft. At this point, the feeling out portion had concluded and it was officially game on – Round 4 of 5 was fireworks personified.

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Derek Carr

Week 13 Starts/Sits

It’s “Bye-apocalypse” Part 2. We’re short key stable options this week. It’s officially December and that means updated DFS NFL odds and the final month of the Dynasty Fantasy Football season. So, just like last time, we’re cutting back on the sits and only doing two sits per position. It’s time for our ~FREE~ Week 13 edition of Dynasty Start/Sits!

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Sam Howell

Week 11 Starts/Sits

Welcome back for your Week 11 edition of Dynasty Start/Sits. Another week, another QB is out for the year. Finding reliable QB production feels as hard as it’s ever been. However, no matter the position, I’ve got you covered! Let’s get into our Week 11 Starts/Sits.

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Rashaad Penny

Training Camp Buzz 1.0

Are you ready for some football? It is training camp season, and I couldn’t be more excited. It’s time to see how the rookies we have spent all off-season analyzing stack up to the next level of competition. It’s time to see who wins training camp battles. Hopefully, it’s not time to see an abundance of injury-related news. We know not everyone has hours to spend on Twitter. There is a lot of propaganda to weed through to truly find out what matters. The rest of this month, I will weed through what I feel matters to you, our reader, and what is just coach speak or media sensationalism.

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Kyle Pitts

Comparing ADP, Dynasty to Redraft: NFC South

A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking, “Well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYJ), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DEN), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty, he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over eight parts (one part for each division), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.

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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy: Buy or Sell?

It is time to rethink how to approach “buy or sell” articles. The simple reasons to buy and reasons to sell are followed by a verdict that ignores roster construction. It becomes a stock market, which in theory there is a lot of that to Dynasty Fantasy Football. Still, I also want to win championships, and poorly constructed rosters that have won all these trades but still have massive holes on their roster are not the ones that pull that off. The season gets messy, we need depth, and we players across all position groups to be successful. Not just winning a bunch of trades to have seven startable WRs while we are rolling out some 3rd down back as our RB1 while my WR5 scores all these points on the bench. Our subject today Brock Purdy, feels more nuanced discussion than a simple buy or sell discussion would provide. Context is important and for our purposes, roster construction is our context.

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Juwan Johnson

Positional Hot Spots in Pre-Draft Best Ball

At this time of year, the NFL Fantasy Football space is dominated by Dynasty content. Everybody is talking about free agency, The Combine, and NFL Mock Drafts while Redraft season is a million miles away. Don’t get me wrong, I love rookie hype and lopsided trade offers as much as the next guy, but I also love to draft. And I assume you feel the same way; otherwise, you wouldn’t have clicked on this article. In my opinion, the best way to scratch that itch is with pre-draft Best Ball.

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NFC Free Agent Signings

NFL Free Agency is finally here! And it has been quite a whirlwind so far. In this article, I will be recapping a lot of the major moves that affect NFC teams as well as breaking down fantasy football implications and assigning an impact level. I will rate the move either low, medium, or high impact to help show how much you should care about the move and the consequences it comes with. Now that you know what you will be getting into let us dive right in.

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