While the fantasy season has technically come to an end, Dynasty football doesn’t sleep. To maximize roster value on your Dynasty teams, it’s essential to always be dialed in to how the Dynasty community views certain players to take advantage of market inefficiencies when they arise. KeepTradeCut is a crowdsourced Dynasty ranking platform that gives us a good idea of how our league mates value assets. In today’s article, I wanted to discuss five veteran players I think are overvalued on KeepTradeCut, and I’d be looking to sell while their price is inflated. I’ll give my reasoning as to why I feel like each of these guys will not provide you a full return on investment based on their current price tag.
With the rankings you see, keep in mind that KeepTradeCut has not added the 2025 rookie class yet, so some of these guys will fall down the positional and overall ranks a few spots once this occurs.
Jayden Reed (WR – Green Bay Packers)
WR30, 71st overall
This is a player I discussed with Chris (@force_fantasy) in our DFF Dynasty startup draft. Chris pointed out that Jayden’s target share numbers are so low because his route participation has been low; he actually has a decent target rate (TPRR). This is true, but the lack of routes run in this offense is concerning for me. If Reed was viewed as the clear WR1 in this GB offense, you’d think he’d see a route participation much higher than 71.6%, which is where he finished in 2024. Fun fact: Jayden Reed has only seen more than 8 targets once in 36 career games.
Reed feels to me like a Deebo Samuel (not prime Deebo), where he needs manufactured touches to score fantasy points. Reed saw a drop in targets, receptions, touchdowns, and fantasy points in Year 2. He averaged 11.4 FPPG in 2024 compared to 13.6 FPPG in 2023 (Full-PPR). Even worse, his expected FPPG was just 9.7 this past season, so he overperformed compared to expectations. If you need to be hyper-efficient just to crack double-digit fantasy points per week, you’re not worth a 6th/7th round startup pick to me.
Baker Mayfield (QB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
QB14, 37th overall
Baker had an incredible 2024 season; there’s no denying it. The guy deserves his props. Right when everyone in the Dynasty community was ready to write him off, Baker had a career year, finishing as the QB4 with 22.1 FPPG. While I admit I was far too low on Baker last year, I think we have to pump the brakes a bit on Baker being a borderline Top 40 Dynasty asset overall.
We can’t reasonably expect Mayfield to follow up his 2024 season with numbers close to this in 2025. Too many things are working against him. The ageless Mike Evans is now a year older and in his final season on contract (he has to start declining sometime, right?). Chris Godwin is a free agent this offseason. Former OC Liam Coen is gone as well. Baker does have a couple of young promising rookies to rely on in Bucky Irving and Jalen McMillan – I’m not saying the situation is dire by any means – it’s just a much different situation.
Mayfield had 41 passing touchdowns this year but never threw for 30 TDs or averaged 18 FPPG in any season prior. Baker finished 2024 with a touchdown rate of 7.2%, which was second in the NFL behind only Lamar Jackson. This is not a sustainable mark over one’s career, and we’ll surely see regression in the touchdown department in 2025. (Lamar finished with an absurd 8.6% TD rate, so we can expect regression there as well.) What does excite me about Mayfield was his uptick in rushing production this year. He averaged over 3 FPPG on the ground, far more than any prior season.
Isiah Pacheco (RB – Kansas City Chiefs)
RB21, 89th overall
The Dynasty community is finally starting to catch on to Pacheco’s days being numbered, as his KTC ranking has steadily been falling for months. I just don’t see a scenario where Pacheco is a workhorse in 2025. After returning from injury this season, Pacheco was incredibly inefficient as a rusher. He simply doesn’t appear to be the same player. There are 20+ RBs in this upcoming NFL draft who could seriously compete for Pacheco’s job if Kansas City elects to draft a rookie RB.
Pacheco has far exceeded all NFL expectations for him, coming into the league as a Round 7 selection and a complete afterthought. If you drafted Pacheco in your rookie drafts or picked him up off waivers back in 2022, congrats, you already won. Now is the time to sell him before his rookie contract is up, and people realize he’s a backup at best moving forward. Try and find that league mate who thinks Pacheco still has RB2 upside and get out while you can.
David Montgomery (RB – Detroit Lions)
RB16, 75th overall
David Montgomery is coming off an injury-riddled Year 6, where he battled knee and shoulder injuries. Despite this, he managed to post his highest FPPG average since 2021, with 15.0 (Full-PPR). In general, I think the Dynasty community views Monty as a reliable fantasy back on a secure contract who is live to score double-digit touchdowns every season. This has mostly been the case in the past two seasons, but let’s also keep in mind that this is an RB entering his age 28 season and coming off an MCL injury. His best days could very well be behind him, and I for one don’t want to be the league owner holding the bag if this is the case. If Monty fails to produce in 2025, the Lions could save $3.5M by cutting him at season’s end or $8M by cutting him after 2026.
Jahmyr Gibbs is clearly the alpha in this backfield and arguably the Dynasty RB1 overall. Best case scenario, Monty is still the 1B to Gibbs’ 1A. Post-injury, I expect Montgomery’s workload to continue lessening, and I expect most of his touches will be low-value touches (between the 20s). Jahmyr has proven to be effective in the redzone and should be the go-to guy in most cases when it’s time to score.
Chase Brown (RB – Cincinnati Bengals)
RB12, 56th overall
Yes, I do have three RBs on my “sell high” list. This is partially because of how truly talented the 2025 RB class is. If you aren’t a Top 5 RB in the NFL today, your job could be in jeopardy. I actually had Brown as a buy-low prospect in an in-season article a few months ago, as it was apparent he was a better rusher than Zack Moss. So please don’t get me wrong; I believe Chase Brown is talented. I just think he carries significant long-term risk, given the price you are paying.
I don’t expect Cincinnati to spend an early draft pick on an RB; they have too many other holes to fill. However, I do expect them to take an RB at some point in the NFL Draft. This RB class is so deep that teams will be grabbing valuable backs late in Day 3 who still have a shot at making an NFL impact. Looking at the 2025 roster, Cincy has essentially no RB depth. Khalil Herbert, Trayveon Williams, and Chris Evans are all FAs (and none of those guys were world-beaters, anyway). Zack Moss is on contract through 2025 but is coming off a season-ending neck injury and was certifiably terrible when he was healthy. I expect the Bengals to bring in a rookie to, at minimum, lessen the workload for Brown. He won’t be seeing 280+ touches in 2025, and while he was efficient, if he shows any regression next season, Brown will be easy to move on from. He’s still on his rookie deal and was a Day 3 pick. The draft capital makes him very expendable. I think he has plenty left in the tank, but if you can move him for low-end RB1 prices, I’d pull the trigger.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
