Now that the 2023 Dynasty season is coming to a close, it’s time to get a jump on the off-season. In this two-part article that I’ll be dividing into the AFC and NFC, I’ll examine the quarterback room of every team and give my opinion on whether to buy or sell. I’ll be using KeepTradeCut to assess value, as no accurate ADP exists to judge value. This is the second position I’ve evaluated, so you can read my analyses of the AFC RBs and NFC RBs by clicking on their respective hyperlink, as well as the AFC QBs here. Let’s get into it with Prospective Dynasty QBs: NFC.
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions
QB1: Jared Goff: You’re getting 17PPG from Goff whether you like it or not. I don’t see the Lions sticking with Goff past 2024, the last year of his contract, but his performance in the playoffs will have a lot to do with that. Through this next year, the Lions don’t really have any other option, so you can project Goff to be the starter in 2024 and deliver another 17PPG season for you. Slightly overvalued.
Chicago Bears
QB1: Justin Fields: Fields and Goff are back-to-back in KTC value after finishing this season with 18.4PPG. I’ve been a long-standing Fields hater and I’m going to do some hating now—the Chicago Bears should absolutely draft Caleb Williams with the 1st overall pick and reset their clock. If the Bears resign Fields, it will be a monumental mistake for their franchise. Value-wise, however, Fields is properly priced.
Minnesota Vikings
QB1: Kirk Cousins: Undervalued. You’re getting 19PPG from Kirk whether you like it or not. He’s a more talented Jared Goff in an equally pass-happy system. Sure, he’s six years older and coming off an injury, but at his current price (acquirable for a mid-2024 2nd-round pick), he’s a much better value. Check out some trades I made for him this past season:
Green Bay Packers
QB1: Jordan Love: I’ll concede that I was pretty wrong on Love. In true analyst fashion, “My process was correct, the results were wrong.” Still, after Love’s great season, his value skyrocketed all the way to… QB12. He’s a safe enough buy after delivering 19PPG this season and his value is sure to increase once he gets a contract. Currently, I think he’s properly priced.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints
QB1: Derek Carr: Was there a more predictable outcome for the Saints this season under Carr? If you want to trade a 3rd-round pick for him as your QB3, go ahead. I suppose he’s properly priced since he’s tied to the Saints through 2026 and could feasibly deliver 15PPG going forward.
Atlanta Falcons
QB1: ?: Remember when the Falcons openly stated that they weren’t pursuing Lamar Jackson? I wonder how Lamar did this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB1: Baker Mayfield: His value is completely contingent on the contract he gets (or doesn’t get) this off-season. I’m more than willing to shoot out an offer for Baker before he gets that contract (think: late 2nd-round pick) since he was nearly a 17PPG QB this past season. Along with this, the Buccaneers were middle of the pack in passing play percentage this past season (15th) and less than average in pass attempts per game with just 33.4 (20th), meaning Baker wasn’t totally reliant on a high pass rate to sustain his fantasy production. He was just… sorta good. We analysts predicted that the Buccaneers’ passing statistics would regress to the mean this season after posting 43.3 and 45.4 pass attempts per game in 2021 and 2022, respectively (1st and 1st), but we did not expect Baker to step up to the task and deliver 17PPG. If your offers get rejected for late-2nds, I’d be willing to go up to an early 2nd-round pick to get Baker on your squad.
Carolina Panthers
QB1: Bryce Young: Strong buy. I’m not expecting results anytime soon from Bryce, but rookie QBs historically get a lot of leash to try to pull it together. The Panthers squad was bad this year and everyone knew it going in, so it shouldn’t have been any surprise that Young struggled. As the QB17 on KTC, his value is probably at the lowest it’s going to be during the off-season, so I’d buy right now on rebuilding rosters.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles
QB1: Jalen Hurts: Permabuy. Don’t let tush-push narratives get to you.
Dallas Cowboys
QB1: Dak Prescott: Somehow still disrespected on KTC after posting MVP numbers this season. Is nearly 21PPG not enough for you all?
Bonus! QB2: Trey Lance: He’s probably terrible but I’m still holding in deep roster leagues. I promise I’ve adjusted my priors, I’ve just never seen a player be so unfairly maligned before. It’s not like he’s Josh Rosen—bad and horrible attitude—he’s just bad and probably hasn’t gotten a fair shot. Hey, even Sam Darnold still started games in 2022. I’m not saying to unload the clip on Lance, but if your league has 5th-round picks, I’d send one out for him. Or burn the last bit of FAAB on him before your FAAB budget resets.
Washington Commanders
QB1: ?: See: Atlanta Falcons. Reaping, sowing, etc.
New York Giants
QB1: Daniel Jones: The question of what to do with Daniel Jones probably deserves its own article in terms of what the Giants should do, but in terms of what you should do? You should sell. I’ve seen enough from Jones—he does not have what it takes to be an NFL starter nor produce meaningful fantasy points aside from his fluky 2022 season.
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks
QB1: Geno Smith: I don’t see the Seahawks cutting Geno with his $17,400,000 dead cap hit in 2024 (and $8,700,000 dead cap hit in 2025), so he’s got some job security for the foreseeable future even with the departure of Pete Carroll. At 16PPG and being valued around a 2025 late 2nd-round pick, I’d say Geno is a safe, cheap buy for your QB3 slot.
Los Angeles Rams
QB1: Matthew Stafford: Stafford isn’t going anywhere through 2026 and he looks to be totally healed up from the tendonitis that plagued him last season. The time to buy cheaply has passed, as last off-season was the prime time to acquire, but he’s still reasonably priced after delivering 17PPG this past season. KTC says you can trade players like Isaiah Likely and Romeo Doubs for him, so I would swiftly do that.
Arizona Cardinals
QB1: Kyler Murray: Perpetually undervalued. How is he still so cheap? Continue to buy.
San Francisco 49ers
QB1: Brock Purdy: We’ve come too far now. Purdy was a nice value piece and he did deliver 19PPG this past season, but QB10 on KTC? Over Trevor Lawrence? I think this market discrepancy is due to the fact that Lawrence is undervalued rather than Purdy being overvalued, but the point remains—Purdy is just slightly overvalued. I would be trading my Purdys for Kyler or Sam LaPorta in a heartbeat.
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