Dynasty Analysis
The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook. In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered. If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.
I’ve done a bunch of reaction articles throughout the offseason, but they were all from a dynasty lens. At this point in the offseason, the season is in sight, so any moves have a more direct effect on 2020 redraft leagues. We know far more about each team’s depth chart, so it’s far easier to slot any new additions into a role. I broke down the Patriots for redraft in June, but so much has changed since then. The Patriots signed Cam Newton to replace Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. Also, we received news that Sony Michel had offseason foot surgery, leaving him in a race to be ready for the start of the season. That’s where Lamar Miller comes into play. As he’s an older veteran running back, Miller doesn’t carry much dynasty value, but he makes a massive impact on the Patriots’ backfield in 2020. I’ll begin with Miller, and then move into how I’ve moved each other Patriots’ running back based on his signing. Let’s jump into it!
The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, D.J. Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook. In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered. If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.
The original idea of half and full PPR scoring was to even out the production between running backs and wide receivers. In the past, say 15-20 years ago, running backs significantly outscored wide receivers. But, giving points per reception leveled the playing field. I’ll break down whether that’s still true, but that was the primary purpose behind PPR scoring systems. Also, basing scoring on receptions creates more predictability in projecting fantasy points. As always, fantasy leagues are more fun when they reward skill over luck. Specifically, adding PPR scoring reduces the scoring impact of touchdowns, which are highly unpredictable, in favor of receptions, which are highly predictable.
Jarvis Landry was the WR21 in fantasy points per game in a season where Baker Mayfield experienced a decreased yards-per-attempt, completion rate, and touchdown rate. All signs point toward Mayfield taking a step forward this season and the Browns being a much more efficient offense in general. Expect the offense to still run through Landry and the run game, with Odell Beckham providing the electric plays. All contending fantasy teams should be trading for Landry with a WR2 floor and low WR1 upside.
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! Now, I want to take a look at Jamison Crowder. My friend @DocFFN recently wrote a free dynasty profile on Crowder, but I wanted to look at Crowder’s redraft prospects. I also wanted to take more of a long-form approach, as the dynasty free profiles are quick-hitters. Anyway, Crowder might play for the hapless Jets, but I think he deserves some attention as a sleeper for 2020 PPR redraft leagues. Let’s get into why.
As a dynasty asset, I believe Matt Ryan is fairly valued at QB10 by MFL ADP. Because he is 35, his value is sinking, with him being passed up by the younger QB with more perceived upside. However, if you are contending, Matt Ryan is a great option for your team. I believe you can lock Matt Ryan into a top 12 finish in 2020, making him a fantastic QB2 on a SuperFlex team or a very solid QB1 in a standard league. At 35 years old, Ryan still appears to have plenty in the tank. It is safe to bet on Ryan playing for another 3-4 years, but it would also not surprise me if Ryan plays into his 40s like Brady and Brees.
The scarcity of defensive ends that challenge fantasy gamers assembling rosters in conventional-position IDP leagues shifts to the interior in true-position IDP. I’ve ranked 62 interior defensive linemen for 2020 because every IDL with a pulse will eventually appear on fantasy rosters. I calibrated my ranks for 2020 seasonal leagues for 14-team, true-position full-IDP leagues with the scoring settings of FantasyPros.com and 55 roster spots. To that end, I list here 40 interior defensive linemen in the order of value they offer teams starting 11 IDPs including two IDLs. The remaining 22 require additional explanation.
Now, if you’re not careful you may subconsciously find yourself thinking Ebron’s name has been a topic of conversation for quite a while now. Which, consequently, must mean he’s… you know… old. Well, at just 27 years of age, he’s not placeable in that category quite yet. One thing I don’t want to do is discount Vance McDonald and his ability to contribute, in a real-football-sense, to this ball club. He’s a terrific player in his own right and I genuinely think he’s a quality asset to any organization. Nonetheless, Eric Ebron walks into that locker room as the unquestioned TE1 with some pretty monster upside, especially in the touchdown department.
2019 was a banner year for rookie edge defenders. Several more break-out performances from players that fantasy gamers had left for dead combine with the rookies good depth to the EDGE position. The position mirrors the wide-receiver position in that there are more strong, steady options than ever and plenty of depth for those with the stomach to play match-ups.
In a dynasty story, I’ll look at a single player and how his value has fluctuated over time, starting from their college profile. I’ll factor in his NFL stats and generally discuss what he did in each of his NFL seasons. Then, I’ll look at their 2020 prospects before wrapping it up with a final recommendation and dynasty strategy.
Today, it’s time for a deep dive into Dede Westbrook. Let’s jump right in!
Stefon Diggs joined the Minnesota Vikings in 2015 as a 5th-round pick. Since then, he has produced four top-30 fantasy finishes in five seasons, including a WR10 finish in 2018.
The shovel is back! My favorite article series returns once again. If you don’t already know, I figuratively bury fantasy players and their redraft stock. You can find all my previous work in this series at the bottom of the page. Unfortunately, the grim reaper has come for Emmanuel Sanders. He’s had a great career, but his time is up. Also, to jump out in front of the potential backlash, I want to make sure you don’t hear what I’m not saying in this article. Sanders was an exceptional real-life and fantasy wide receiver for many years. He had a stellar NFL career and deserves nothing but praise for his perseverance.
Joey and Nick Bosa are both amazing talents with nearly identical profiles. Joey is a known commodity with a little extra size, and his production is proven. He knows he’ll be playing in Los Angeles through his prime and is a model IDP asset…
Potentially more than ever, Jarvis Landry finds his way into any and every conversation revolving around the notion of buying low in a dynasty setting. Just days after the Browns placed the WR on the active/PUP list, Old Tom has a feeling you’re going to find a few owners a little concerned. The good news, however, is that this was always part of the plan. As reported, the team has indicated there have been no setbacks and Jarvis should be ready in time for that week 1 showdown with the high-flying Ravens. With that cleared up, Old Tom has always had a sweet spot for Mr. Landry.
Lamar Jackson was selected with the last pick in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft. He was drafted after Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen at the quarterback position. Prior to being drafted in the first round, Lamar Jackson was a prolific quarterback for the Louisville Cardinals earning the Heisman Award in his true sophomore season. Jackson threw for over 9,000 yards to go with 69 TDs versus 27 interceptions. Jackson was truly electric rushing the ball, having two seasons with over 1,500 yards, finishing with over 4,000 yards and 50 TDs in his three collegiate seasons.
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! Now, I want to take a look at Jamison Crowder. My friend @DocFFN recently wrote a free dynasty profile on Crowder, but I wanted to look at Crowder’s redraft prospects. I also wanted to take more of a long-form approach, as the dynasty free profiles are quick-hitters. Anyway, Crowder might play for the hapless Jets, but I think he deserves some attention as a sleeper for 2020 PPR redraft leagues. Let’s get into why.
The moon has not completed a single orbit around the earth since the Washington Football Team scandal broke, as over a dozen female former employees had alleged ‘Football Team’ executives of sexual harassment. New Head Coach, Ron Rivera took the podium and announced his and the team’s displeasure in the findings, and lead the charge to right the ship. Twenty-two days later, on a day where the twitter community believed that the big news of the day was the distasteful comments by an analyst at a prominent company, we were shocked bythe reporting of Derrius Guice’s arrest of domestic violence, assault and battery, and destruction of property. Again, with Ron Rivera at the helm ‘Football Team’ made the swift decision to release the 23-year old running back.
Seasonal (redraft) ranks will appear in article form this year at Dynasty Football Factory. The IDP ranks in spreadsheet form are and will remain for a dynasty format. I’ll update these dynasty ranks year-round, thus making available a rare resource for IDP gamers. I, myself, was always on the hunt for current dynasty ranks for start-up and dispersal drafts for IDP leagues before I started writing.
You know, it never fails to leave Old Tom speechless every time I venture back to different draft classes and re-examine the selections. In 2017, for example, amongst WRs so many were so sure that the Titans, Chargers, and Bengals struck gold with their top-10 WR. Now, to each individual’s credit, while they may not have matched or exceeded expectations. But, they are still participating… and at relatively high levels from time to time. However, when you come off the board at 5, 7, & 9 respectively, the football community simply expects so much more. With that said, let’s talk about that #9 selection out of the University of Washington. Mr. John Ellis Ross III. You know, that 5’11 194lb burner that set the unofficial record with his 4.22-second forty-yard dash. Ya, that guy.
Brandin Cooks was drafted by the New Orleans Saints in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. Cooks was a part-time player as a rookie, but he really broke out in his sophomore season, going over 1,100 receiving yards and scoring nine TDs. That 2015 campaign was the beginning of a four-year stretch in which Cooks never finished worse than the WR15. He also topped 115 targets and 1,000 receiving yards in each of those seasons despite playing for three different teams. In 2019, Cooks’ streak of dominance came to an end. He appeared in 14 games for the Rams but finished with career-lows in receptions and TDs as he spent the majority of the season battling concussion issues.
This is a new buy/sell/hold series that I will be diving into for dynasty formats. In this piece I’ll be going through some screaming buys I’m seeing as I look through recent ADP.
I believe that now is the perfect time to strike and acquire shares of Samuel in your dynasty league. Once he returns to the lineup and demonstrates that he’s healthy, his price will rise. This Jones fracture is a short-term injury, and it shouldn’t dramatically decrease Samuel’s value. Even so, dynasty owners tend to overreact, and I’ve noticed a drop in Samuel’s trade value and his ADP. Buy on that dip, because this injury is a blip on the long-term radar. Samuel is only 24 years old and he has his whole career ahead of him. Most rookie wide receivers don’t show half of what Samuel showed in his rookie year, and this is a chance to get in on a stellar dynasty asset at his basement value.
No doubt, you probably had to double back to make sure this was a “buy-low” column. Don’t worry, Old Tom fully understands your confusion. I’ll say this, your potential shock factor is going to be off the charts when you get to number one. See, here’s something I always like to remember. The phrase “buying low” is of course a relative one. Given Old Tom’s self-proclaimed foundation of simplicity and subjectivity, I enjoy a good bit of relativism from time to time. With that said, Marquise Brown is an individual I feel is well worth his current price, as it will rise much higher in the coming months and consequently years.
Dynasty owners don’t want to invest in Kelce at his current cost of a third-round startup pick and the dynasty TE2. However, if you’re a contender, Kelce is worth far more to your team than what you could recoup for him in a trade. He’s tied to Mahomes for the foreseeable future, although his contract does expire after 2021. I expect the Chiefs to retain Kelce throughout his career, though, as he’s Mahomes’ favorite weapon. Tight ends can produce into their mid-to-late 30s, and I don’t see any reason why Kelce won’t be a part of that group. If you sold Tony Gonzalez in dynasty leagues before his age-31 season, you would have been very sorry, and I believe Kelce is the same type of transcendent player. Therefore, I wouldn’t seek to trade him off my roster unless I’m in a deep and long-term rebuild.