Dynasty Story: Dante Pettis

In a dynasty story, I’ll look at a single player and how his value has fluctuated over time, starting from their college profile. I’ll factor in his NFL stats and generally discuss what he did in each of his NFL seasons. Then, I’ll look at his 2020 prospects before wrapping it up with a final recommendation and dynasty strategy. 

Today, it’s time for a deep dive into Dante Pettis. Is there any hope for a revival in his value, or is Pettis done? Let’s jump right in!

College Production and NFL Draft Profile

Pettis played four years at Washington. From 2014-2016, he played a depth role behind various starters, including John Ross in 2016. However, Pettis scored an incredible 15 touchdowns on only 53 receptions in 2016. Finally, Pettis entirely broke out as a number one receiver in 2017, leading the team with 63 receptions for 761 yards and three touchdowns.

Even though Pettis didn’t have a perfect college profile, the 49ers traded up for and selected him with the 44th overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft. Dynasty owners were stunned at Pettis’ draft capital, as he wasn’t on the radar before the NFL Draft. He then settled in as a second-round rookie pick based on his draft capital. The 49ers had Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon locked in as their top two receivers, so there wasn’t that much hype surrounding Pettis.

NFL Stat Totals

Here are Pettis’ full NFL stats.

Dynasty Value History

Pettis’ value remained stable after the NFL Draft to the start of the 2018 NFL season. Pettis seemed to establish himself as the third receiver in the 49ers’ offense, but that role didn’t appeal to dynasty owners. However, in Week 1, Pettis received the opportunity to play significant snaps after an injury to Goodwin. He caught two of five targets for 61 yards and a touchdown, which put him on dynasty owners’ radars. Then, in Week 2, Pettis started the game in place of Goodwin, although he disappointed with only one catch for 35 yards.

After Week 2, Goodwin returned to the lineup, sending Pettis to the bench. Pettis recorded no offensive stats in Weeks 3 and 4 before suffering a knee injury on a punt return. Pettis missed Weeks 5-7, preventing his dynasty value from increasing. Even though Pettis returned in Week 8, he remained a bench option behind Goodwin, Kendrick Bourne, and Garcon for the following two games.

In Week 9, Garcon suffered a season-ending knee injury, opening a spot in the 49ers’ starting lineup. Pettis became a starter in Week 10 and took a full-time role in Week 12 forward. From Weeks 12-15, Pettis played at least 85% of the 49ers’ snaps. In those four games, he caught 17 of 26 targets for 338 yards and four touchdowns, emerging as the 49ers’ top wide receiver. He averaged 18.7 fantasy PPG over that stretch, eighth among wide receivers.

Unfortunately, Pettis suffered an MCL injury in the 49ers’ Week 16 contest that forced him to miss the remainder of the season. Overall, Pettis had a successful rookie year and displayed a WR1 upside. His performance was especially remarkable, considering that the 49ers went through three different quarterbacks in 2018: Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard, and Nick Mullens.

After 2018, the 49ers decided to move on from Garcon, leaving Pettis as their clear top receiver with Goodwin as the number two. While tight end George Kittle had emerged as the offense’s top overall target, dynasty owners had extreme optimism for Pettis heading into Year 2. Throughout the offseason, he found himself valued as a high-end WR3, although many felt he had the upside to rise into the upper echelon of dynasty assets.

While Pettis had played well as a rookie, warning signs began to appear. The 49ers drafted wide receiver Deebo Samuel in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft with the 36th overall pick. Samuel received similar draft capital to Pettis, although Pettis had already succeeded in the NFL. Even so, the 49ers thought they needed an additional wide receiver, which displayed a lack of confidence in Pettis. However, the Samuel pick didn’t seem to devalue Pettis at the time.

Once the 2019 season started, everything unraveled for Pettis. He only played 3% of the snaps in Week 1, and he received consistent criticism from head coach Kyle Shanahan. Pettis never established himself in the 49ers’ lineup, with Samuel settling in as the top receiver and trade acquisition Emmanuel Sanders as the WR2. Even Bourne played ahead of Pettis for most of 2019, and Bourne almost tripled Pettis’ production.

By the start of the 2020 offseason, Pettis had lost most of his dynasty value, as he didn’t seem to be in the 49ers’ plans. The 49ers moved on from Sanders and Goodwin, but they drafted Brandon Aiyuk in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. At that point, the 49ers’ top WR duo seemed to be locked in long-term, and Pettis became an afterthought.

2020 Outlook

Unfortunately, I don’t have that much hope for Pettis in 2020. Even though both Samuel and Aiyuk are struggling with injuries, Pettis still has to compete for a place on the depth chart. I expect Bourne to open the season as the 49ers’ top receiver if Samuel and Aiyuk can’t go, with Pettis as the number two. Unlike Pettis, Bourne has performed well in 49ers’ training camp and seems to have developed a rapport with Garoppolo.

Also, Kittle will dominate the 49ers’ targets, and the 49ers are a run-first team. I don’t currently rank Pettis in my redraft rankings, especially considering that I expect Samuel and Aiyuk to return sooner rather than later. Don’t expect anything from Pettis from a 2020 perspective.

Dynasty Recommendation

Although I’ve mostly written Pettis off for 2020, I can’t completely ignore his draft capital and successful rookie year. I would undoubtedly stash him on my bench just in case he flashes early on. However, if he gains any value, I’d capitalize and move him for whatever I could get in a trade. I don’t think Pettis will ever stabilize as a dynasty asset, so he’s just a short-term speculative play.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

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