The Dynasty Football Factory gathered once more to partake in a 12-team redraft league mock draft! But this time, we shook things up. We went with tight end premium scoring, as well as 0.25 points per carry. The tight end premium doesn’t raise the value of all tight ends, but it does create an even larger gap between the top and the rest. The point per carry adds a little bit more value to your bell-cow running backs. The biggest change? Third-Round Reversal.
What is the third-round reversal? I’ll get to that. But first, let me paint a picture of how my home league’s redraft draft order selection went.
I’m the commissioner of this hometown league and for the 11th year in a row, I find myself picking names out of a hat. It’s an oldie, but a goodie when it comes to picking the draft order. It’s more fun than just clicking the “randomize” button on an app at least! Anyways, I take names out one at a time starting with pick 10 and working down to the one spot, announcing the name in the group chat after each pull. I pull a name, pick 10, pull a name, pick 9, so on and so on. The only word I could use to describe most of the league’s mood as I said their names is “disappointed.”
It wasn’t until we got down to the four spot that I started seeing some happy faces. But, even then, they knew they were close but still so far from the biggest prize in all of fantasy land this year… Christian McCaffrey. The lucky winner this year? That would be me!
Why Third-Round Reversal
Each year there seems to be a clear tier that is ahead of the pack when it comes to the top picks. Meanwhile, the gap between the start of the second round and the beginning of the third doesn’t feel nearly as big. In most mock drafts this Summer, I have almost always loved the team picking in the one spot because they get CMC and the two top players at the next turn. This year in my home league, I decided it was too much of an advantage. I went searching and found a few options to change it up. Auction was the biggest equalizer, but my friends like the classic snake draft. Even if that means getting sniped or not having a chance at CMC. It’s what we’ve always done and we love it.
I then stumbled upon an excellent article written by the team over at footballguys.com all the way back in 2007, about third-round reversal. Third-round reversal (actually called third-round serpentine on their website, but due to popularity the fantasy community switched names) is when you have the typical snake draft in the first two rounds, but then instead of spot one picking at the top of the third round, it goes to spot ten (or twelve, fourteen, etc.).
My home league agreed that we should try this out in order to deal out a more even hand to everyone. Now at least there will be no excuses when I win this year because getting CMC means “I was supposed to win.” I’m excited for year 11 of the “My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy Football League,” even though the first time I won the lottery, I won’t be getting the full benefit. I urge those of you who still love the classic snake draft to try out third-round reversal. If you’re looking for a more in-depth analysis of why it’s the best way to do a linear draft, definitely take a look at the football guys article. It’s been 13 years and the article holds up more than ever!
My Team from the One Spot
I was excited to get a trial run in from the one spot with the crack redraft team at DFF. There’s no better practice than having 11 other committed analysts in a mock draft. So how did things end up for me? Let’s take a look! (You can find the full draft here.)
1.01: Christian McCaffrey – Duh. I love this pick. And, to be honest, anyone else here in a non-superflex league is most likely the wrong pick.
2.12: Todd Gurley – Running backs were flying off the board (15 of the first 23 picks) and I didn’t want to risk another run in the next 11 picks since I only got to pick one player at this turn. Gurley has the upside to be a top ten back this year if he can stay healthy. Having McCaffrey allows me a high enough floor to take a chance on Gurley here despite him being risky.
3.12: Kenny Golladay – The redraft guru himself, @DFF_Karp, found himself in a lovely position, being able to select Tyreek Hill at the start of the third round. 11th overall in fantasy points per game and a ceiling like no other, adding Hill to my team would have easily landed my team as the favorite. But, alas, I had to drop a tier to a player I like, but not as much as Hill obviously. Golladay has a great chance to break into the top tier this year if Stafford is healthy and he can become a little more consistent. All in all, still not that bad despite having to wait an extra 11 picks.
Let’s break from the analysis: My first three picks are above. @DFF_Karp started with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. What team do you like more? Now, what if we switched Golladay and Hill? CMC, Gurley, and Hill vs CEH, Kelce, and Golladay. Who do you like more there? Let me @DFF_JoeMem and @DFF_Karp know on twitter!
Now that we’re past the biggest shake-up, let’s get to the rest of the mock!
4.01: David Montgomery – Montgomery had 242 carries last year and he’ll most likely exceed that number this year. With 20 running backs off the board, Montgomery is a nice floor play to fill out my first flex spot.
5.12: Kyler Murray – I normally don’t take quarterbacks this early, but last time I checked, a scramble counted as a carry which bumps the value of rushing quarterbacks even higher. Murray was third in the league in rushing attempts last year, trailing only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Give me those extra points.
6.01: A.J. Green – The talent was never in question with Green. It’s always the injuries. Unfortunately, after this pick was made, news hit of another hamstring issue. He’s getting closer to my “Do Not Draft” list every day.
7.12: Tyler Higbee – I leave every mock draft with Tyler Higbee and I will probably leave every draft with him too. I’m on the side that believes his last five games of 2019 showed a weekly ceiling. To learn more about Higbee, check out this free article.
8.01: Marvin Jones Jr. – I now have both of the Lions receivers on my team. But, that’s okay because Marvin Jones Jr. is a great player. He’s over 30, so he’s not looked at as a “sexy” pick. But, trust me, his ADP has been steadily rising all offseason. He used to be picked in the double-digit rounds, but people are catching on to the guy who finished 19th in points per game last season.
9.12: Adrian Peterson – This is a classic example of what not to do at your draft. We all make mistakes, us analysts included. AP is just not an exciting pick. He’s not a league-winning pick either. He’s a low floor, low ceiling pick and that’s what will cost you. Take someone like Bryce Love later on that has a chance to be something more and if he doesn’t, it’s okay to drop him quickly.
10.01: Darius Slayton – This is the exact opposite of the AP pick! Slayton has a great chance to be a top 30 wide receiver this year if he can earn some consistent targets from Daniel Jones. Check out this free article on Slayton to learn more!
11.12: Duke Johnson – Another pick that’s way better than the AP pick! Johnson has a ton of upside as a change-of-pace back in Houston. And with David Johnson’s injury history, there’s a chance his role could grow any week.
12.01: Henry Ruggs – Normally I’m not a fan of drafting rookie wide receivers in redraft leagues, but he’s a first-rounder who should see the field immediately. We’ll see right away if he’s worth a spot on the roster.
13.12: Steven Sims Jr. – Someone has to be the number two receiver behind McLaurin in Washington and my money is on Sims Jr. He started heating up at the end of last year and all reports in camp have been good. He’s one of my favorite dart throws in drafts.
14.01: Laviska Shenault Jr. – Another rookie wide receiver when I said I don’t normally do this. Well, Jacksonville should be playing from behind a lot this year and Shenault should immediately slot into the number two role behind DJ Chark. There should be a ton of volume and Shenault was one of my favorite receivers pre-draft.
15.12: DeeJay Dallas – Rookie-palooza to end this draft. Chris Carson is banged up, Rashaad Penny is on the PUP list, and the Seahawks love to run the ball. Oh, and they give it to the best player regardless of draft capital. Dallas was a top ten rookie RB pre-draft and reports out of Seattle have been great. He has a chance to see the field on passing downs sooner than they thought he would. He may not have a full role, but he’s someone that will be worth monitoring throughout the season given all the injury histories in that backfield.
That wraps up this mock! Hope you enjoyed my breakdown. Hit me up @DFF_JoeMem on twitter and let me know what you think about my team and the third-round reversal format! Be sure to sign up for the DFF monthly subscription so you can have access to my Dynasty Rankings and always be one step ahead of the competition!
