With the 2020 NCAA season looking to be canceled, or at the very least severely affected, and many dynasty owners looking for a bright spot with no preseason, some owners are looking at their 2021 draft picks.
One of the biggest questions as owners look to sure up a roster for a 2020 run or to begin the productive struggle through to 2021 and beyond is how to evaluate those 2021 assets moving forward.
It might be time to look at the 2021 draft in a different light and look deeper than the simplistic “a late first-round pick is automatically worth a percentage more than an early 2nd round pick”. If that early 2nd round pick also has an early 3rd or 4th to offer, it may become worth it. In 2020 it will be more guesswork, and the more chances you have to get it right benefits your team.
There are however several ways to approach this 2021 draft.
Option 1: Studs
Find those teams that have continually struggled over the last couple of years and make moves. Read the rules your commissioner should have put out by now for how the draft picks will be allocated in 2021if the season is altered, and go after those studs.
Package up the assets you have to give yourself the best chance at getting into the top 8 picks. When evaluating the 2021 draft class, some clear standouts that would have been 1st round picks in any of the recent rookie drafts are guys like Trevor Lawrence, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Rashod Bateman, Rondale Moore, Travis Etienne, Chuba Hubbard. All of these players will be available this season, either because they have used all their eligibility or they will declare early.
Don’t overthink this. If they would have been a top 8-10 pick in the 2020 draft, does the fact that you didn’t see them play in 2020 change anything? You’re going to get a player that has spent a year getting ready for the pros, learning schemes, and studying film. These guys were good already, but now they have a better chance to be fitter, smarter, and healthier. Trade up into the top 6-8 picks and get multiples from those owners that are scared off.
Option 2: Pot Luck
This option is fun and is my preferred option on a long term rebuild. Get yourself as many 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks as you can. This year those rounds will be messy, owners will be unsure of who to take. Players that were due to break out this year won’t have the opportunity to do so, and this year it will be a “get your guy” strategy.
Player evaluation this year will be messy. You will hear analysts banging the table for their guy, who hits their metric, but the test will be who to listen to. Do you listen to the film guy who tells you that Devonta Smith gains separation with ease or the analytics guys saying that Sage Surratt, with a breakout age of 21 and BMI of 27.2, will be the day 2 steal of the draft? Why not have both.
Many players will not have a breakout age or will not appear on their college team’s all-time leaders list. As much as we as dynasty owners like to think we have the Midas touch, teams pay millions to evaluate talent and rely on film, stats, references, medicals, and much more. Most of which we don’t have. Deciding between two players like Sage Surratt and Amon-Ra St. Brown this year will be harder. Don’t decide, go get both.
Option 3: Punt the Year (not recommended)
Everyone remembers the 2019 draft, yes? The one that had “no depth” and “no studs”. The one that made us wonder if we should all trade for the 2020 draft picks. The hype got to the point where a 2019 1st was worth a 2020 2nd. Don’t repeat this mistake.
Every single year college football churns out talent. While it may not be the 2014 wide receiver class, there will be players in that 2021 class that will move into the top rounds of 2021 and 2022 startup drafts.
It isn’t smart to give a year away, even if your roster is loaded. There are always cuttable players on your roster. That Larry Fitzgerald you have at the back of your roster for “depth”? This is the time to go sell him for some late 4th round dart throws and hope you get lucky that a player was missed in the evaluating process.
Conclusion
The 2021 NFL Draft and the 2021 dynasty rookie drafts will be unlike any other. If NFL teams are willing to accept that players like Lawrence and Fields do not need to risk their bodies for an extra 13 games to be successful in the NFL, it has the potential to change the landscape of college football. Stats will be skewed, seasons will be missed, and tape will be reduced.
As much as we as dynasty owners like to think we know everything, teams pay millions to evaluate talent. Give yourself the best shot of success by having as many bites at the cherry as possible. Be those multiple early firsts or plenty of late-round dart throws. No matter what, do not give up on the 2021 class just because you didn’t watch their final season.
Thanks for reading! Reach out to me on Twitter @markbullishere with any fantasy questions.
