Sleeper Series: Chris Herndon

Methodology and Intro

After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet!

Now, I want to get into a potential late-round tight end breakout. Chris Herndon provides insane upside in 2020, and he’s going relatively unnoticed in drafts. Let me tell you why he might be worth selecting in 2020.

Past Production

Here are Herndon’s full NFL stats.

The Jets drafted Herndon with the 107th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. At the time, they didn’t have a notable tight end on the roster. Even so, Herndon received little attention, and he wasn’t really on the fantasy radar. Rookie tight ends typically don’t produce in fantasy football and rarely get on the field, especially when they’re not a first-round pick.

However, Herndon played a majority of the Jets’ snaps in each of the first five games. He only totaled five receptions for 47 yards, but it was nice to see him get some opportunities to play. Herndon continued to fight for playing time in the next three games, but he didn’t see a full starting role until Week 9.

From Week 9 forward, Herndon played at least 64% of the Jets’ snaps in each game. During that period, he totaled 27 receptions on 38 targets for 341 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 8.4 fantasy PPG, and he planted himself in the streaming conversation at tight end. 

While his average PPG was only 14th among tight ends, he had his best performance during championship week. Herndon caught six of seven targets for 82 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the TE3 that week. Considering Herndon’s bright rookie year, fantasy owners expected to draft him as a low-end TE1 going into 2019.

Unfortunately, everything went wrong for Herndon in 2019. First, he received a four-game suspension from the NFL for DUI charges, taking him off most redraft boards. Herndon then struggled with hamstring and ribs injuries throughout 2019, and he only managed to play in one game. In my 2019 streamers review, I noted that I recommended Herndon three times as a streamer, only for him to burn me by not even playing. Herndon wasted all of our time in 2019.

The Prevailing Narrative

Going into 2020, most casual fantasy players have forgotten about Herndon. He did nothing in 2019, so he’s out of sight and out of mind for many people. Even worse, he took up a roster spot for some other owners in 2019, despite never managing to get on the field.

Also, the Jets have terrible head coach Adam Gase, who is often a death knell for fantasy assets. He seems to decide to rotate his players on a whim and banish certain players to the doghouse for minimal reasons. Even in my Jets’ redraft preview in May, I didn’t expect much from Herndon, partially due to Gase’s influence. He came in as my TE23 at that point, and I felt that most fantasy players felt similarly.

2020 Outlook

However, recently Herndon’s situation seems to have changed. He has fully participated in Jets’ training camp, and he has stood out during drills. Jets’ wide receivers Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman have struggled with injuries, with Mims missing most of camp so far. Therefore, Herndon only has Jamison Crowder as real competition for targets, leaving a massive void for Herndon to succeed.

For those reasons, I’ve decided to move Herndon up to my TE18. He’s still a streamer, but I think that Herndon presents upside. If he continues to succeed and Mims and Perriman continue to miss time, I could easily move Herndon to around TE14. Herndon offers more upside than Jared Cook, Dallas Goedert, and Blake Jarwin, all of whom I currently rank ahead of him. 

If I don’t get one of the top tight ends, I’m perfectly comfortable grabbing Herndon as a second tight end behind my first option. After TE9, I know that I’m just drafting a streamer. And taking two shots at the position gives me a better chance at finding a long-term option. In Week 1, we’ll know Herndon’s role, and then I can make an easy roster decision on him

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

Previous Articles: Intro + Hayden Hurst, Sony Michel, Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, Allen Lazard, Brandon Aiyuk, Jerick McKinnon, Jalen Reagor