Dynasty Story: Mike Evans

In a dynasty story, I’ll look at a single player and how his value has fluctuated over time, starting from their college profile. I’ll factor in his NFL stats and generally discuss what he did in each of his NFL seasons. Then, I’ll look at their 2020 prospects before wrapping it up with a final recommendation and dynasty strategy. 

Today, it’s time for a deep dive into Mike Evans. Let’s jump right in!

College Production and NFL Draft Profile

Evans played two seasons at Texas A&M. He redshirted his freshman year in 2011, but he then jumped into the starting lineup in 2012. Evans led the team in receiving in both of his college seasons, forming a formidable duo with star quarterback Johnny Manziel. Evans totaled 151 receptions, 2,499 yards, and 17 touchdowns, leading him to declare for the 2014 NFL Draft.

As we know now, that class was a loaded wide receiver group, both as prospects and as NFL producers. Evans competed with Sammy Watkins and Odell Beckham Jr. to be the first receiver selected. While Watkins went fourth overall to the Bills, Evans was not far behind. The Buccaneers selected Evans with the seventh pick, five spots ahead of Beckham Jr. Given Evans’ premium draft capital, the Buccaneers saw him as their long-term alpha receiver.

NFL Stat Totals

Here are Evans’ full NFL stats.

Dynasty Value History

Evans almost immediately carried high value in dynasty leagues. While most felt that Watkins was the clear 1.01 in rookie drafts, Evans was the consensus 1.02 selection. That rookie draft capital made him a third-round startup pick, even before he played an NFL game. 

However, Evans immediately blew the door off his initial value. The Buccaneers already had star wide receiver Vincent Jackson on the team, who had been a dominant receiver for many years. Jackson still led the team in targets and receptions, putting up 70 receptions on 142 targets for 1,002 yards and two touchdowns. Despite Jackson’s presence, Evans still dominated as a rookie, outpacing Jackson in both yards and touchdowns.

Evans almost broke into the WR1 range as a rookie, and after his impressive rookie year, he managed to remain a first-round dynasty startup pick for nearly four years. Even though Evans’ value stayed relatively flat for so long, his story isn’t so simple. After 2014, Evans had become the absolute, unquestioned top receiver on the Buccaneers over Jackson. 

In 2015, Evans had to undergo a quarterback change from the committee of Josh McCown and Mike Glennon to top overall pick Jameis Winston. With Winston, Evans had some growing pains in 2015. He improved in targets, receptions, and yards, but he declined to only three touchdowns. Evans’ efficiency metrics also fell, as he caught 5.5% fewer of his passes and averaged 0.5 fewer yards/target compared to 2014. 

Despite these minor hiccups, Evans only turned 23 years old entering the 2016 season, so his value remained stable. Most expected Winston to take a step forward in his second year, especially considering that he threw for over 4,000 yards as a rookie. The Buccaneers also had no serious competition for Evans in the receiving game, so he had a similar opportunity in 2016 to what he had in 2015.

In 2016, Winston slightly improved as a passer, although he continued to make far too many mistakes. Even though his mistakes hurt the Buccaneers on the field, Winston managed to turn Evans into a bona fide fantasy stud. Evans garnered 30.2% of the Buccaneers’ targets, a ridiculously large share, and he finished as the WR3. 

Evans’ strong performance vaulted him into a new tier after 2016. As he wouldn’t turn 24 years old until August 2017, Evans was the consensus second overall player in dynasty startups, behind only Beckham Jr. I completely agree with that valuation, given the context at that time. Evans had mostly improved in each of his three seasons, and he had a great relationship with his young, franchise quarterback in Winston.

Unfortunately, Evans regressed in 2017. Secondary options Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate retained their shares from 2016, but DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard, and Chris Godwin entered the offense. Evans led the team with 136 targets, but he only had a 22.8% target share. He also regressed in yards/target and catch rate, and he, therefore, wasn’t the same fantasy force he was in 2016.

Even in Evans’ down year, he finished as the WR17 and was still a great fantasy wide receiver. Therefore, dynasty owners didn’t significantly drop Evans’ value after 2017. He remained a first-round startup pick, as he was a young, durable player who had begun his career with four straight 1,000 yard seasons.

Evans’ situation then changed in 2018. Winston received a three-game suspension from the NFL, which allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to temporarily become the Buccaneers’ starter. Both Winston and Fitzpatrick aired the ball out, with the team’s quarterbacks combining for 5,358 passing yards and 36 touchdowns.

Suddenly, Evans became an efficient player. He maintained his target share from 2017, but he posted metrics he’d never posted before. He caught 62.3% of his targets, and he averaged 11.0 yards/targets, both by far the highest marks in his career. Evans also managed a career-high in receiving yards, although he only caught eight touchdowns. 

Because of Evans’ 2018 success, he retained his first-round startup value for yet another season. While Godwin began to emerge in 2018 as a fantasy option, he had not started to challenge Evans’ role as the alpha wide receiver. Before 2019, most dynasty owners thought that Evans would remain the definite WR1 on the Buccaneers as long as he wanted, with Godwin playing a secondary role.

As we know now, those people were wrong. Under new head coach Bruce Arians, the Buccaneers continued to run a pass-happy offense in 2019. Both Godwin and Evans dominated, both finishing in the top-five among wide receivers in fantasy PPG. However, Godwin led Evans in all receiving categories and proved far more efficient in the Buccaneers’ passing game.

Even though Godwin outplayed Evans in 2019, Evans continued to hover around the first round turn in dynasty startups at the start of the 2020 offseason. During free agency, the Buccaneers decided to make a significant change at quarterback, going from Winston to future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Whether based on narrative or fact, Brady’s signing has caused a massive decline in Evans’ value. Evans has fallen well outside the first round, and he often falls to the third round of current startups. I’m not exactly sure how a change from the erratic Winston to the solid Brady hurts Evans that much, but that’s what’s happened in the dynasty market.

2020 Outlook

In June, I broke down the Buccaneers’ redraft assets. Evans remains a solid WR1 going into 2020, even with Brady replacing Winston at quarterback. I do prefer Godwin over Evans, but Evans is my WR9 and 25th overall player for 2020. I find Evans undervalued going into this season, especially considering his pristine history of fantasy production. Therefore, I expect to have some shares of Evans on my 2020 teams, and I’m happy to rely on him in dynasty leagues.

Dynasty Recommendation

In dynasty leagues, Evans represents the most apparent high-priced buy or hold. Evans turns only 27 years old in August, so he’s still a young player with multiple prime seasons ahead of him. He has taken a massive drop in value with both the quarterback change and Godwin’s emergence.

Evans has always produced when on the field, and he’s only missed six games in his six-year career. There is no reason to sell Evans, and he represents a great buying opportunity if his owner has concerns. I remain willing to pay two first-round picks to acquire Evans because finding 27-year old wide receivers with proven production is hard. I think you might even be able to buy Evans for a lower price, which would be a shrewd move. Take this opportunity to pounce before Evans puts up fantasy points in-season.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

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