Recently, I wrote a quick, free dynasty profile on Derrius Guice. In that article, I covered Guice’s dynasty value after his recent release and how to handle Guice moving forward. Honestly, I’m tired of talking about Guice, since there’s a good chance he never plays another NFL down. However, Guice leaves behind a massive hole in the Washington backfield, which somebody will fill. Let’s go through their depth chart, player-by-player, and discuss each option in dynasty terms.
Antonio Gibson
Gibson is an entirely unproven player, even for a rookie. He started his college career at community college, but then he attended Memphis for his final two college seasons. At Memphis, Gibson barely played in 2018, before breaking into the lineup in 2019.
Gibson still wasn’t heavily used in 2019, but he flashed extreme potential on his limited touches. He caught 38 passes for 735 yards and eight touchdowns and rushed 33 times for 369 yards and four touchdowns. Gibson averaged a fantastic 11.2 YPC and scored a ridiculous 12 touchdowns on 71 touches.
Based on Gibson’s upside, Washington selected him with the 66th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. At the time, they saw him as a change-of-pace back behind Guice and Adrian Peterson, although they made it clear that Gibson was part of their running back room, not the wide receiver group. However, with Guice out of town, Gibson now has a chance to challenge for more work right from the jump.
Gibson is currently my RB37 in redraft rankings, up from about RB50 before the Guice news. In dynasty leagues, I have Gibson as my RB30 and 88th overall player. In terms of rookies, Gibson comes in as my 15th overall rookie, behind Laviska Shenault and ahead of Denzel Mims. I’ve probably moved Gibson up around 25 spots in my overall dynasty rankings, a significant boost.
Even though I like Gibson’s upside and his potential, I think he’s going to become overvalued based on the hype. Gibson is a complete mystery, and there’s no guarantee he can ever become an actual NFL running back, let alone a workhorse. He will contribute in the passing game, especially with Washington’s lack of receiving options behind Terry McLaurin. Overall, though, I recommend floating Gibson on the trade block if you currently own him, as I think there’s an owner in every league that sees Gibson as a future star. Right now could represent his peak value, and it might be an excellent time to capitalize on that peak to acquire a more proven option.
Adrian Peterson
Peterson will be Washington’s early-down back to begin the 2020 season. I don’t expect them to sign another running back, so I don’t see any particular competition for Peterson in that role. However, Peterson is 35 years old, and he carries little to no dynasty value. He comes in around 200th in my 1QB dynasty rankings, and he’s now my RB51 in 2020 rankings.
Although Peterson should start some games in 2020, I would look elsewhere for a cheap running back buy for contenders. Peterson won’t be involved in the passing game for Washington, so he lacks the PPR upside of other potential running back fliers. However, if you already have Peterson on your team, hold onto him. He will make a decent matchup play in favorable game scripts, and that value will be more than you’ll get in a trade.
Bryce Love
Love is the complete wildcard in Washington’s backfield. Washington drafted Love with the 112th overall pick in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft after Love played four years at Stanford. In his first two seasons, he played a depth role behind Christian McCaffrey, although Love managed to average 7.8 and 7.1 YPC in those two years.
However, in 2017, Love had a massive breakout with McCaffrey heading to the NFL. Love had 263 carries for 2,118 yards and 19 touchdowns. Love was a candidate for the Heisman Trophy, and he was a consensus All-America selection at running back. He also won the Doak Walker Award for best collegiate running back and the Pac-12 offensive player of the year. If Love had declared for the NFL Draft after 2017, he might have been a first or second-round pick.
Love decided to return to Stanford for his senior season and wasn’t nearly the same player. He only had 739 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Also, Love’s YPC fell to a measly 4.5, an incredibly weak mark for a top collegiate prospect. Love’s draft stock tumbled throughout his senior year, although he still might have been a Day 2 pick.
Unfortunately, Love had an ACL injury in his final college game, and Washington knew that Love would likely miss the entire 2019 season when they selected him. As expected, Love went on injured reserve before the season and didn’t play as a rookie. Therefore, unlike Gibson and Peterson, Love has no guaranteed role in 2020.
Even without a guaranteed path to touches, Love is currently healthy and competing for chances in Washington’s backfield. Recently, Love has been turning heads at Washington’s camp, and I believe he does have an opportunity to see some touches in 2020. Love is an intriguing dynasty stash, even though he hasn’t displayed anything significant since 2017.
Before the Guice arrest, I was on the verge of recommending Love as a dynasty cut, since he had no hope to emerge. Now, Love comes in as my 209th overall player in 1QB dynasty leagues, which means he should be on a roster in all but the shallowest dynasty leagues. I think we’ll know in Week 1 whether Love has a role or not, so he has incredible value upside. With that said, people seem to value Love as if he’s already won touches, so it’s likely too late to buy-in. If you can acquire a 2021 third-round rookie pick for Love, I’d probably do that and just move on.
Peyton Barber
At this point, I expect Washington to keep all five of their running backs on their final roster, meaning that Barber likely makes the team. While Barber had some usable moments in 2017-2019 on the Buccaneers, he never did anything special. I believe that Barber is Peterson’s early down-backup to open 2020, but he has no long-term dynasty value. I’d look elsewhere for a deep dynasty stash.
J.D. McKissic
Like Barber, McKissic has zero dynasty value. Washington signed McKissic to compete in the passing game and be their third-down back, but that happened before they drafted Gibson. McKissic saw some work in 2017 and 2019 as a third-down back in Seattle and Detroit, but he did nothing in 2016 and 2018. As McKissic turns 27 years old in August, I’m not interested in wasting my time on McKissic in dynasty leagues. Take a better flier on someone else on a different offense.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
