Introduction
I started playing fantasy football in 2006. That was the year LaDainian Tomlinson set the fantasy (and NFL) world on fire. He rushed for over 1,800 yards, caught 56 passes for over 500 yards, and scored 31 total touchdowns. Tomlinson scored a whopping 453 half-PPR points that season. He was the RB1 by a margin of 82 points. That fact is even more incredible when you realize that only eight running backs have topped 350 half-PPR points in the last 14 years, and two of those guys did it the same season as Tomlinson. That’s right, three of the top eight running back seasons of my entire fantasy football life came in that 2006 season. Of course, the league was different back then. Derrick Henry led all running backs in carries last year with 303. That would have tied for tenth in 2006. Tenth!
Let’s get back to Tomlinson. As a young fantasy football player, I assumed we’d see crazy seasons like LT’s 2006 every few years. But it wasn’t until Chris Johnson’s famous 2,000-yard season in 2009 that we saw another running back top the 350 point mark. I also expected to see guys repeat as RB1 after Tomlinson led all running backs in 2007. That’s only happened once more when Todd Gurley finished as RB1 in both 2017 and 2018. As the years wore on, I started losing hope of seeing a running back season that would approach that legendary year from LT. David Johnson’s 367-point 2016 was plenty of fun, but no running back had topped 400 points since Tomlinson. That is… until Christian McCaffrey in 2019.
Setting the Bar High
McCaffrey’s 413 half-PPR points last year is the highest total of the last 13 seasons. He scored almost 50 more points than the next two guys on the list, David Johnson in 2016 and Chris Johnson in 2009. Take a minute to let that sink in. Good? Ok, so what does this mean for CMC in 2020? Is he the only guy to eclipse the 400-point mark since LT, bound to follow in Tomlinson’s footprints by repeating as the RB1? We don’t get points for last year, so let’s take a look at how every running back who finished as the top overall runner fared in his follow-up season.
As stated previously, 13 RBs have finished as the RB1 between 2006 and 2018, but only two have repeated the next season (LT in ‘07 and Gurley in ‘18). Three others have finished in the top five the following year, two were RB6 and one was RB7. Nine of the 13 finished in the top ten. David Johnson followed up his RB1 season by breaking his wrist in the first game of 2017, so let’s throw that out.
Le’Veon Bell’s follow-up season started with a two-game suspension and only lasted six games before an MCL injury. In those six games, he was RB3 on a per-game basis. DeAngelo Williams was RB14 in only 13 games after finishing as the RB1 in 2008. He was RB10 in per-game scoring in 2009. Todd Gurley finished as RB14 last year, but no one expected him to finish as the RB1 again due to his knee issues.
Just to recap, that’s two of 12 (16.7%) who repeated. Five of 12 (41.7%) finished as a top-five RB. That number rises to six (50%) if you include Bell’s injury and suspension-shortened 2015. Eight of the 12 (66.7%) finished as RB7 or better, and 11 of 12 (91.7%) finished as a top-ten RB on a points-per-game basis. Now, anyone who plays fantasy will tell you that a guy who is expected to be the RB1 is a disappointment if he finishes as RB6 or worse. If you want to look at these numbers and be discouraged, you are free to do so. But getting those odds on a top-ten RB is a good bet. It may not win you a title, but it sure won’t lose you the league.
Regression
What is a bit troubling in the data, is the standard regression that (almost) every running back saw in their following seasons. Every player who finished as the RB1 since 2006, with the lone exception of Todd Gurley’s repeat RB1 season in 2018, scored fewer points per game the following year. Even if you include that Gurley season and remove the one-game David Johnson season, the group averaged 22% fewer points-per-game. Regression is logical for running backs who (for the most part) have the greatest season of their careers. But it can’t be ignored when looking forward.
DeAngelo Williams, who took the title of RB1 without even breaking 300 half-PPR points, regressed an almost perfectly average 21% in points-per-game. He went from the MVP to a low-end RB1. Devonta Freeman, the lowest-scoring RB1 in our data with 280 half-PPR points, only regressed 14%. He still finished as RB6 on the season. What about guys on the higher end of the scoring spectrum? 2,000-yard rusher Chris Johnson regressed by 32% and finished as RB6. LaDainian Tomlinson, our reigning running back king, regressed by 25% and still held on to his crown. That’s what happens when you break 400 points in a season. In case you forgot, that’s also what McCaffrey did last year.
Conclusion
Let’s say CMC regresses the average 22%. That would put him at 322 half-PPR points on the season, with an average of just over 20 points per game. Both of those numbers would have led all running backs in 2019. Even if you bump his regression up to LT’s 25% number, CMC is still your RB1 on the season. This doesn’t mean that McCaffrey is a sure thing to repeat as the top running back in 2020. There is the possibility that the new coaching staff will look to keep him safe and fresh by limiting his workload.
Any smart coach will realize that CMC needs to be the focal point of the offense, but last year he was the offense. If CMC sees regression to the Chris Johnson level, he may finish more in the RB5 range. Despite that, no other running back offers the floor that CMC has. The hangover might be coming for McCaffrey, but he should still be the 1.01 pick in every draft this season.
Think CMC has more in common with CJ2K than he does with LT? Hit me up on Twitter @DynastyWalrus to discuss.
