Author name: Tyler Justin Karp

Columbia SPS Sports Management graduate.

Sleeper Series Jamison Crowder

Sleeper Series: Jamison Crowder

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After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! Now, I want to take a look at Jamison Crowder. My friend @DocFFN recently wrote a free dynasty profile on Crowder, but I wanted to look at Crowder’s redraft prospects. I also wanted to take more of a long-form approach, as the dynasty free profiles are quick-hitters. Anyway, Crowder might play for the hapless Jets, but I think he deserves some attention as a sleeper for 2020 PPR redraft leagues. Let’s get into why.

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Deebo Samuel: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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I believe that now is the perfect time to strike and acquire shares of Samuel in your dynasty league. Once he returns to the lineup and demonstrates that he’s healthy, his price will rise. This Jones fracture is a short-term injury, and it shouldn’t dramatically decrease Samuel’s value. Even so, dynasty owners tend to overreact, and I’ve noticed a drop in Samuel’s trade value and his ADP.  Buy on that dip, because this injury is a blip on the long-term radar. Samuel is only 24 years old and he has his whole career ahead of him. Most rookie wide receivers don’t show half of what Samuel showed in his rookie year, and this is a chance to get in on a stellar dynasty asset at his basement value.

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Travis Kelce: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Dynasty owners don’t want to invest in Kelce at his current cost of a third-round startup pick and the dynasty TE2. However, if you’re a contender, Kelce is worth far more to your team than what you could recoup for him in a trade. He’s tied to Mahomes for the foreseeable future, although his contract does expire after 2021.  I expect the Chiefs to retain Kelce throughout his career, though, as he’s Mahomes’ favorite weapon. Tight ends can produce into their mid-to-late 30s, and I don’t see any reason why Kelce won’t be a part of that group. If you sold Tony Gonzalez in dynasty leagues before his age-31 season, you would have been very sorry, and I believe Kelce is the same type of transcendent player. Therefore, I wouldn’t seek to trade him off my roster unless I’m in a deep and long-term rebuild.

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Tony Pollard: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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The Cowboys selected Pollard in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft out of Memphis. Coming into the NFL, most analysts saw Pollard as a dynamic receiving threat, and as a passing-down complement to starter Ezekiel Elliott. However, during Elliott’s contract holdout before the 2019 season, the Cowboys made it clear that Pollard was Elliott’s direct backup. Pollard’s redraft and dynasty value soared as Elliott was in danger of missing games due to his contract situation.

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Sam Darnold: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Darnold hasn’t been a usable fantasy quarterback in his first two NFL seasons. The Jets picked Darnold with the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, and he immediately won the Week 1 starting job. However, the 2018 Jets lacked receiving weapons, and Darnold couldn’t overcome that obstacle as a rookie. There were a couple of bright spots in Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and rookie tight end Chris Herndon, but none of them were star players. The team fired head coach Todd Bowles after a 4-12 season.

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Patrick Mahomes Dynasty Profile

Patrick Mahomes: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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The Chiefs selected Mahomes with the 10th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft as the long-term successor to incumbent starter Alex Smith. In 2017, Mahomes sat on the bench for almost the entire season, only playing Week 17 while Smith rested for the playoffs. After the 2017 season, the Chiefs decided to trade Smith to the Redskins, opening the door for Mahomes as the definite 2018 starting quarterback.

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Why Veterans Key Champs

Why Veterans Are the Key to Fantasy Championships: A 2020 Edition

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In dynasty leagues, there’s always a delicate balance that owners must forge between dynasty value and winning championships. In the end, the goal is to win the most championships possible, as quickly as possible. However, sometimes, dynasty owners need to rebuild and trade away their veterans to return to contending status.

There’s nothing wrong with that approach, as I detailed in an article guiding dynasty owners in determining whether they’re contenders or not. Taking a mild step backward to take a big step forward is a healthy decision and often tough to make. With that said, I want to move away from individual dynasty teams and look more closely at how two specific groups of players have performed over time. It’s time for an in-depth breakdown of what rookies and older veterans do for your roster.

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Sleeper Series: Sterling Shepard

Sleeper Series: Sterling Shepard

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Now, I want to jump into Sterling Shepard. I wrote a redraft breakdown about Shepard and the rest of the Giants in May as my first piece in that 32-part series. Outside of star running back Saquon Barkley, the Giants have four secondary offensive options in Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, and Shepard. Back then, I recommended fading Shepard and saw Golden Tate as the best sleeper in the Giants offense. However, at this point, I’ve come around to Shepard as the best overall option at cost. Let’s get into why.

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2020 rookie busts part two

2020 Rookie Busts Part Two

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The 2020 rookie class was a loaded group that had dynasty owners’ attention for years. I’ve written about the class three separate times: before the NFL Draft, live during the NFL Draft, and about a month ago. I’ve included all the links to those previous series at the bottom of the page. However, in those articles, I focused on the rookies from a redraft perspective and how they will impact redraft rosters in 2020.

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Karp's redraft mock

Karp’s DFF Redraft Mock

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Recently, the @DFF_Redraft crew joined up for a redraft mock draft. The format was: start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 6 bench spots, and PPR scoring. It was the first time this offseason that we did a mock with three starting wide receivers, so I was curious to see how that small change affected my strategy and the other drafters’ strategy.

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Rashaad Penny: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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I wrote about Penny back in February, but a lot has changed since then. The Seahawks selected Penny out of San Diego State with the 27th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Coming into the NFL, Seattle expected Penny to fill their starting running back position. Dynasty drafters flocked to Penny, and some spent the 1.02 rookie pick on Penny, behind Saquon Barkley at the 1.01.

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Redraft Best Ball Primer

DFF Dynasty Daredevil

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In this article, it’s time to look at the dynasty dynamite canisters. These are the guys that can explode in value or blow up and become nothing. I expect each of these players to do exactly that by the end of 2020. There’s no in-between, as I don’t foresee a mediocre outcome. Most of these players are on their “last chance” for dynasty owners. But, each has the upside to be a top asset.

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2020 rookie busts

2020 Rookie Busts Part One

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Now, it’s time to take a different slant on the 2020 rookie class. I want to look at the class from a dynasty perspective, specifically looking at the busts. When we look back in a few years, what players will we regret having selected in our rookie drafts? It’s not too late to move away from these players, so perhaps you might want to consider selling them before their value drops. I’m not necessarily saying that any of these players will completely bust, but I am saying that they won’t live up to their draft cost.

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Sleeper Series: Sony Michel

Sleeper Series: Sony Michel

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After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. In my first article, I wrote about Hayden Hurst and how he represents a value. Additionally, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! Let’s jump into my second player, Sony Michel. I’ve come a long way on Michel since I buried him in my “Dead to Me” series. Well, that isn’t entirely true, but let’s get into exactly how I feel about Michel since it’s a complicated story.

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Vegas Receivers Smart Bet

Vegas Receivers: Where’s the Smart Bet?

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The Raiders have one of the muddiest receiving groups in the NFL, with a quagmire of options. Based on their dynasty values, I’ll take a look at all the receiving options and give you the smart bet for 2020 and beyond. I already broke down the entire Raiders’ offense for redraft purposes, but I want to take more of a dynasty slant, focusing on the receiving group.

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Carson Wentz: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Carson Wentz has been an excellent real-life quarterback after his rookie year, throwing at least three times as many touchdowns as interceptions each season. In 2017, Wentz had an MVP-type season for the 13 games he played, dominating the NFL and leading the Eagles to an 11-2 record in his starts. Unfortunately, Wentz tore his ACL near the end of 2017, causing him to miss the Eagles’ Super Bowl run.

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Dynasty Story: Kenyan Drake

Dynasty Story: Kenyan Drake

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In a dynasty story, I’ll look at dynasty value and how a player has fluctuated over time, primarily based on news or events. Then, I’ll give a dynasty take on their future value and whether dynasty owners should buy or sell the player going forward. In my first dynasty story, I covered Mike Williams. While Williams has had somewhat of a roller coaster first three NFL seasons, it’s nothing compared to the next player’s journey. It’s time for a deep dive into Kenyan Drake.

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Sleeper of the Week

Sleeper of the Week: New Series

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typical fantasy owner is often wary of players that they haven’t seen produce in the NFL or those that don’t have “name value.” Rookies are often under drafted in most redraft leagues since they don’t have prior NFL stats. Also, players that put up decent stats but stayed off the fantasy radar can represent good sleepers. In this case, the goal is to exploit an information gap between informed and casual fantasy owners.

To keep things consistent, I will follow a particular format in this series. I’ll begin by discussing the player’s past production and history, focusing on their prior stats in the NFL and, in some cases, their draft profile. Then, I’ll move into why that player is a sleeper, specifically looking at and debunking negative narratives around that player. And finally, I’ll move into their expected 2020 outlook, and where I would draft the player on my redraft teams.

With that all out of the way, let’s get into my first sleeper, Hayden Hurst.

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