Opening Thoughts
From the start, I want to say that this will be a completely different type of article. You’re not going to hear about numbers or stats in this one. Instead, I’m going to take you through what I learned as a dynasty owner and analyst throughout the 2019 season. During the 2019 season, I didn’t write about dynasty for DFF. I was purely a redraft writer, and I wrote a weekly streaming column.
In April, I looked back at how I performed writing that streaming article, and I’ve included the links to those pieces at the bottom of this piece. Throughout the season, I learned and grew as a writer from writing that column. After the season wrapped, I decided to expand my focus to writing dynasty as well and joined the dynasty writing team.
I took my newfound writing skills and became a content workhorse. I’ve written over 125 articles for DFF in 2020, and I eventually became the director of DFF’s entire operations. However, none of that would have been possible without my progression during the 2019 season. Let me walk you through some of what I learned. In light of the COVID pandemic, I expect the 2020 season to be completely insane and different from any previous fantasy season. Therefore, I figured a look back to some normalcy might bring some brightness to the current state of affairs in the fantasy industry.
The Value of Remaining Calm
One of the biggest lessons I learned in 2019 was to remain calm as a dynasty owner. I made a bunch of bad trades overreacting to short-term production or injuries, which hampered my progress in my dynasty leagues. For example, after Hunter Henry’s Week 1 injury, I panic-sold him without waiting for more information. Henry returned in Week 6, and my trade looked silly. He regained his previous value, and I took a massive loss on that deal. I ended up reacquiring Henry later on during the season for more than double the price, compounding my mistake.
A few weeks into the season, I decided to trade A.J. Brown, who hadn’t produced at all in his rookie year. I packaged Brown and a 2020 first-round pick for Robert Woods, a 2020 second-round pick, and a 2021 second-round pick. Even though I ended up winning the title in that league, I would’ve been far better off keeping Brown. Brown broke out soon after I traded him away, vaulting to become a second-round startup value by the offseason.
Overall, even the most experienced dynasty players overreact to short-term value changes, especially during a regular season. With how crazy 2020 will be, we need to make sure to breathe a little. Your dynasty leagues will exist beyond 2020, so don’t screw your team long-term to fill a lineup spot one week. That’s a classic dynasty mistake that will only occur more in 2020. Don’t let it happen to you.
The Possibility of Massive and Rapid Value Changes
Another harsh lesson I learned in 2019 was just how quickly dynasty values could change in-season. During the offseason, dynasty value changes rapidly, but it’s usually in response to events we know are coming. These mainly include the start of the free agency period and the NFL Draft. While surprise events happen all the time, dynasty values are relatively stable throughout the offseason.
However, during the season, dynasty values can rapidly shift in response to events on the field, especially permanent changes or decisions that an NFL team makes. This type of change happens mostly at running back, but it can happen at any position. In 2019, the value of David Johnson and Kenyan Drake moved quickly in opposite directions, as Johnson lost his starting job to Drake in a couple of weeks.
While Johnson’s value somewhat recovered during the offseason after his move to the Texans, he lost 75% of his dynasty value in such a short period. At the same time, Drake vaulted from a forgotten man in Miami to a stud running back in Arizona. Drake didn’t complete his ascension until he received the transition tag from the Cardinals, but there’s no denying that he went up a few rounds after only a couple of games.
I “sold high” on Drake in a league at the beginning of his strong run, which ended up as a massive error. I violated the first rule in this article of remaining calm, and I also underestimated how quickly Drake’s value could continue to move. Drake is just one example of this type of value change, as other players like DeVante Parker had quick dynasty value spikes in 2019.
On the other hand, players in dynasty leagues can lose most of their value in the blink of an eye. Antonio Brown lost value in multiple spurts throughout 2019, as unflattering news surrounding his NFL prospects came out in various waves. Preseason hype prospects like Darwin Thompson flopped on the NFL field, eventually going down to almost no dynasty value. As many players lose value as those that gain it, so never forget that these value changes are a two-way street.
Overall, the key to dealing with value change in-season is to combine changing your thinking relatively quickly with being patient. Sometimes, you need to be patient and realize that a short-term NFL move is truly short-term, but at other times, it’s a harbinger of permanent change. Looking at player value from a global perspective and doing solid research is the best way to handle the craziness of in-season dynasty management. Without it, it’s tough to succeed as a dynasty player throughout the regular season, especially with 2020’s unique challenges on the horizon.
Winning a Dynasty League is Different from Winning a Redraft League
From reading that header title, you might think I’m stating the obvious. Of course, dynasty and redraft leagues are entirely different formats, requiring different strategies to win. However, that’s not exactly what I mean, and there’s one specific phenomenon that dynasty owners have to remember when evaluating their dynasty rosters versus their redraft teams.
In dynasty leagues, a winning team will be far better on average than the winning team in your redraft leagues. Over a more extended period, the difference between the better owners, and, therefore, the stronger teams, becomes more substantial. In redraft leagues, the draft is that very season. The difference between the best and worst teams will be smaller, even though waiver acquisitions and streaming can let the cream rise to the top.
However, in dynasty leagues, the league could be five, 10, or even 15 years old. Even if the league isn’t that old, there is more than one season to play for, so you will always have a few terrible teams that chose to tank that season. Therefore, if there are more bad teams, the top-end talent will be more concentrated among the best teams. I understand that this distinction seems small, but trust me that many dynasty owners aren’t thinking about it. Knowing and considering this perspective will give you an edge over your leaguemates.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Streamers Look Back: Quarterback, Tight End, D/ST
