Patrick Mahomes: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Past Production

 Year  Games   Completion %   Yards  TDs   INTs   Fantasy Finish   Fantasy PPG   PPG Rank 
 2017   1  62.9  284  0  1  –  –  –
 2018  16  66.0  5,097  50  12  QB1  25.9  1st
 2019  14  65.9  4,031   26  5  QB6  20.4  7th

The Chiefs selected Patrick Mahomes with the 10th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft as the long-term successor to incumbent starter Alex Smith. In 2017, Mahomes sat on the bench for almost the entire season, only playing Week 17 while Smith rested for the playoffs. After the 2017 season, the Chiefs decided to trade Smith to the Redskins, opening the door for Mahomes as the definite 2018 starting quarterback.

Almost immediately, Mahomes lit the NFL on fire, throwing 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first three NFL starts. He instantly became a high-end fantasy QB1, and he quickly rose to QB1 overall in dynasty rankings during the 2018 season. Mahomes’ 2018 season was one of the best seasons ever for a fantasy quarterback, at least until Lamar Jackson’s record-setting 2019 campaign.

In 2019, Mahomes started strong once again. From Weeks 1-6, he threw for 2,104 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and only one interception. He averaged 23.9 fantasy PPG during that stretch, a small step down from his 2018 numbers but still a fantastic mark. 

However, in Week 7, Mahomes suffered a dislocated right kneecap, which forced him out of that contest and to miss two further games. Once Mahomes returned in Week 10, he continued his strong play, but he wasn’t quite the same. He only threw 1,851 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions, a significant decline from his first six weeks. 

By the playoffs, Mahomes started to look fully healthy, and he dominated on the Chiefs’ Super Bowl run. He averaged 300 passing yards per game, and he threw 10 touchdowns versus two interceptions. Mahomes also returned to his rushing production, totaling 135 yards and two touchdowns during the playoffs. His production is bulletproof, and there’s no doubt about it.

2020 Outlook

In 2020, Mahomes is my solid QB2 behind Jackson. While Mahomes is a virtual lock for top-5 QB production, he doesn’t have the same rushing upside as Jackson. In redraft formats, Mahomes will likely go as a first or second-round pick, and I’ll have no shares. With that said, Mahomes returned his entire receiving corps from 2018 and 2019, including Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. He also upgraded at running back from Damien Williams to star rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Therefore, I’d be ecstatic to have Mahomes on my dynasty team as my quarterback, although he’s overpriced in redraft formats.

Dynasty Analysis

In superflex dynasty leagues, Mahomes is the top overall asset. If you are lucky enough to own him, do not trade him for any price. He will anchor your team for years to come, as he recently signed a 10-year extension worth over $500 million. You will not be able to replace 10 years of top-five quarterback production from the most talented quarterback I’ve ever seen play.

Even in 1 QB dynasty leagues, Mahomes is still my QB1 over Jackson due to longevity and his contract. However, since I usually fade quarterbacks in 1 QB leagues, I would love to sell-high on Mahomes and acquire a high-profile running back or wide receiver. Mahomes carries extreme dynasty value, but he won’t necessarily give you a massive production boost in any single year. The fact that I’m suggesting to sell Mahomes explains why I far prefer the superflex format for my dynasty leagues, as Mahomes carries the value he deserves.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

Be sure to check out the rest of our Dynasty Profile series!

jkarp

Columbia SPS Sports Management graduate. Director of content, writer, and ranker for @DFF_Redraft and writer for @DFF_Dynasty. #DFFArmy #FantasyFootball You can find me on Twitter @DFF_Karp.

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