In this article, it’s time to look at the dynasty dynamite canisters. These are the guys that can explode in value or blow up and become nothing. I expect each of these players to do exactly that by the end of 2020. There’s no in-between, as I don’t foresee a mediocre outcome. Most of these players are on their “last chance” for dynasty owners. But, each has the upside to be a top asset.
Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller
Both Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller represent a similar proposition for dynasty owners. When each player is fully healthy, they’re a WR1. I wrote about Cooks recently this offseason, and I recommended him as a dynasty buy. I won’t get back into Cooks’ detailed stats, but suffice it to say, he was a solid WR1 from 2015-2018, despite playing for three different teams.
In 2019, Cooks struggled with concussions. Although he only missed two games, he has a history of concussion issues, with five in his NFL career. Therefore, it would be reckless to ignore the likely fact that Cooks is one concussion away from being out of the NFL. However, on the other hand, concussions aren’t particularly predictable. We’ve seen multiple players like Davante Adams that have concussion concerns that suddenly vanish.
Either way, the Texans traded a second-round pick for Cooks to fill the void left by DeAndre Hopkins’ departure. If Cooks stays healthy, he will smash his current dynasty value. Also, as Cooks only turns 27 years old in September, he could regain value throughout the 2020 dynasty cycle. With that said, Cooks’ floor is a value of zero, as he could be out of the NFL entirely after 2020.
Like Cooks, Fuller comes with similar risks. In four seasons in the NFL, Fuller has only played 42 of 64 possible games. After his rookie year, he’s never played more than 11 games, continually struggling with leg injuries. While the Texans picked up Fuller’s 2020 fifth-year option, it’s safe to say that 2020 is Fuller’s final chance to prove he can stay healthy, both for the Texans and for dynasty owners.
Looking at Fuller’s raw stats and per-game averages don’t tell the full story. He’s averaged 3.7 catches and 53.1 yards per game in his career, but he played hurt in many of those contests. However, in 2018 and 2019, Fuller played all of his 18 games with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Throughout those games, Fuller averaged a 16-game pace of 72 receptions on 103 targets for 1,043 yards and six touchdowns. Considering that Fuller missed time throughout many of those games, that pace is rather impressive.
In summary, both Cooks and Fuller have an opportunity to fill Hopkins’ role as the Texans’ top receiver. Recently, I broke down Hopkins’ performance from a redraft angle. Hopkins had 150 or more targets every season from 2015-2019, so there’s a massive hole to fill on the Texans. Watson is a star quarterback and will produce fantasy numbers, and both Cooks and Fuller have the talent to be a number one receiver. Therefore, each of them can be a nitro boost to your dynasty team, but both can also go straight to the dumpster bin.
Ronald Jones
Unlike Cooks and Fuller, Ronald Jones doesn’t come with significant injury concerns. In 2018, Jones struggled to find his footing as a rookie, only playing in nine games. While he did miss a few games with a hamstring injury, he missed some of those games as a healthy scratch. The Buccaneers’ previous coaching staff, led by Dirk Koetter, preferred Peyton Barber over Jones, barely giving Jones a chance as a rookie. Considering that Koetter was coaching for his job, I can’t necessarily blame him for leaning on the veteran. But, it’s still a bad sign that Jones didn’t do much as a rookie.
After 2018, the Buccaneers fired Koetter and replaced him with Bruce Arians. While Arians didn’t consistently trust Jones as the lead back, he gave Jones the primary share of the Bucs’ backfield touches. Jones had 18 more carries and 15 more receptions than Barber. Also, Jones averaged 4.2 YPC and 10.0 yards/reception, far superior marks to Barber in both categories. Unfortunately, Jones didn’t get enough volume to break out in fantasy football, finishing as the RB25 with only 10.4 fantasy PPG.
For dynasty running backs, they rarely retain value without breaking out for two years, let alone three years. Therefore, 2020 is Jones’ absolute last chance to make a fantasy impact. Otherwise, his dynasty value will completely evaporate. The Buccaneers drafted running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft to compete with Jones. Even though Vaughn is older than Jones and has inferior draft capital, he is no slouch and he represents real competition.
On the bright side, the Buccaneers replaced pass-happy Jameis Winston with more conservative Tom Brady. Brady enjoys throwing to his running backs, as he’s made James White into a PPR value for years. Unlike popular narratives might suggest, Jones is not a bad receiver, nor is Vaughn a stud in the receiving game. While the Buccaneers have third-down back Dare Ogunbowale on the team, he’s not a genuine threat to Jones and Vaughn.
Therefore, Jones has a real opportunity to be a workhorse back. The team has made it clear that Jones will get the first crack at the starting job, especially with the shortened offseason and lack of preseason games. If Jones takes the job and runs with it, he will vault up dynasty rankings. Jones only turns 23 years old in August. So, he’s still a young player with room to rise in dynasty value.
However, as I mentioned before, running backs get three chances at the absolute most. If Jones loses the job to Vaughn, he will never regain his dynasty or real-life value and will become worthless. There’s no way that Jones will retain his current dynasty price tag around RB30-35. It’s just a question of which direction he goes.
Drew Lock
I think most people agree with my assessment of the previous players. They’re pretty clearly on their last chance, having frustrated fantasy owners for years. However, I’m not sure that the general dynasty community realizes that Drew Lock is the same type of dynasty asset.
The Broncos drafted Drew Lock in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft with the 42nd overall pick. Unlike first-round quarterbacks, any other quarterbacks drafted are not guaranteed a shot at a starting job, let alone expected to be a team’s long-term starter. After missing the first 11 games with a thumb injury, the Broncos inserted Lock near the end of the 2019 season, replacing an injured Joe Flacco and an ineffective Brandon Allen.
In those five games, Lock completed 64.1% of his passes and threw seven touchdowns compared to three interceptions. However, he only managed 204 yards/game and 6.5 yards/attempt, neither of which represents impressive numbers for a quarterback. Probably his most notable stat is that he won four of his five starts.
Although Lock wasn’t great as a quarterback down the stretch, he certainly did enough to earn the 2020 season as the Broncos’ undisputed starting quarterback. Also, the Broncos added multiple weapons to their offense, including running back Melvin Gordon, rookie wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, and Lock’s former college teammate tight end Albert Okwuegbunam. Those new weapons join the Broncos’ previous core of Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Phillip Lindsay to form a dynamic set of offensive weapons for Lock.
The main danger is that the Broncos haven’t invested that much in Lock. If Lock fails in 2020, despite all the weapons around him, the team could quickly move in a different direction at the quarterback position. The 2021 draft class includes excellent prospects Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance, all of whom I’d prefer as a long-term option to Lock. Also, multiple former starting quarterbacks will be free agents, including Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. Finally, the Broncos could look at a disgruntled, incumbent starter like Aaron Rodgers via trade to upgrade from Lock.
To me, there’s no middle ground for Lock. He either will come out and succeed with the plethora of weapons in Denver, or he will lose his job in 2021. Therefore, Lock is not going to maintain his current value of a mid-QB2. If he does well, he’ll be in the QB1 range after 2020, and if he doesn’t, he’ll drop outside of the top 30. When drafting or acquiring Lock, make sure you keep in mind both his upside and downside.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
