Sleeper Series: Sterling Shepard

Methodology and Intro

After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet!

Now, I want to jump into Sterling Shepard. I wrote a redraft breakdown about Shepard and the rest of the Giants in May as my first piece in that 32-part series. Outside of star running back Saquon Barkley, the Giants have four secondary offensive options in Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, and Shepard. Back then, I recommended fading Shepard and saw Golden Tate as the best sleeper in the Giants offense. However, at this point, I’ve come around to Shepard as the best overall option at cost. Let’s get into why.

Past Production

Here are Shepard’s full NFL stats.

Somewhat surprisingly, Shepard has always been a fantasy-relevant option, averaging double-digit PPR points in every season of his four-year career. From 2016-2018, Shepard played as the second wide receiver behind Odell Beckham Jr. Most notably, Shepard had his best year in 2017, when Beckham Jr. missed a majority of the season.

In 2019, the Giants traded Beckham Jr. to the Browns, opening the door for Shepard to challenge for the top receiver role. The Giants also extended Shepard’s contract, paying him $41 million with $21.3 million guaranteed over four years through 2023. Shepard’s new deal even slightly exceeded what the Giants paid to free-agent Golden Tate, demonstrating the value the Giants placed on Shepard.

Throughout his career, Shepard has averaged 4.7 receptions and 54 yards per game, solid numbers for an NFL WR2. However, he’s never quite become the fantasy star many expected after his strong 2017 season. He regressed in 2018 when Beckham Jr. returned to the lineup, and he then struggled with concussions in 2019. Additionally, from a week-to-week perspective, Shepard has served as more of a matchup or streaming play. He’s never someone you wanted to rely on as a weekly option, but he’s a safe option in strong matchups.

The Prevailing Narrative

The main negative narrative surrounding Shepard is that he has no real upside. He’s never been the true primary option for the Giants, as he played behind Odell Beckham Jr. for 2016-2018. Then, in 2019, he missed six games, allowing Slayton to capture more attention. Since Slayton was the hot and new option, fantasy owners got excited and stopped paying attention to Shepard.

Also, there is justifiable concern about Shepard’s concussion history. Shepard suffered two concussions in 2019, which forced him to miss those six games. In dynasty formats, I understand entirely worrying about concussions, but Shepard is healthy right now. I don’t care that much about concussion issues in redraft leagues unless it’s a very high-priced player. However, those concerns are indeed partially responsible for pushing Shepard down draft boards.

2020 Outlook

In 2020, my PPR ranks for the Giants almost identically align with FantasyPros consensus ADP. I rank Slayton at WR43, Shepard at WR44, and Tate at WR53 while ADP has Slayton at WR42, Shepard at WR45, and Tate at WR55. I also have Evan Engram as my TE8, similar to his ADP of TE6.

However, just because my rankings are similar doesn’t mean that all those players will finish in those spots or have identical upsides. Engram has shown no ability to stay healthy, and I’ve labeled him as a massive bust going into 2020. Tate is a declining asset who turns 32 before the season. He’s not going to improve or take a step forward in 2020.

While Slayton impressed as a rookie, the Giants’ passing offense should support two reliable options outside of Barkley’s contributions. If Engram can’t stay healthy and Tate declines, both Slayton and Shepard can produce. Shepard has always produced decent numbers in his career, despite never being the top option. 

In 2019, Shepard finally played with a competent quarterback in Daniel Jones instead of the corpse of Eli Manning. Jones should improve entering his second year, although he did play pretty well as a rookie. Shepard recorded the best fantasy PPG of his career last year, and he led Giants’ receivers in receptions and targets per game by a decent margin. Shepard also recently turned 27 years old in February, so he’s entering his prime as a wide receiver. Therefore, Shepard has significant upside to exceed his WR45 ADP and could represent a value in redraft leagues in 2020.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

Previous Articles in the Series: Intro + Hayden Hurst, Sony Michel