The 2020 rookie class was a loaded group that had dynasty owners’ attention for years. I’ve written about the class three separate times: before the NFL Draft, live during the NFL Draft, and about a month ago. I’ve included all the links to those previous series at the bottom of the page. However, in those articles, I focused on the rookies from a redraft perspective and how they will impact redraft rosters in 2020.
Now, it’s time to take a different slant on the 2020 rookie class. I want to look at the class from a dynasty perspective, specifically looking at the busts. When we look back in a few years, what players will we regret having selected in our rookie drafts? It’s not too late to move away from these players, so perhaps you might want to consider selling them before their value drops. I’m not necessarily saying that any of these players will completely bust, but I am saying that they won’t live up to their draft cost.
J.K. Dobbins
In 1QB leagues, I have noticed a general, clear top nine rookies in this class. While not everyone has them in the same order, most people have Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Reagor, and Justin Jefferson as their top nine rookies. I generally love the overall prices on all these players, and I value most of them at or above their current consensus cost and ADP.
However, Dobbins is the one player in the group that I feel might be a bust at his cost. I’m not saying that I dislike Dobbins in dynasty formats. I have him as my 28th overall player in my 1 QB dynasty rankings, so he’s a third-round startup pick. Unfortunately, Dobbins seems to be a consensus second-round dynasty startup pick, which I believe gives him a value he hasn’t earned yet.
In terms of pure talent, Dobbins is a far cry from Taylor, the clear top talent at running back in the 2020 class. While Dobbins is a solid prospect, I believe he’s more in the same range as Edwards-Helaire, Swift, and Akers. Dobbins was the last of those running backs to get picked in the NFL Draft, slipping to the Ravens with 55th overall selection.
After the NFL Draft, Edwards-Helaire and Taylor made a clear top tier for running backs, based on Taylor’s talent and Edwards-Helaire’s draft capital and landing spot. However, some people vaulted Dobbins just behind them. While Dobbins is my 1.03, I have him far closer to Swift and Akers than Edwards-Helaire and Dobbins.
Dobbins will start the 2020 season as the backup to Mark Ingram, which could depress his short-term value. The Ravens’ offense is run-heavy, but Dobbins could lose some rushing touchdowns to Lamar Jackson. Jackson had 176 carries and 1,206 rushing yards in 2019, but he only scored seven rushing touchdowns. I expect Jackson to score more touchdowns if he maintains that level of rushing volume.
Overall, I’m not 100% confident that Dobbins will be an excellent real-life NFL running back. I think that he could be, but I would have to be entirely sure to spend a top startup pick on him. I prefer to take some established and known running backs like Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler over Dobbins. I’d also be happy to pivot to wide receiver, as proven stud players like Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., and Kenny Golladay are all going lower than Dobbins in dynasty startups. Again, I don’t hate Dobbins, but he has far less upside than downside at his current price.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
Right after the NFL Draft, I had a rosy outlook for Vaughn, expecting him to take over the starting job from incumbent Ronald Jones. At the time, I thought that Jones had played poorly in 2018 and 2019, and Vaughn was the new starter. Also, Vaughn provided pass-catching skills, making him a perfect match for new Buccaneers’ quarterback Tom Brady.
However, by the time I wrote my Buccaneers’ redraft breakdown in mid-June, I had reversed course, ranking Jones as RB34 and Vaughn at RB36. I still saw the two players as similar, but the Buccaneers had consistently stated their confidence in Jones as their starting running back. Therefore, I had to change course and rank Jones above Vaughn in 2020.
Recently, I wrote an article about Jones and his dynasty upside. In that article, I mentioned that only Jones could be a real workhorse in the Buccaneers’ backfield. I also realized that Jones performed far better as a pass-catcher in 2019 than I thought, potentially making Vaughn superfluous. At this point, I have Jones as RB31 and Vaughn at RB40. Therefore, the gap between the two in 2020 has only widened further.
From a dynasty angle, Vaughn comes into the NFL at 23 years old and is four months older than Jones. As Vaughn is a running back, he needs to hit by age 24 to make a massive dynasty impact, so he only has a short window in which to excel. Unlike a 21-year old running back, dynasty owners will not have multiple years of patience with Vaughn.
Also, Buccaneers’ head coach Bruce Arians has a history of failing to use younger running backs in favor of older veterans. In 2015, Arians benched star rookie David Johnson to use plodders Andre Ellington and a washed-up Chris Johnson. Then, in 2019, Arians favored Peyton Barber over a far more effective Jones. However, by the end of 2019, Arians began to trust Jones, demonstrating that Jones had started to impress Arians.
Many dynasty owners spent a first-round round pick on Vaughn. While that was a colossal mistake, and Vaughn’s value has already declined, now is the time to get out. Once Jones begins the season as the starter, Vaughn will never regain his dynasty value. I also believe that Jones is the more talented back, so I don’t necessarily expect Vaughn to win the job later.
I currently value Vaughn as the 16th overall rookie and 101st overall player in 1QB dynasty leagues. His consensus value is far higher, so you should be able to trade Vaughn at a reasonable price. But trust me, get out now while you still can. You’re holding a bomb, and you don’t want to be the one holding it when it explodes.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Original Redraft Rookie Breakdown Series: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4
NFL Draft Quick Takes: Round 1, Round 2, Round 3, Rounds 4-7
Rookie Redraft Updates: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Risers
