The Raiders have one of the muddiest receiving groups in the NFL, with a quagmire of options. Based on their dynasty values, I’ll take a look at all the receiving options and give you the smart bet for 2020 and beyond. I already broke down the entire Raiders’ offense for redraft purposes, but I want to take more of a dynasty slant, focusing on the receiving group.
What The Raiders Did in 2019
Going into 2019, the Raiders had a clear plan for their receiving group. They traded for Antonio Brown to be their alpha or X receiver and lead the receivers. They also signed Tyrell Williams in free agency to a 4-year, $44 million contract as a speedy, deep threat to play the Z receiver role.
With the two outside receivers locked-in, the Raiders had some question marks at slot receiver and tight end in their base 11 personnel. However, during training camp and the preseason, fifth-round rookie slot man Hunter Renfrow and receiving tight end Darren Waller emerged as the likely starters. Unfortunately, the Raiders never got to see their intended offense play out, as Brown never played a snap for the team.
Without Brown, the Raiders’ offense became a mess. Renfrow, Williams, and Waller played in their intended roles, each finding some success at various times. However, the Raiders never found an X receiver to replace Brown, tanking their entire offense. They tried multiple receivers at that spot, even though they had no good options. Zay Jones, Trevor Davis, Keelan Doss, Marcell Ateman, Ryan Grant, and J.J. Nelson all saw playing time, each failing to make an impact.
Outside of Renfrow, Williams, and Waller, the Raiders compensated for their lack of receiving weapons by throwing to their running backs. Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, and Josh Jacobs finished fourth through sixth on the team in targets. They totaled 92 receptions on 111 targets, essentially serving as the Raiders’ replacement fourth receiving option.
The Acquisitions
Going into 2020, the Raiders needed to make significant changes to their receiving group. While Renfrow and Williams showed some intrigue, only Waller displayed any consistency in 2019. Therefore, the Raiders needed to acquire additional wide receivers to complement and eventually supplant their existing options, especially as both Renfrow and Waller missed some time in 2019.
In the first round, the Raiders selected Henry Ruggs III, a speedster out of Alabama, with the 12th overall pick. They also added two intriguing receiving weapons in the third round with back-to-back picks at 80th and 81st overall. They selected RB/WR hybrid Lynn Bowden Jr. from Kentucky, and then they picked traditional receiver Bryan Edwards from South Carolina.
The Raiders made some under-the-radar acquisitions in free agency, signing tight end Jason Witten and receiver Nelson Agholor, but they pale compared to their draft picks. I see Witten as a short-term replacement for currently injured second-year tight end Foster Moreau. Agholor is solely a backup slot receiver that represents insurance for Renfrow.
The Sucker Bet
As much as I love his prospect profile, the sucker bet on the Raiders in dynasty formats is Bryan Edwards. This recommendation has nothing to do with Edwards’ talent, as I believe that Edwards is one of the most dynamic receivers in the 2020 draft class. However, dynasty football is a market-based game.
If you invest in Bryan Edwards right now, you’re predicting that he will overcome a foot injury and a virtual offseason to produce in his rookie year. Considering that he only has third-round draft capital, that is a sucker bet. The Raiders will begin the season starting Ruggs, Williams, and Renfrow as their top three receivers, forcing Edwards into a depth role.
While I worry a bit about Ruggs’ ability to produce in 2020, his skill set translates better to immediate production than Edwards’ abilities do. Ruggs reminds me a lot of Marquise Brown, a receiver with deep speed that can enter the NFL as a number one option and use his speed to dominate immediately. Edwards is more of a big-bodied player that projects in a typical X receiver role. Those types of players don’t tend to produce right away, as they need to master technical routes that don’t rely on pure speed.
In review, I project Edwards as the long-term starter at pure outside receiver for the Raiders. I think he’s a perfect complement to Ruggs, as they play two completely different styles of wide receiver. However, you’re just not going to see Edwards produce in 2020. After 2020, the Raiders can get out of Williams’ contract for zero dead money and save $11.6 in cap space. At that time, Edwards’ value should soar, as he’ll be a definite starter heading into 2021. With that in mind, I recommend waiting for Edwards’ price to drop and buying him mid-season around Week 8 or 9 when he hasn’t produced yet.
The Smart Bet
While Ruggs can produce in Year 1, I don’t think he’s going to do enough to skyrocket his value. I predict we’ll see flashes as we saw from Brown or Mecole Hardman, but not enough to make Ruggs a good dynasty bet to increase in value over 2020. The smart play is to avoid all the wide receivers for now and to invest in Darren Waller.
Now, I hear what you might be thinking: this idea sounds silly. Why is the best dynasty move to invest in a tight end that turns 28 in September who’s only ever produced one fantasy-relevant NFL season? The reason why it makes sense is that this season is unlike any other season we’ve seen before.
Despite all the Raiders’ failures in 2019, they consistently relied on Waller as their top target, using him ahead of both Renfrow and Williams. Waller had 90 receptions on 117 targets for 1,145 yards and three touchdowns. He caught 76.9% of his targets and averaged a stellar 9.8 yards/target.
Also, quarterback Derek Carr both has chemistry with Waller and enjoys throwing short passes to the tight end. Even if Carr gets replaced by backup Marcus Mariota, Mariota made Delanie Walker a reliable fantasy TE1 during his time as the starter in Tennessee. Given that we’ve had no offseason program, the Raiders and Carr will stick to what they know, and they will feed Waller with targets.
Because of his age and late breakout, dynasty owners continue to undervalue Waller. I bet that you can acquire him for a second-round pick in non-TE premium leagues, a price I would jump on. Don’t wait to make a move because once Waller begins scoring points, you won’t be able to buy him anymore.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
