Why Veterans Are the Key to Fantasy Championships: A 2020 Edition

Intro

In dynasty leagues, there’s always a delicate balance that owners must forge between dynasty value and winning championships. In the end, the goal is to win the most championships possible, as quickly as possible. However, sometimes, dynasty owners need to rebuild and trade away their veterans to return to contending status.

There’s nothing wrong with that approach, as I detailed in an article guiding dynasty owners in determining whether they’re contenders or not. Taking a mild step backward to take a big step forward is a healthy decision and often tough to make. With that said, I want to move away from individual dynasty teams and look more closely at how two specific groups of players have performed over time. It’s time for an in-depth breakdown of what rookies and older veterans do for your roster.

Rookie Impact

In dynasty leagues, we go wild every year for the incoming rookie class. The class’s strength doesn’t even matter because rookie fever is one of the most constant forces in dynasty leagues. However, if you’re relying on rookies to be the lifeblood of your contending dynasty roster, you might have a hard time. Let’s look at how many rookies per year were fantasy-relevant: top-12 at QB and TE and top-24 at RB and WR.

Rookie Production

This table looks brutal, right? Outside of running back, there hasn’t been more than one significant rookie contributor at any position over the past five years. 

Rookie quarterbacks and tight ends rarely break out, especially tight ends. Evan Engram’s bizarre 2017 season stands out as the one outlier in recent memory, but more often, rookie tight ends are giant busts. This year, Cole Kmet was the only tight end taken in the first two rounds, and he didn’t even go off the board until the 43rd pick. Don’t count on any rookie tight ends helping your dynasty teams, especially not in this terrible tight end class.

As for quarterbacks, most rookie quarterbacks don’t start immediately, which of course, makes it tough for them to be top-12 at the position. The two players that have are Kyler Murray in 2019 and Dak Prescott. Both players started immediately and took advantage of rushing production. That’s why I think Joe Burrow has an outside shot to finish in the top-12 in 2020 since he will start Week 1 and provides rushing value. While he doesn’t run on Murray’s level, Burrow could provide a rushing floor similar to Prescott’s. Even so, Burrow won’t be a league-winner in Year 1, as neither Prescott nor Murray finished in the top-five as rookies.

While wide receivers offer a bit more hope than quarterbacks or tight ends, it’s still a fool’s bet to rely on them for championship teams. Most rookie wide receivers that finish in the top-24 break out in the second half of the season, like A.J. Brown in 2019. No receiver has come straight out as a reliable WR2 from the jump since perhaps Amari Cooper in 2015, and I don’t expect any to manage the feat in 2020.

Unlike the other positions, rookie running backs do make a difference in fantasy leagues. Outside of 2016, three or more rookies finished in the top-24, and I expect that to remain the same in 2020. I currently rank Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor well inside my top 24 with Edwards-Helaire at RB9 and Taylor at RB17. I also think Cam Akers, D’Andre Swift, and J.K. Dobbins have a chance at breaking into the top-24, as they’re all ranked between RB24 and RB30 for me.

However, as a whole, you’re not going to win a dynasty league with a lineup consisting of mostly rookies. Even in the loaded 2020 class, I only see Taylor and Edwards-Helaire as potential high-end players in Year 1, and this is one of the best draft classes in recent memory. Dynasty owners must have a solid veteran foundation to win titles because rookies take time to develop. 

That doesn’t mean rookie picks are a lousy asset, as rookie players can gain dynasty value without necessarily helping you win. Typically, rookies don’t need to finish as usable contributors to increase in value, especially outside of the running back position. Just keep in mind that table when you’re projecting year 1 contributions from rookies. 

Value of Veterans Beyond the Age Cliff

I’m not going to rehash the age cliff in this article. I tried doing an article about the age cliff for RB1s in the past, but I realized that production isn’t the key metric for the age cliff. What matters is at what age dynasty owners and the dynasty market starts to devalue a player for “being old.” In my experience, that point comes around 36 for quarterbacks, 27 for running backs, and 30 for wide receivers and tight ends. 

After that point, players will not gain dynasty value no matter how they produce on the field. For example, Julio Jones will decline in dynasty value from 2020 to 2021, even if he finishes as the WR1 overall because he’s past the age cliff. There are, of course, exceptions, usually players that break out of nowhere late in the career. However, as a whole, those ages are a useful general guide. Let’s look at how many top seasons players in this post-age cliff group have produced. For reference, I’ve calculated age on September 1st of that season.

Post-Age Cliff Production (QB 36+, RB 27+, WR 30+, TE 30+)

Stunningly, there have been by far the most usable running backs beyond the age cliff. I didn’t know what the numbers would be when I picked the cut-offs, so I’m just as surprised as you might be reading this table. I think there are some key takeaways from each position.

At quarterback, I believe that we will continue to see fewer and fewer older quarterbacks breaking into the top-12. In today’s NFL, there are many mobile quarterbacks, and rushing yards score more fantasy points than passing yards. Rushing touchdowns are always worth six points while these ranks come from four-point passing touchdown scoring. However, in superflex formats, many older quarterbacks are still producing, even if they’re not top-12. Therefore, I’d look at older players more in a superflex format versus a 1 QB league.

When going through the older running backs, I noticed many third-down types, like Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead, James White, and so on. Those players seem to age better than early-down rushers, and they provide a massive value opportunity in dynasty leagues. Dynasty owners seem to discount the upside of PPR backs, even though almost all dynasty leagues are PPR formats. Many of the older third-down backs have recently retired, but keep in mind that players like White or Tarik Cohen will have far longer careers than two-down backs. Perhaps they should have more dynasty value as a result.

I also was a bit surprised that so few receivers over 30 made the top-24. Larry Fitzgerald and Julian Edelman combined for five of the total 14 appearances. They both play mostly from the slot and rely heavily on route-running to succeed. Almost no “big” alpha receivers made the list, which worries me for the long-term value of players like Julio Jones or A.J. Green. It’s possible that they can perform a mid-career pivot like Fitzgerald and develop into a slot receiver, but there’s no guarantee. I would say to avoid any expensive WRs over 30 since the success rate of making the top-24 is minimal. However, buying cheap replacements over the cliff like Marvin Jones or Golden Tate can make sense, as long as you’re not expecting top-24 production.

As for tight ends, they seem to have a better chance of maintaining their production than wide receivers. Buying cheap, veteran tight ends and recycling them is one of my favorite ways to manage the position in dynasty leagues. You can acquire players over the age cliff like Jack Doyle, Jared Cook, or Greg Olsen for almost nothing, and each could provide significant production in 2020. I recommend avoiding paying up for young, hyped tight end prospects and buying the older guys that nobody wants.

Overall, there are very few players at any position that produce at a high level beyond the age cliff. As a dynasty market, I think we’ve set the age cliff at an appropriate level, although perhaps we should make a clear distinction between two-down and PPR running backs. The key is to avoid paying up for the expensive veterans past the age cliff since you’ll tank your dynasty team. Focus on cheap veteran options and avoid players like Le’Veon Bell, Julio Jones, and Travis Kelce.

2020 and COVID

As I mentioned in the contenders article, 2020 is going to be a wild season. Between opt-outs and potential COVID outbreaks, contending dynasty teams will require extra depth to make it through a full season. Buying veterans beyond the age cliff can be an excellent way to compete this year without mortgaging your future. 

It’s a great time to buy-low on cheap veterans, given all the uncertainty. Nobody wants those players because they’re scared they’ll lose all their value if there’s no season. I can practically guarantee that there will be a season given the monetary value it brings to the NFL and the NFLPA, so I’m happy to take advantage of other dynasty owners’ fear. Capitalize on this opportunity now because you won’t be able to once the season starts, and your league mates realize the season will proceed.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.