What is up DFF Army? It’s that time of the week for us to provide some insightful Week 13 suggestions. Although new information always causes us to reconsider things, we now have enough information to drive decision-making. As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups.

TERMS TO KNOW – SEE WEEK 2

WEEK 12 REVIEW

According to the Chinese Zodiac signs, 2021 is the year of the Ox. However, I am officially declaring 2021 as the NFL year of the dog! 

Last week the underdog came out of the game victorious at a 57% rate. For the entire season, the underdogs are covering the spread at a 54% clip. Also in Week 12, the Under hit seven times (50%) compared to seven Overs (50%).

THE SUNDAY SLATE

Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.

HIGH-LEVEL TRENDS

Here is how each team is performing so far this season. The teams are sorted in decreasing order by how many points they have scored against the spread so far this season.

As you can see, a number that sticks out is that the Colts and Rams have hit the Over on better than  64% of their games. There are very different reasons, might I add, on how they got there. On the other hand, the Broncos and Jaguars have hit the Over in just two of their respective games. This is something we may see bookmakers adjust to their opening points totals respectfully for each team.

Interestingly, certain cohorts of combined points totals set by the bookmakers have some hot and cold spots. Take a look at the below chart that shows the combined points totals expected by bookmakers and how frequently they hit the Over.

From this graphic, we can see that below 43 combined points have a slightly stronger chance of hitting, with 55% Overs so far this year. Then we have a cold spot from 43-47 point lines. These two cohorts are hitting the Over at a combined rate of just 38%. As we make our way up, we find a very hot spot from 47.5 to 49.5 combined points lines which hit at 55%. We run into another cold zone from 50-52 expected combined points, and then anything above 52.5 has regressed to a 50% clip. We will apply these trends to our Under/Over suggestions for Week 13. The 47.5 to 49.5 lines are the only ones to this point that we are suggesting to bet the Overs on blindly. The rest are dependent on the matchup and injuries.

With twelve weeks in the books, we have enough data to start building out more intricate data models. In Week 6 I rolled out NFL Power Rankings based on Adjusted Wins. Adjusted wins count a team’s wins plus the number of wins that the teams they beat have. What this does is it gives more credence to a team that beats a four-win team compared to a zero-win team. In Week 7 we also made a minor change to how we calculate adjusted wins. It is now counted as 1/4th of the opponent wins adjusted, this is to not give too much credit to a team having better or worse than expected weeks. However, at this point, we are going to be using this metric to identify teams that Vegas may be overrating based on past success, rather than being predictive of future wins.

The surging Green Bay Packers come in first place this week. They are followed up by the Cardinals, Ravens, Patriots, Buccaneers, and Titans rounding out the top-six teams in the NFL. The Adjusted Wins model stayed strong despite the chaotic Week 12, with a correlation of an R-Squared value of 0.90! That means that it is nearly a perfect predictor for Moneyline bets.

Points Differential also has a strong correlation with wins given its 0.76 R-squared value. Points For is a bit less strong and has jumped the shark as it has an R-squared value of 0.77. 

We have developed a few new metrics to help us navigate through the data as well. First, see Pythagorean Wins. This is a metric that uses points differential to look at what teams are likely to regress season over season. We made a slight adjustment to the formula to look at how many games we expect a team to win in this new 17-game season. This metric has a very strong correlation to team wins with an R-Squared value of 0.75.

MONEYLINE PICKS

Here is how the model using Adjusted Wins says that you should bet the Moneyline for Week 13. Moneyline parlays are a great way to boost your potential winnings on wagers. Use this chart to pick and choose which games you would like to include on your Moneyline parlay for Week 13.

Based on the number of games that have large spreads (7-points and over), there is little payout in Moneyline parlays without sneaking a few clear underdogs in there.

HIGH CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are the games that our model likes in projecting points differential in these games, and smoothing by our Adjusted Wins metric. These are the games with the highest level of confidence in our suggestions, but our suggestions will be based on current events along with what our model indicates. These will likely be marquee matchups, with heightened levels of information on the matchups. We want to focus the majority of our bankroll on these games.

BAL(4.5) @ PIT

The Steelers appear to be more scared of Winter than Westeros. Ben Roethlisberger’s health and effectiveness seem to be dissipating in front of our eyes. I expect Lamar Jackson to have an “MVP moment” despite the lack of talent surrounding him. I expect the Ravens to cover as the Steelers’ offensive woes remain prevalent.

JAX(13) @ LAR

Matthew Stafford’s injury is severely impacting his play. He has three straight games throwing a pick-six. We expect the Rams to get up early on the Jaguars and then get Stafford out of the way of further injuring his back. Expect a lot of running in this game and bet on the combined points being under 48.

TB(-11) @ ATL

We are going to keep it simple and assume that the trend of underdogs covering continues, especially going through the ten-point spread threshold. We are betting the Buccaneers Moneyline.

ARI(-7.5) @ CHI

Justin Fields‘ status for Sunday is unclear, but Kyler Murray is trending towards playing. With both quarterbacks’ health in question, we want to bet on the better roster, which is clearly the Cardinals. I like the Cardinals Moneyline here with questions about how active and efficient the Cardinals’ passing offense will be with a hampered Murray.

NYG(4.5) @ MIA

The Dolphins are surprisingly the third-highest early-down neutral script passing team, passing at a 61% rate and averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, a 50% success rate. With Daniel Jones ruled out and the Dolphins being home favorites, we can expect this to yield an early lead for the Dolphins on their pass success and Mike Glennon failing to keep these Giants competitive. 

IND(-10) @ HOU

Jonathan Taylor will continue to push for MVP status as the quarterbacks all have red flags on their 2021 seasons. Take the Colts Moneyline and bet up Taylor props wherever possible.

SF(-3.5) @ SEA

The Seahawks have been struggling severely on offense since the Russell Wilson injury. In fact, they have scored only three touchdowns on 30 possessions since the injury hit. However, the 49ers are without arguably their best players on both sides of the ball in Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner. I expect the contrasting styles of play between Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson to be the deciding factor and am laying the points on the 49ers here.

DEN(9.5) @ KC

Teams coming off the bye week this season have covered in only six of their 24 games. This is due to the lack of contact that teams are allowed to have with players under the new CBA. Andy Reid, though, has a historically impressive record off the bye. Since he became a head coach in 1999, Reid has an amazing .844 winning percentage when given an extra week of preparation. I expect the Chiefs to win, but am not certain about their ability to cover 9.5 points against a surging Broncos division rival. Chiefs Moneyline.

MIDDLE CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are the games that we feel strongly about, but would not be surprised if the script flipped on us. These are the games that we may be working into teasers and parlays with bigger payouts if we hit.

LAC(3) @ CIN

Do Bengals cover, given each team’s current success rushing and defending the rush schematically?

The Chargers went into their bye week saying they were going to be a more explosive offense on early downs. Though they haven’t been pushing the ball down the field on those plays, they are passing on 59% of early downs. They are averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and have a success rate of 56%. However, the Bengals are currently one of the top rushing teams in the league. The Chargers are inviting teams to run over the right side, averaging 7.1 yards per carry behind the Right Tackle and 5.4 yards per rush to the right outside zone. 

Bet the Chargers if you think that their early-down passing rate will yield more explosive plays.

Bet the Bengals if you believe that they will continue winning in the trenches and that the Chargers will continue to produce explosive plays.

NE(2.5) @ BUF 

There will likely be winds topping 20MPH on Monday Night Football. While this doesn’t impact Josh Allen’s passes, it will impact Mac Jones’s deep balls. However, the Bills have had no answer for the Titans’ and Colts’ power rushing schemes, allowing 328 rushing yards and seven touchdowns to just Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor combined (does not include other rushers on the Titans or Colts). 

Bet the Patriots if you believe the Patriots can maintain their early lead and keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands and in the hands of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Tre’Davious White has been ruled out for this game, which helps the Patriots’ passing offense despite the gusting winds.

Bet the Bills if you believe the winds will dynamically constrain the Patriots’ offense and the Bills will be able to keep everything in front of them while maintaining running their offense through Stefon Diggs on intermediate routes.

LOW CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are games that we are staying away from or putting less than 5% of our bankroll on. These games we have low confidence in picking and will provide suggestions if you are looking to add them into a parlay for huge payouts.

MIN(-7.5) @ DET

The Lions are surprisingly good against the spread. However, I can’t make a single suggestion for why you could feel comfortable taking just seven and a half points with a zero-win roster.

PHI(-7) @ NYJ

The Eagles are one of the most explosive run play teams, but they are the worst passing team in efficiency. Zero-trust on either side.

WFT(1) @ LV

West coast pick’em in the afternoon window. Darren Waller is trending towards not playing, and the Raiders have struggled to find the answers on offense without him and Ruggs. It’s a pick’em, so if you have a team you’re pulling for then feel free to put a unit on them against the spread.

Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.

You can read previous articles in this series here:  Against the Spread:  Week 1, Against the Spread:  Week 2, Against the Spread:  Week 3, Against the Spread:  Week 4, Against the Spread:  Week 5, Against the Spread:  Week 6, Against the Spread:  Week 7, Against the Spread:  Week 9, Against the Spread:  Week 10, Against the Spread:  Week 11, Against the Spread:  Week 12

Did you enjoy this article and want more Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content? Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership.