What is up DFF Army? It’s that time of the week for us to provide some insightful Week 11 suggestions. Although new information always causes us to reconsider things, we now have enough information to drive decision-making. As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups.
TERMS TO KNOW – SEE WEEK 2
WEEK 10 REVIEW
According to the Chinese Zodiac signs, 2021 is the year of the Ox. However, I am officially declaring 2021 as the NFL year of the dog!
Last week the underdog came out of the game victorious at a 64% rate. For the entire season, the underdogs are covering the spread at a 55% clip. Also in Week 10, the Under hit nine times (64%) compared to just three Overs (22%) and two games were a clean push (14%).
THE SUNDAY SLATE
Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.
HIGH-LEVEL TRENDS
Here is how each team is performing so far this season. The teams are sorted in decreasing order by how many points they have scored against the spread so far this season.
As you can see, a number that sticks out is that the Ravens and Jets have hit the Over on 67% of their games. There are very different reasons, might I add, on how they got there. On the other hand, the Panthers, Seahawks, Jaguars, Packers, and Broncos have hit the Over in just two of their respective games. This is something we may see bookmakers adjust to their opening points totals respectfully for each team.
Interestingly, certain cohorts of combined points totals set by the bookmakers have some hot and cold spots. Take a look at the below chart that shows the combined points totals expected by bookmakers and how frequently they hit the Over.
From this graphic, we can see that below 43 combined points have a slightly stronger chance of hitting with 50% Overs so far this year. Then we have a cold spot from 43-47 point lines. These two cohorts are hitting the Over at a combined rate of just 40%. As we make our way up we find a very hot spot from 47.5 to 49.5 combined points lines which hit at 56%. We run into another cold zone from 50-52 expected combined points, and then anything above 52.5 has come back down to earth and hits at a 47% clip. We will apply these trends to our Under/Over suggestions for Week 11. The 47.5 to 49.5 lines are the only ones to this point that we are suggesting to bet the Overs on blindly. The rest are dependent on the matchup and injuries.
With ten weeks in the books, we have enough data to start building out more intricate data models. In Week 6 I rolled out NFL Power Rankings based on Adjusted Wins. Adjusted wins count a team’s wins plus the number of wins that the teams they beat have. What this does is it gives more credence to a team that beats a four-win team compared to a zero-win team. In Week 7 we also made a minor change to how we calculate adjusted wins. It is now counted as 1/4th of the opponent wins adjusted, this is to not give too much credit to a team having better or worse than expected weeks. However, at this point, we are going to be using this metric to identify teams that Vegas may be overrating based on past success, rather than being predictive of future wins.
The surging Tennessee Titans come in first place this week. They are followed up by the Cardinals, Packers, Patriots, Cowboys, and Chiefs rounding out the top-six teams in the NFL. The Adjusted Wins model stayed strong despite the chaotic Week 10, with a correlation of an R-Squared value of 0.91! That means that it is nearly a perfect predictor for Moneyline bets.
Points Differential also has a strong correlation with wins given its 0.82 R-squared value. Points For is a bit less strong and has jumped the shark as it has an R-squared value of 0.83. Finally, Simple Rating is a combination of average margin of victory and strength of schedule, and it also has a strong correlation to wins with an R-squared value of 0.82.
We have developed a few new metrics to help us navigate through the data as well. First, see Pythagorean Wins, this is a metric that uses points differential to look at what teams are likely to regress season over season. We made a slight adjustment to the formula to look at how many games we expect a team to win in this new 17-game season. This metric has a very strong correlation to team wins with an R-Squared value of 0.81.
Also, we have included the number of offensive touchdown points per drive, removing field goals from the equation. Pressure Rate is the number of quarterback pressures a defense is getting, divided by the number of pass attempts the defense has faced. Missed Tackle Rate is the number of missed tackles a defense has allowed divided by the total number of plays defended.
NFL FUTURES BETTING MOVEMENT
As a bonus segment for Week 11 Against the Spread, we look at some of the recent movements among current odds-on favorites. As a reminder, NFL season-long awards are voted on by a panel of 50 sportswriters, and at this point that we have enough information to start reading through the tea leaves of certain media members.
MVP:
Josh Allen +350 to +200
Tom Brady +350 to +400
Dak Prescott +900 to +700
Matthew Stafford +750 to +900
Kyler Murray +500 to +1400
Justin Herbert +1600 to +2000
Patrick Mahomes +6600 to +2500
Offensive Rookie of the Year:
Ja’Marr Chase -145 to +110
Mac Jones +350 to +120
Najee Harris +900 to +1200
Justin Fields +4000 to +5000
Trevor Lawrence +3500 to +10000
Defensive Rookie of the Year:
Micah Parsons -125 to -160
Patrick Surtain +1100 to +900
Zaven Collins +3500 to +2000
Asante Samuel Jr. +1400 to +2000
Gregory Rousseau +1800 to +2500
Eric Stokes +3500 to +2500
Nick Bolton +10000 to +3000
Jamin Davis +1800 to +4000
Super Bowl Winner:
Green Bay Packers +1000 to +800
Arizona Cardinals +800 to +900
Los Angeles Rams +700 to +900
Dallas Cowboys +1200 to +1000
New England Patriots +3000 to +2500
Los Angeles Chargers +2000 to +3000
Cincinnati Bengals +6600 to +5000
New Orleans Saints +4000 to +8000
Seattle Seahawks +15000 to +10000
San Francisco 49ers +20000 to +10000
Other Notable Line Movements:
Offensive Player of the Year
Jonathan Taylor +1400 to +1100
Lamar Jackson +3000 to +1600
Kyler Murray +1400 to +1800
Davante Adams +2000 to +2500
Tom Brady +2500 to +4000
DeAndre Hopkins +2500 to +4000
Patrick Mahomes +5000 to +4000
Defensive Player of the Year:
Trevon Diggs +600 to +300
T.J. Watt +350 to +500
Jalen Ramsey +1600 to +2000
Darius Leonard +2000 to +2500
Comeback Player of the Year:
Joe Burrow +800 to +700
Carson Wentz +2000 to +1400
James Conner +4000 to +1400
Derwin James +2200 to +4000
Coach of the Year:
Mike Vrabel +900 to +450
Mike McCarthy +1400 to +500
Kliff Kingsbury +400 to +600
Bill Belichick +1400 to +1000
Matt Lafleur +1800 to +1200
Sean McVay +900 to +1400
Sean McDermott +1200 to +2500
Kevin Stefanski +2500 to +4000
MONEYLINE PICKS
Here is how the model using Adjusted Wins says that you should bet the Moneyline for Week 11. Moneyline parlays are a great way to boost your potential winnings on wagers. Use this chart to pick and choose which games you would like to include on your Moneyline parlay for Week 11.
HIGH CONFIDENCE PLAYS
These are the games that our model likes in projecting points differential in these games, and smoothing by our Adjusted Wins metric. These are the games with the highest level of confidence in our suggestions, but our suggestions will be based on current events along with what our model indicates. These will likely be marquee matchups, with heightened levels of information on the matchups. We want to focus the majority of our bankroll on these games.
BAL(-6) @ CHI 1:00 PM
The Ravens have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now, but Lamar Jackson is putting the team on his back and willing them to wins. The Bears are not expected to win more than one game this season unless we keep seeing Justin Fields’ rapid ascension. With Matt Nagy back coaching, there has been a downtick on that improvement. I expect John Harbaugh to keep his team in a position to get another win and continue fighting for the AFC Bye week, as does my model. I am taking the Ravens early and often in Chicago.
HOU(10) @ TEN 1:00 PM
We have the number one team in our power rankings versus the number 31 team. While I do not like laying ten points and going through the crucial number seven, we are sticking with the data on this one and betting the Titans. Jeffrey Simmons has been a true game-wrecker for the Titans and I expect him and the rest of this Titans’ defense to make easy work out of the lowly Texans.
GB(-1) @ MIN 1:00 PM
This Packers ‘defense is for real, having held Russell Wilson (injured), Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray each to under 21 points scored in the past three weeks. The Vikings are a statistically sound team this season, but this will be Aaron Rodgers‘ end-of-season push for the league MVP and fulfilling his “Last Dance” promise. Give me the Packers in a pick-em in November.
NO(2.5) @ PHI 1:00 PM
This one is plain and simple for me, the metrics favor the Saints in terms of Adjusted Wins and Pythagorean Wins. They are also getting points on the road in Philadelphia. Getting the points on the road makes me feel confident that they won’t blow a cover in the fourth quarter when the Eagles love to do the majority of their scoring.
Note: Alvin Kamara has already been ruled out for Sunday. Bet this game at your own risk.
SF(-6.5) @ JAX 1:00 PM
This is a big game for the “Shanahan’s record as a head coach” pundits. The Jaguars’ Pythagorean Wins being less than one indicates that they should not win another game this season. I expect an efficient game from Jimmy Garappolo against a team allowing a top-eighth 4.12 yards per defensive play and one that has missed the fifth most tackles on the season with 72. Because of these reasons, I’m comfortable with the 49ers. However, I will likely stay away if the line goes through seven.
DAL(2.5) @ KC 4:25 PM
The game of the week, nay, the game of the season, is this matchup in Kansas City. The Chiefs appeared to have gotten back into form on offense against the Raiders last week. This is a plus matchup for the Chiefs between Tyreek Hill and Trevon Diggs. However, the Cowboys are getting Michael Gallup back up to speed within an offense that is humming. Based on the metrics, I am comfortable betting that not only will the Cowboys cover, but they will upset the Chiefs in Kansas City. I will have to deal with the squeamish nature of betting against Mahomes, but the data backs it up.
Note: Amari Cooper has been ruled out for this game.
NYG (10.5) @ TB 8:20 PM
The Belichick versus Brady legacy debate is alive and well. The Buccaneers are coming off a bad loss to Washington and have not won since Week 7. I fully expect the Buccaneers with a feuding Arians and Brady, and with the outside threats getting healthy, to obliterate the Giants in a Primetime spot.
MIDDLE CONFIDENCE PLAYS
These are the games that we feel strongly about, but would not be surprised if the script flipped on us. These are the games that we may be working into teasers and parlays with bigger payouts if we hit.
IND(7.5) @ BUF 1:00 PM
The Bills are coming off a get-right game against the Jets, and now match up against a Colts defense that they should be able to move down the field on. The Colts also have a plus matchup with their running game, headlined by arguably the best back in the NFL. Going through the key number seven in a game that could go either way is not something that I like to do. If you do not want to enhance the lines, then I’d stick with the Colts and the points. If you want some action on the Bills that pays more than the $340 wager that returns only $100, then I’d advise to tease the Bills through the seven, and pair it with a high confidence play as the other leg.
MIA(-3.5) @ NYJ 1:00 PM
This should be a game for Tua Tagovailoa to start his reminder tour on why he was selected as a top-five pick in last year’s draft. The Jets’ front seven have trouble getting pressure on the quarterback being in the bottom 12 in pressure rate. The Jets allow the fourth-most yards per play on defense. So, I am confident in the Dolphins laying the points but concerned about a back-door cover (i.e. being up by 10 and allowing a garbage touchdown to end the game).
Note: Joe Flacco is trending towards starting for the Jets.
PIT(5.5) @ LAC 4:25 PM
These teams are nearly identical in terms of Adjusted Wins and Pythagorean Wins. Vegas agrees by taking down the Moneyline based on not being sure about the Steelers’ starting quarterback. I do not think that plays as big of a role as Vegas does, as the Chargers refuse to get Herbert into positive game scripts on early downs. I like the Steelers to make this a defensive struggle and come down to a field goal at the end.
Note: T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick are trending towards not playing. If they are inactive, this game moves into the low confidence cohort.
LOW CONFIDENCE PLAYS
These are games that we are staying away from or putting less than 5% of our bankroll on. These games we have low confidence in picking and will provide suggestions if you are looking to add them into a parlay for huge payouts.
DET (12.5) @ CLE 1:00 PM
The Lions are surging, coming off their first non-loss of the season. The Browns are coming off a brutal loss in the #freedOBJszn, and they may be second-guessing their decision to do so. The Browns Moneyline seems like a good wager, but with only a $100 return on a $600 bet, it doesn’t make sense to bet unless you are confident against the spread. In this matchup, I am not.
WFT(3) @ CAR 1:00 PM
These are two defenses that have elite talent but have been inconsistent all season. I think a lot of people may be duped by Newton’s efficient scoring last week and believe that Washington could win outright. I don’t feel strongly that will indeed play out, so this is a stay away.
CIN(-1) @ LV 1:00 PM
The Bengals are the preferred team this season with equal Adjusted Wins, but five projected remaining wins to the Raiders two. The Raiders have been quite an unpredictable team, and are coming off allowing Mahomes and the Chiefs to get back into the form of an elite offense. This one could reasonably go in either way.
ARI(-2.5) @ SEA 4:25 PM
Kyler Murray is working back into playing shape but is expected back this week. Russell Wilson is coming off the first time being shut out this year. Maybe I will get some good personal news from this game in the form of a Rondale Moore breakout. Otherwise, I am staying away and expecting the Cardinal’s season-long numbers to continue regressing to league average.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
You can read previous articles in this series here: Against the Spread: Week 1, Against the Spread: Week 2, Against the Spread: Week 3, Against the Spread: Week 4, Against the Spread: Week 5, Against the Spread: Week 6, Against the Spread: Week 7, Against the Spread: Week 9, Against the Spread: Week 10
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