What is up DFF Army? It’s that time of the week for us to provide some insightful Week 10 suggestions. Although new information always causes us to reconsider things, we now have enough information to drive decision-making. As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups.
TERMS TO KNOW – SEE WEEK 2
WEEK 9 REVIEW
Week 9 was a barn burner! We had an even split with seven games hitting the Over and seven games hitting the Under. Also, the underdog dominated the week and ruined everyone’s Moneyline parlays last week. The underdogs covered the spread in 10 games, whereas the favorites covered the spread in just four games.
THE SUNDAY SLATE
Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.
HIGH-LEVEL TRENDS
Here is how each team is performing so far this season. The teams are sorted in decreasing order by how many points they have scored against the spread so far this season.
As you can see, a number that sticks out is that the Falcons have managed to hit the Over in combined points scored in all but two of their games. On the other hand, the Packers, Panthers, Broncos, Bears, Jaguars, and Seahawks have hit the Over in just two of their respective games. This is something we may see bookmakers adjust to their opening points totals respectfully for each team.
Interestingly, certain cohorts of combined points totals set by the bookmakers have some hot and cold spots. Take a look at the below chart that shows the combined points totals expected by bookmakers and how frequently they hit the over.
From this graphic, we can see that below 43 combined points have a stronger chance of hitting with 53% Overs so far this year. Then we have a cold spot from 43-47 point lines. These two cohorts are hitting the over at a combined rate of just 40%. As we make our way up we find a very hot spot from 47.5 to 49.5 combined points lines which hit at 54%. We run into another cold zone from 50-52 expected combined points, and then anything above 52.5 has come back down to earth and hits at a 50% clip. We will apply these trends to our Under/Over suggestions for Week 10.
With nine weeks in the books, we have enough data to start building out more intricate data models. In Week 6 I rolled out NFL Power Rankings based on Adjusted Wins. Adjusted wins count a team’s wins plus the number of wins that the teams they beat have. What this does is it gives more credence to a team that beats a four-win team compared to a zero-win team. In Week 7 we also made a minor change to how we calculate adjusted wins. It is now counted as 1/4th of the opponent wins adjusted, this is to not give too much credit to a team having better or worse than expected weeks.
The surging Arizona Cardinals come in first place this week. They are followed up by the Titans, Packers, Ravens, Buccaneers, and Rams rounding out the top-six teams in the NFL. The outlier here is the Buffalo Bills, whose current victories we still expect to yield more adjusted wins down the line. The Bills have an insane 117 point differential on the season, which the Arizona Cardinals have finally surpassed at 122. The Adjusted Wins model stayed strong despite the chaotic Week 9, with a correlation of an R-Squared value of 0.89! That means that it is nearly a perfect predictor for Moneyline bets.
Points Differential also has a strong correlation with wins given its 0.83 R-squared value. Points For is a bit less strong and has jumped the shark, as it has an R-squared value of 0.81. Finally, Simple Rating is a combination of average margin of victory and strength of schedule, and it also has a strong correlation to wins with an R-squared value of 0.82.
We have developed a few new metrics to help us navigate through the data as well. First, see Pythagorean Wins. This is a metric that uses points differential to look at what teams are likely to regress season over season. We made a slight adjustment to the formula to look at how many games we expect a team to win in this new 17-game season. This metric has a very strong correlation to team wins with an R-Squared value of 0.79.
Also, we have included the number of offensive touchdown points per drive, removing field goals from the equation. Pressure Rate is the number of quarterback pressures a defense is getting, divided by the number of pass attempts the defense has faced. Missed Tackle Rate is the number of missed tackles a defense has allowed divided by the total number of plays defended.
MONEYLINE PICKS
Here is how the model using Adjusted Wins says that you should bet the Moneyline for Week 10. Moneyline parlays are a great way to boost your potential winnings on wagers. Use this chart to pick and choose which games you would like to include on your Moneyline parlay for Week 10.
HIGH CONFIDENCE PLAYS
These are the games that our model likes in projecting points differential in these games, and smoothing by our Adjusted Wins metric. These are the games with the highest level of confidence in our suggestions, but our suggestions will be based on current events along with what our model indicates. These will likely be marquee matchups, with heightened levels of information on the matchups. We want to focus the majority of our bankroll on these games.
CLE(2.5) @ NE 1:00 PM
The Patriots run a power-run offense with Mac Jones at quarterback. If they can get to the Browns’ second level of their defense, they are going to have a huge advantage as the Cleveland linebackers and defensive backs are all on the smaller size. Whichever team can develop an early lead should be able to sustain it. I like the Patriots in this game, and this is a nice spot to start the Patriots’ 240 lbs. wrecking ball in Rhamondre Stevenson.
NO(3) @ TEN 1:00 PM
The Titans are coming off a week where they went to Los Angeles and handed the Rams an embarrassing loss. I believe that Vegas is overreacting to this statement win by discounting a Saints team that has a playoff-caliber roster despite their quarterback. With Derrick Henry, Tannehill was able to play against stacked boxes and freeze linebackers with play-action. The Saints will not show that level of respect with Adrian Peterson in the backfield. Give me the dog that’s getting through the three to come away victorious.
PHI(2.5) @ DEN 4:25 PM
The Broncos posted a three-quarter shutout of the Dallas Cowboys before allowing Prescott to score in garbage time. The Eagles have been able to hang around in games and do most of their scoring in the fourth quarter. With an Under/Over set at 45.5 it is in the cold zone for betting Overs, but here is a spot that I believe will regress towards a 50% clip. I like the Over and if you want to juice it up, I’d parlay that with the Broncos Moneyline for a +320 payout.
SEA(3.5) @ GB 4:25 PM
Since 2009, when the Packers have faced the Seahawks the home team has always won. Green Bay is traveling to Seattle to play against Russell Wilson, who was cleared to return from his finger injury but is coming back early. Combine that with Aaron Rodgers likely being cleared to return from the COVID list and I’m betting on the better roster to pull through and cover the spread at home.
KC(-2.5) @ LV 8:20 PM
The Kansas City Chiefs head into Vegas laying points despite the Raiders being a better team by practically every metric. The Raiders are coming off a loss to the Giants last week, a team that the Chiefs beat two weeks ago. What it all comes down to is that the Raiders have the better roster and Mahomes’ magical plays have not been coming into fruition so far this season. I am going to take the points and the Raiders to cover while allowing the Chiefs to win by up to two points and still winning the wager.
LAR(-3.5) @ SF 8:20 PM
The Rams are coming off a disappointing week where the Titans put them into an early negative game script and took it the distance. With a more neutral game script, I believe the Rams will be in a better spot to succeed. I am going to mark last week down as an outlier and show the Rams the respect they deserve from other strong performances. This is a get-right game for Los Angeles and I am laying the points.
MIDDLE CONFIDENCE PLAYS
These are the games that we feel strongly about, but would not be surprised if the script flipped on us. These are the games that we may be working into teasers and parlays with bigger payouts if we hit.
ATL(9) @ DAL 1:00 PM
Dallas is coming off a big loss last week and is in a spot where they need a get-right game both offensively and defensively. The Falcons just beat the Saints, but I like the Cowboys to win this game. However, I’m not ready to lay nine points. Take the Moneyline and include it in a parlay to juice it up since the -430 line leaves little to gain as a standalone wager.
JAX(10) @ IND 1:00 PM
The Colts are coming off an impressive performance by Jonathan Taylor, who ran for over 250 yards in one game facing the Jaguars last season. I like the Colts to win, but I don’t trust Carson Wentz to play mistake-free ball that will allow the team to win by more than 10 points.
BUF(-12) @ NYJ 1:00 PM
The Bills are the better team, in every department. They are coming off a trap game loss to the Jaguars and are in a get-right spot against their division rival Jets. Again, 12 points are too much for me to stomach after scoring just six against the Jaguars.
TB(-10) @ WFT 1:00 PM
Rinse, rinse, repeat. We are staying away from these huge lines this week. I like Brady to lead the Buccaneers to victory but am not confident that they can pull away by double digits. Keep an eye on Antonio Brown’s status for this game if you are willing to lay the points.
LOW CONFIDENCE PLAYS
These are games that we are staying away from or putting less than 5% of our bankroll on. These games we have low confidence in picking and will provide suggestions if you are looking to add them into a parlay for huge payouts.
DET(8) @ PIT 1:00 PM
I do not trust the Steelers’ offense to produce consistently. I also do not trust the Lions in any facet of the game, so this is a stay-away game.
CAR(10.5) @ ARI 4:05 PM
The Cardinals are one of the best teams in football and the Panthers have proven to be worse than their record indicates. I am not betting the Cardinals with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins‘ status for the game still in question.
MIN(3) @ LAC 4:05 PM
Both of these teams have had games where they had elite production, but other games where they sputtered to get started. I am staying away from a fair and close line that could end up being a blowout in either direction.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
You can read previous articles in this series here: Against the Spread: Week 1, Against the Spread: Week 2, Against the Spread: Week 3, Against the Spread: Week 4, Against the Spread: Week 5, Against the Spread: Week 6, Against the Spread: Week 7, Against the Spread: Week 9
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