The year is 2021 and as Charles Darwin theorized, we must adapt or die. This is a theory that we are applying to our Against the Spread series for the 2021 season. Rather than picking the lines as we did in 2020 and prior, we are going to adapt the format to bring value not just to sports gamblers, but to all fantasy football players. In this series we will look at the Sunday slate, we are going to identify key games, and provide insights on why each bet could be the wise move.
As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups. Finally, we will provide a weekly underdog of the week as well as a potential parlay to win big.
TERMS TO KNOW
Many of these may not need to be defined. However, we want this series to be helpful to all sports gamblers. If you have experience with sports gambling and do not need these terms defined, feel free to jump ahead to the Sunday Slate section.
American Odds – American odds are displayed differently than the rest of the world. Moneyline odds are shown as + or – a number in the US. Outside of the US, the same odds might be presented with a decimal point or by a fraction. Example: Yankees +400 American odds would be 5.0 or 4/1. The bettor takes home the same amount of money if the wager wins.
Chalk – A term for the team that is the favorite in an event. This team or player is usually a big favorite. The chalk is the expected winner by a large margin.
Exposure – The amount of money a sportsbook potentially could lose for a specific event. For example, sportsbooks might have a lot of exposure (money at risk) on one team winning a championship versus another.
Hedge – Hedging is a strategy used by sports bettors to either reduce the risk of or to guarantee a profit from a wager.
Lock – Another way of saying that a team or player will be an easy winner. (Note: This isn’t always the case, no matter what a sports prognosticator or tout says.)
Middle/Middling – Middling a sports bet is playing different sides of the same game. This gives a bettor multiple chances to win wagers on the same game.
Moneyline – The Moneyline is a bet on either the favorite or underdog winning the matchup without a spread. So, it is a pick’em. The number shown is the amount relative to 100. For the favorite, it is defined as the amount needed on the wager to win $100. For the underdog, it is defined as the amount that a $100 bet will pay out.
Straight Up – When a team wins or loses an event. The point spread isn’t involved with the winner or loser.
Take the Points – When a bettor places a wager on an underdog they are taking the points offered by the sportsbook.
Take the Price – Similar to taking the points. This is when a bettor takes the price on a game offered by the sportsbook. The bet is typically wagering a Moneyline on the underdog.
Totals – Totals are the numbers that bettors will choose the over or under on points (or runs, goals, etc,) scored.
WEEK 1 REVIEW
What a week of football! We had great primetime matchups starting with the Thursday kickoff game between the Buccaneers and the Cowboys that came down to the final drive. This competitiveness throughout the week was consistent and was capped off with a dramatic overtime finish between the Ravens and the Raiders on Monday Night Football. Let’s take a deeper look into the details of these games, and at what data points could be sticky and applied to week two.
Week one was officially the week of the dog! The underdogs covered their spread on 10 of the 16 total games from week one. Spectacularly, Vegas had their total Under/Over at a total of 768 points across the league, and the Football Gods answered with scoring exactly 768 points across the league. Although that may lead you to believe that it may be closer, the under hit nine times compared to the seven games that hit the over. Based on this finding that Vegas and the NFL were walking in unison in regards to the Under/Over, we are going to refrain from suggesting any Under/Over plays this week until we have more data to support these claims.
With a lack of data going into week one, we had only narratives to go on. One of which was the reason why we picked the Dolphins as our Underdog of the Week.
The Miami Dolphins not only went into Foxboro as road underdogs getting 3.5 points, but they also came away with the win outright!
Unfortunately, though, our three-legged parlay did not pay out. We were looking good with 51 total points scored with 18 minutes remaining in the game. However, both offenses halted to a stop and there were no scores in the final 18 minutes. Good process, but bad results. Contrary to what many “analysts” say, results are more important than processes in gambling. Thus, we are $25 in the red. Let’s work our way out of this little hole with some solid suggestions for week two.
THE SUNDAY SLATE
Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.
The Colts, Dolphins, Jets, Eagles, Panthers, and Jaguars are all home underdogs this week. If you recall the seven home underdogs from week one, you should be aware that four of them covered the spread. All four of these teams — the Texans, Bengals, Saints, and Raiders — also won outright in week one. Home underdogs present an opportunity to steal some wagers, as line-setters overreact to week one results.
Vegas has doubled down and, including the Thursday Night matchup between NFC East rivals the Giants and Football Team, has week two set up to score 772.5 implied points. The NFC East showdown has already smashed the over, combining for 59 points compared to their 41 implied points. This means we must adjust Vegas’ implied points up to 790.5 total points. This is set up to be an even bigger week for fantasy owners.
BUF vs MIA
The Bills are coming off a home loss to the Steelers. This loss was based on the Steelers being the best performing defense in week one in the passing game. They allowed Josh Allen and the Bills only a 39% success rate. The Bills love going into 11 Personnel (three wide receivers, one running back, and one tight end) as they did so 52% of the time against the Steelers. The Steelers allowed only a 49% success rate, allowing 7.1 yards per pass play and 5.5 yards per rush. The Dolphin’s defense got roasted by the Patriots in week one. They allowed a 63% success rate from 11 personnel, driven by 9.3 yards per pass attempt and 2.2 yards per rush. I expect the Bills to attack the Dolphins with 11 personnel early and often.
I like the Bills to win this game. Take the chalk with the Bills this Sunday.
NE vs NYJ
Bill Belichick is 21-6 against rookie quarterbacks. However, on the road he is just 8-6 against rookie quarterbacks, accounting for all of the losses to rookie quarterbacked teams. The Patriots want to showcase the two tight ends that they broke the bank to acquire in free agency this past offseason. The Jets’ defense allowed 9.9 yards per pass attempt to the Carolina Panthers in 12 personnel and 3.3 yards per rush. The Jets allowed three explosive run plays in week one to go along with four explosive pass plays. I expect the Patriots to attack this defense methodically, lulling them to sleep and then McDaniels dialing up the shot-plays to put rookie Mac Jones in the position to succeed. Then the Patriots’ defense will get after Zach Wilson and take advantage of his inconsistent play as highlighted by his 33% off-target pass rate in week one.
I am again taking the road favorite in this matchup.
TB vs ATL
The Falcons’ new head coach, Arthur Smith, was expected to bring his heavy motion, heavy play action Tenneessee offense to Atlanta with him. But, in week one this was not the case. The Falcons only put up 13 points against the Cardinals’ defense, and now they need to score 20 points against the NFL’s best defense to cover the spread based on the 51.5 under/over. Matt Ryan used play-action on only 20% of his pass attempts. It may be hard to increase that number as the Buccaneers’ defense forced Prescott to throw in just 2.1 seconds. The Falcons’ offensive line is far inferior to the Cowboys, so I expect another rough showing for the Falcons’ offense.
The Buccaneers need to outscore the Falcons by 13 points to cover the spread. Though this is a big ask, I expect them to maintain their dominance. However, divisional matchups can be tricky so I’m taking the points. That said, I’m going to hedge this by parlaying the Buccaneers and the under to derisk this game.
UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK
The underdog of the week is the team that we believe the most likely to pull off an upset. For week one, the underdog of the week was the Miami Dolphins, who won! For week two I am taking the points in the Lions vs Packers game. I do not think that the Lions will upset the Packers, handing the reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers two straight losses. However, I do expect the Lions to make a game out of it. The Lions have a veteran quarterback in Jared Goff, who has experience leading comebacks. Rookie head coach Dan Campbell knows he doesn’t have the best roster in the NFL, nor is it reasonably close to being the best roster. However, he has all of the players buying in.
The Lions* are 2-2 over the last four seasons against the Packers in Green Bay. One of their losses was by a mere point, thus they are 3-1 against the spread against the Packers in Green Bay. The Lions are coming off a comeback attempt where they nearly covered against the 49ers. I expect the Lions to be a difficult team to predict in 2021. But, with many of the other underdogs in unappealing situations, I am comfortable with the Lions covering the spread this week.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
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*Footnote: The Lions are not a very good football team.
