The year is 2021 and as Charles Darwin theorized, we must adapt or die. This is a theory that we are applying to our Against the Spread series for the 2021 season. Rather than picking the lines as we did in 2020 and prior, we are going to adapt the format to bring value not just to sports gamblers, but to all fantasy football players. In this series we will look at the Sunday slate, we are going to identify key games, and provide insights on why each bet could be the wise move. 

As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups. 

TERMS TO KNOW – SEE WEEK 2

WEEK 4 REVIEW

THE SUNDAY SLATE

Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.

HIGH-LEVEL TRENDS

The Buffalo Bills have the best scoring differential in the NFL through Week 4, with a positive 90 points difference. Do not read too much into this because their last three opposing quarterbacks have been Davis Mills, Jacoby Brissett, and Taylor Heinicke. The Cardinals have the second-highest scoring differential in the NFL, with a positive 55 difference. At the other end of the spectrum, we have the Falcons, Texans, Dolphins, Jets, and Lions who all have poor scoring differentials. The scoring differential has a very strong correlation of an R-squared value of 0.79 compared to games won.

We also highlight the turnover differential, which has an R-squared value of 0.44 when compared to games won. This means that scoring differential is a stronger indicator for wins than turnovers. This is because turnovers are a very non-sticky statistic to predict since it takes into effect weather, play-calling, opponents, and many other inputs, whereas scoring is largely driven by the stickier offensive trends. However, we do expect teams that have a positive turnover differential to lead to more wins. The Saints, Colts, Chargers, and Cowboys are teams that we are betting will turn their forced turnovers into more wins going forward.

HIGH CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are the games with the highest level of confidence in our suggestions. These will likely be marquee matchups, with heightened levels of information on the matchups. We want to focus the majority of our bankroll on these games.

Packers (-3) at Bengals, 1:00 PM.
Take the Bengals and the points. Also, take over 50.5.

Saints (+2.5) at Football Team, 1:00 PM
Take the Saints and the points. The Saints do not want to give up two straight games heading into their bye. They then play against the Seahawks and Buccaneers. This is a must-win for the Saints.

Browns (+2) at Chargers, 4:05 PM
Take the under 47. The Chargers invite teams to run with lightboxes, the Browns are going to want to establish the run. Also, the Chargers do not attempt deep passes as much as the NFL average. All signs are pointing towards a defensive struggle game script. Take the pro-Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt player props available to you.

Bills (+3) at Chiefs, 8:20 PM
Take the Bills and the points. This is a game that will likely be decided by who has the ball last. This is the highest Under/Over at 56 points. I expect these two offensive firepowers to go way over 56, in a shootout. Also, remember Stefon Diggs watching the Chiefs celebrate their AFC Championship last year? Take every pro-Diggs player prop available to you.

MIDDLE CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are the games that we feel strongly about, but would not be surprised if the script flipped on us. These are the games that we may be working into teasers and parlays with bigger payouts if we hit.

Titans (-4.5) at Jaguars, 1:00 PM
Take the over 48.5. The Titans allowed the Jets to score 27 points last week. Trevor is a superior quarterback to Wilson, and the Jaguars are coming off a strong outing, with favorable rest, given they played on Thursday in Week 4.

Patriots (-9) at Texans, 1:00 PM
Take the Patriots Moneyline, or tease this game down below seven points. We do not expect Bill Belichick to lose three straight games with a big Cowboys matchup in Week 7.

Lions (+10) at Vikings, 1:00 PM
Take the under at 49 points, we do not expect this to be a high-scoring affair. Taking the points on the Lions is also appealing, but not something we can do with much confidence.

Broncos (+1) at Steelers, 1:00 PM
The Under/Over is 39.5 combined points. Bet the over, there has to be some offense in this game, right?

Cardinals (-4.5) at 49ers, 4:24 PM
Take the Cardinals and give the points. Also, take the under 49, Trey Lance will be making his first start. If he throws more than 10 times, I expect multiple turnovers. The Cardinals could get up early and kill the clock in the second half.

Cowboys (-7) at Giants, 4:25 PM
Games within the division can always be closer than we expect. The Cowboys are dominating in both the points differential and turnover differential battles. This Giants defense will not be able to contain Dak Prescott. Keep an eye on this one and be ready to pounce if it gets bet down under seven points being given up.

Colts (+7) at Ravens, 8:20 PM, Monday Night Football
The Colts are a team that is winning the turnover battle, but not turning them into points. Give me the points on the Colts, and hope that they can keep Lamar Jackson in check.

LOW CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are games that we are staying away from or putting less than 5% of our bankroll on. These games we have low confidence in picking and will provide suggestions if you are looking to add them into a parlay for huge payouts.

Jets (+2.5) at Falcons, 9:30 AM in London.
Teams react very differently with traveling to London, this one is a stay away completely.

Eagles (+3.5) at Panthers, 1:00 PM
Can Sam Darnold keep playing at this level? Is Jalen Hurts good, or just a good fantasy quarterback? Too many questions, not enough answers.

Dolphins (+10) at Buccaneers, 1:00 PM
Ten points is a lot to give up in this matchup between Brian Flores and Tom Brady. If anything bet the under at 43.5 points.

Bears (+5.5) at Raiders, 4:05
Does Bill Lazor get play-calling duties? Until this is confirmed, I’m staying away from betting Chicago.

Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article. 

You can read previous articles in this series here:  Against the Spread:  Week 1, Against the Spread:  Week 2, Against the Spread:  Week 3, Against the Spread:  Week 4

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