The year is 2021 and as Charles Darwin theorized, we must adapt or die. This is a theory that we are applying to our Against the Spread series for the 2021 season. Rather than picking the lines as we did in 2020 and prior, we are going to adapt the format to bring value not just to sports gamblers, but to all fantasy football players. In this series we will look at the Sunday slate, we are going to identify key games, and provide insights on why each bet could be the wise move.
As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups.
TERMS TO KNOW – SEE WEEK 2
WEEK 3 REVIEW
The game of the week between the Buccaneers and the underdog Rams was very exciting, but Stafford and the Rams were able to pull away in the second and third quarters. To close the first half, the Rams drove 75-yards in three minutes for a score, leaving Brady just 51 seconds to close the half. Aaron Donald recorded his first career sack of Tom Brady, pushing the Buccaneers out of field goal range. The Rams deferred at the opening kickoff and ended up getting the double-tap scores to close the first half and open the second half, which proved to be the difference.
The most exciting game of the week was when the Chargers traveled to Kansas City for a matchup between two of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. Justin Herbert came out of the gates strong, building an early 14-0 lead in the first half. The comeback that was expected from Patrick Mahomes, was delivered in the third quarter with consecutive passing scores to take a 17-14 lead. The fourth quarter of this game may have been the most exciting 15 minutes of football this season.
Herbert drove the Chargers downfield for a game-tying field goal but gave Mahomes two minutes left on the clock. At that point, every fan at home said to themselves, “They gave Mahomes too much time.” Mahomes threw an interception on a no-look pass. After that, several questionable coaching calls, including a converted fourth and nine, led to a touchdown but missed extra point with 32 seconds remaining. Again, every fan at home thought to themselves, “They gave Mahomes too much time.” Mahomes, surprisingly, did not deliver the classic comeback and the Chargers escaped with the upset victory.
After two great quarterbacks failed to deliver their patented comebacks, we headed into Sunday Night Football with a matchup between Conference contenders the Packers, and the 49ers. The Packers dominated the first half by going up 17-0. The 49ers made it a game by closing the half with a Trey Lance touchdown rush. The 49ers continued their comeback efforts and took a 28-27 lead with just 43-seconds remaining in the game. Finally, “They left him too much time” came to fruition. Rodgers hit Devante Adams for two deep passes and got the team in place for a game-winning field goal.
Here is an overview of all of the Week 3 action and their Vegas implications.
THE SUNDAY SLATE
Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.
We had an exciting Thursday Night Football game between the last two first-overall selections in Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow. The rookie made a few too many rookie mistakes and Burrow led the Bengals for a game-winning field goal as time was expiring. However, there were promising signs from both raw quarterbacks as to their future outlook.
THE 1:00 PM SLATE
There have been 54 games in the 1:00 PM Sunday afternoon slate in the first three weeks. Nearly 70% of those games have resulted in the Under hitting. Teams playing in the early slate have scored 85.5 points less than their implied point total.
Although it is still early in the season we expect this to regress to the mean, implying the early slate should hit the Over more often going forward. For now, though, we are taking this trend and littering our bet slips with 1:00 PM Unders.
THE ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS
Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones have all been named their team’s starter since the start of the season. Davis Mills and Justin Fields have started in spot starts due to injury. Altogether in their combined 10 starts, the rookies have a 1-9 record, and the only victory recorded was against another rookie quarterback in the Patriots’ defeat of the Jets in Week 2. That Patriot team was the only game with a rookie starting quarterback that surpassed their implied points totals. On average, teams led by rookie quarterbacks are averaging 7.5 points less than their implied point total in these games.
While we expect these young rookies to progress throughout their rookie campaigns, as we saw Lawrence demonstrate during TNF, these struggles will continue. Therefore, we are betting against all rookie quarterbacks starting in Week 4, whether that be against the spread or taking the Moneyline.
WEEK 4 PICKS
Falcons (+1.5) vs Washington U/O 47.5
Football Team -1.5 and the Under
Bears (-3) vs. Lions U/O 41.5
Lions (-3) and the Under
Jets (+7) vs. Titans U/O 44.5
Titans (-7) and the Under
*The Titans will be without A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.
Vikings (+2.5) vs. Browns U/O 51.5
Browns (-2.5) and the Under
Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Colts U/O 42.5
Dolphins (-1.5) and the Under
*The Colts will be without All-Pro G Quentin Nelson.
Cowboys (-4.5) vs. Panthers U/O 51.5
Cowboys (-4.5) and the Under
*The Panthers will be without Christian McCaffrey.
Saints (-7) vs. Giants U/O 41.5
Saints Moneyline (-355) and the Under
Eagles (+7) vs. Chiefs U/O54.5
Chiefs (-7) and the Over
Bills (-17.5) vs. Texans U/O 47
Texans (+17.5) and the Over
*Sprinkle that Texans +900 Moneyline in some parlays to unlock huge potential returns.
Rams (-4) vs. Cardinals U/O 54.5
Rams (-4) and the Over
49ers (-3) vs. Seahawks U/O 51.5
Seahawks (+3) and the Under
Broncos (+1) vs. Ravens U/O 44.5
Ravens (-1) and the Over
Packers (-6.5) vs. Steelers U/O 45.5
Packers (-6.5) and the Over
Buccaneers (-7) vs. Patriots U/O 49.5
Buccaneers (-7)
Raiders (+3) vs. Chargers U/O 51.5
Chargers (-3) and the Over
If you are planning on playing DFS for this week, I would strongly consider loading up on players that are playing in the late window.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
You can read previous articles in this series here: Against the Spread: Week 1, Against the Spread: Week 2, Against the Spread: Week 3
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