With five weeks in the books, we are starting to see some positive trends. Although new information always causes us to reconsider things, we now have enough information to drive decision-making. As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups.

TERMS TO KNOW – SEE WEEK 2

WEEK 5 REVIEW

Week 5 was a fun week! We had 10 games hit the Over compared to just six games hitting the Under. Also, favorites covered the spread in nine games, the underdog covered the spread in six games, and the Bengals and Packers game was a push.

THE SUNDAY SLATE

Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.

HIGH-LEVEL TRENDS

With five weeks in the books, we have enough data to start building out more intricate data models. This week I will be rolling out NFL Power Rankings based on Adjusted Win. Adjusted wins count a team’s wins plus the number of wins that the teams they beat have. What this does is it gives more credence to a team that beats a four-win team compared to a zero-win team.

The undefeated Arizona Cardinals come in first place for this week. Tied in second are the Cowboys, Chargers, and Rams. The outlier here is the Buffalo Bills, whose current victories we expect to yield more adjusted wins down the line. The Bills have an insane 108 point differential on the season, by far the best in the NFL. I am happy to announce that of every metric on this graph, my Adjusted Wins has the strongest correlation to total wins with an R-squared value of 0.84.

Points Differential also has a strong correlation with wins given its 0.83 R-squared value. Points For is a bit less strong, because it only takes one side of the field in play. Still, it has an R-squared value of 0.73. Finally, Simple Rating is a combination of average margin of victory and strength of schedule, and it also has a strong correlation to wins with an R-squared value of 0.79.

HIGH CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are the games with the highest level of confidence in our suggestions. These will likely be marquee matchups, with heightened levels of information on the matchups. We want to focus the majority of our bankroll on these games.

 CIN (-3.5) @ DET 1:00 PM

The Bengals are playing very well right now, but the Lions keep getting hit with game-losing field goals when playing at home. This means that those games were lost by three or fewer points. However, the Lions’ average margin of defeat on the season is eight points. I like this trending upward, Cincinnati Bengals team to cover the spread.

KC (-7) @ WFT

The Chiefs are currently sitting on a losing record at 2-3. The Football Team is averaging a margin of defeat of just over six points. These two defenses are allowing an average of over 30 points allowed per game. Kansas City blows out the Football Team and garbage time scoring gets you over the 54.5 points needed. Take the Chiefs laying the points and the over here.

ARI (3) @ CLE 4:05 PM

The second-best game of the week is this matchup between the undefeated Cardinals and the three-win Browns. The Browns will be without Nick Chubb which means we want to litter out bet slips with pro-Kareem Hunt prop bets. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Kyler Murray is dealing with a shoulder injury that has him in limited practices all week. Combine that with swirling winds in Cleveland and the Cardinals passing attack could falter here. I like the Browns to defeat the Cardinals and cover the spread.

MIDDLE CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are the games that we feel strongly about, but would not be surprised if the script flipped on us. These are the games that we may be working into teasers and parlays with bigger payouts if we hit.

GB (-6) @ CHI 1:00 PM

We have not yet seen Justin Fields in a game where he has had to throw more than 20 times in a game in the NFL. There is a good chance that happens as his home dogs take on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in Soldier Field. Both teams interestingly have negative average margins of victory despite having winning records. Meaning, when they lose, they lose badly. I like the combined score being over 44 points. 

HOU (10) @ IND 1:00 PM

The Texans played the Patriots to a close game last week, losing on a late field goal but covering the spread. What the Colts quarterback struggles with most is dealing with pressure. The Texans have not blitzed on third-down with David Culley as the coach. After an emotional loss to the Ravens, I expect the Colts to have a get-right game against the Texans, whose only win came against a winless opponent. Take the Colts to cover the spread and throw it in some parlays or tease it down to giving up six points in a straight wager.

LAR (-10) @ NYG 1:00 PM

The Giants will be without Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay in this game. This leaves Jalen Ramsey to cover rookie receiver Kadarius Toney. However, Ramsey has not been shadowing receivers this season. Daniel Jones is coming off a concussion from the week before, and will almost certainly be seeing ghosts with Donald and Ramsey playing defense. The Rams should not need to score too many points to get the win here, so take a combined score of under 48.5.

MIN (-2.5) @ CAR 1:00 PM

We still don’t know if the stellar play of Sam Darnold is sustainable, but it’s trending towards that not being the case. However, the Panther’s defense has shown that they are sustainable, by allowing the third-fewest points scored against them. Mike Zimmer loves a good old-fashioned defensive struggle football game. Less than 45.5 combined points scored in this game feels like a safe play as Minnesota also allows only 21 points scored per game.

LAC (2.5) @ BAL 1:00 PM

Unfortunately, the best game of the week will be during the 1:00 PM window, so not everyone will be able to watch it live. Both teams have shown an ability to eliminate large deficits. Significantly the Ravens, who have been a team in the past that has not been able to accomplish this feat. I like the tied-for-second-place Chargers to win, and a lot of points to be scored. Take the points and the over despite the fact that it’s at a precarious 51 combined points.

DAL (-3) @ NE 4:25 PM

The Dallas Cowboys have an explosive offense and are taking on a Patriots defense that just allowed rookie quarterback Davis Mills to throw for over 300 yards and three TDs. So you would think that we love this game to go over 50.5 combined points. We do not! I expect that the Houston game was a trap game and the Patriots were planning for Dallas. I expect the Patriots to utilize 21 personnel and to try to keep Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense sidelined. The Patriots are allowing only 18 points per game defensively, so we are sticking with the under. Also, Trevon Diggs, who has six interceptions in five games, is nearly guaranteed another one against a rookie Mac Jones, I’d be looking for that player prop wherever I can.

BUF (-5.5) @ TEN 8:20 PM

No team has scored more points than the Buffalo Bills this season, and no team has allowed fewer points against them than the Buffalo Bills. Riding high off their emotions after defeating the Chiefs last week could turn Monday Night’s game against the Titans into a trap game. These offenses are averaging a combined 60.8 points scored per game. I like that enough to take the over combined points total of 54.

LOW CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are games that we are staying away from or putting less than 5% of our bankroll on. These games we have low confidence in picking and will provide suggestions if you are looking to add them into a parlay for huge payouts.

MIA (-3) @JAX 9:30 AM

Another early-morning London game. Rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 all-time playing in London. Tua Tagovialoa is cleared to play, but will he be fully healthy or will the Dolphins need to lean on Brissett again? Too many questions to make a solid wager.

LV (4) @ DEN 4:25 PM

We do not know how this Raiders team will react to the firing, I mean resigning, of Jon Gruden. The uncertainty present in that locker room has me very confused about what we could see against a Broncos team who we are still trying to figure out.

SEA (5) @ PIT 8:20 PM

Russell Wilson and Chris Carson will not be making the trip to Pittsburgh, meaning Geno Smith will start his first game since 2017. We don’t know if we’ll see Shane Waldren’s offense clicking smoothly with Smith running it, or whether the Steelers’ Week 5 offensive surge is sustainable. This is a classic stay-away game.

Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article. 

You can read previous articles in this series here:  Against the Spread:  Week 1, Against the Spread:  Week 2, Against the Spread:  Week 3, Against the Spread:  Week 4, Against the Spread:  Week 5

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