What is up DFF Army? It’s that time of the week for us to provide some insightful Week 12 suggestions. Although new information always causes us to reconsider things, we now have enough information to drive decision-making. As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups.

TERMS TO KNOW – SEE WEEK 2

WEEK 11 REVIEW

According to the Chinese Zodiac signs, 2021 is the year of the Ox. However, I am officially declaring 2021 as the NFL year of the dog! 

Last week the underdog came out of the game victorious at a 57% rate. For the entire season, the underdogs are covering the spread at a 55% clip. Also in Week 11, the Under hit nine times (64%) compared to just five Overs (35%).

THE SUNDAY SLATE

Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.

HIGH-LEVEL TRENDS

Here is how each team is performing so far this season. The teams are sorted in decreasing order by how many points they have scored against the spread so far this season.

The Colts have hit the Over on 64% of their games, while the Ravens, Rams and Jets have also hit the Over 60% of the time. On the other hand, the Broncos, Jaguars, and Seahawks have hit the Over in just two of their respective games. This is something we may see bookmakers adjust to their opening points totals respectfully for each team.

Interestingly, certain cohorts of combined points totals set by the bookmakers have some hot and cold spots. Take a look at the below chart that shows the combined points totals expected by bookmakers and how frequently they hit the Over.

From this graphic, we can see that below 43 combined points have a slightly stronger chance of hitting, with 52% Overs so far this year. Then we have a cold spot from 43-47 point lines. These two cohorts are hitting the Over at a combined rate of just 39%. As we make our way up, we find a very hot spot from 47.5 to 49.5 combined points lines which hit at 55%. We run into another cold zone from 50-52 expected combined points, and then anything above 52.5 has come back down to earth and hits at a 44% clip. We will apply these trends to our Under/Over suggestions for Week 12. The 47.5 to 49.5 lines are the only ones to this point that we are suggesting to bet the Overs on blindly. The rest are dependent on the matchup and injuries

With ten weeks in the books, we have enough data to start building out more intricate data models. In Week 6 I rolled out NFL Power Rankings based on Adjusted Wins. Adjusted wins count a team’s wins plus the number of wins that the teams they beat have. What this does is it gives more credence to a team that beats a four-win team compared to a zero-win team. In Week 7 we also made a minor change to how we calculate adjusted wins. It is now counted as 1/4th of the opponent wins adjusted, this is to not give too much credit to a team having better or worse than expected weeks. However, at this point, we are going to be using this metric to identify teams that Vegas may be overrating based on past success, rather than being predictive of future wins.

The surging Arizona Cardinals come in first place this week. They are followed up by the Titans, Packers, Chiefs, Patriots, and Ravens rounding out the top-six teams in the NFL. The Adjusted Wins model stayed strong despite the chaotic Week 11, with a correlation of an R-Squared value of 0.91! That means that it is nearly a perfect predictor for Moneyline bets.

Points Differential also has a strong correlation with wins given its 0.83 R-squared value. Points For is a bit less strong and has jumped the shark as it has an R-squared value of 0.85. 

We have developed a few new metrics to help us navigate through the data as well. First, see Pythagorean Wins, this is a metric that uses points differential to look at what teams are likely to regress season over season. We made a slight adjustment to the formula to look at how many games we expect a team to win in this new 17-game season. This metric has a very strong correlation to team wins with an R-Squared value of 0.81.

MONEYLINE PICKS

Here is how the model using Adjusted Wins says that you should bet the Moneyline for Week 12. Moneyline parlays are a great way to boost your potential winnings on wagers. Use this chart to pick and choose which games you would like to include on your Moneyline parlay for Week 12.

HIGH CONFIDENCE PLAYS

Note that these recommendations are being written on Thursday, due to holiday travel, and may not be updated to include injuries and inactives. Be sure to check players’ statuses on your own before making any bets!

These are the games that our model likes in projecting points differential in these games, and smoothing by our Adjusted Wins metric. These are the games with the highest level of confidence in our suggestions, but our suggestions will be based on current events along with what our model indicates. These will likely be marquee matchups, with heightened levels of information on the matchups. We want to focus the majority of our bankroll on these games.

TB(-3) @ IND

This may be a preview for who we will see as the MVP finalists. Tom Brady is the G.O.A.T. but the Colts’ workhorse, Jonathan Taylor, is playing absurdly well recently. Jonathan Taylor Thomas played the original Simba, and just like Simba, Taylor can’t wait to be king. The injury status of the run-wrecking Vita Vea will decipher which side of the three points I will land on this Sunday.

Vita Vea plays and I’m sticking with the Buccaneers, if he is out or severely limited then I’m rolling with the Colts.

CAR(-2) @ MIA

The Dolphins are trending towards being one of the worst teams in the NFL and the Pythagorean Wins show them only being able to get one more win on the season. Cam Newton should have his feet under him after his first start last week. I like the Panthers to cover the spread in this matchup.

PHI(-3.5) @ NYG

The Philadelphia Eagles’ run blocking has been elite as of late, and Jalen Hurts is one of the top rushing quarterbacks in the league. The Eagles are getting healthy in the backfield, and the Giants simply don’t have the firepower on offense to stay with Philadelphia. Lay the points or tease this through three points.

MIDDLE CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are the games that we feel strongly about, but would not be surprised if the script flipped on us. These are the games that we may be working into teasers and parlays with bigger payouts if we hit.

TEN(7) @ NE

The Patriots are rolling right now, coming off five consecutive wins. Mike Vrabel however, is 2-0 in games against his former head coach. Ryan Tannehill has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league without the Titans’ battering ram Derrick Henry being active. The Patriots’ defense is playing at an elite level. All signs point towards a Patriot victory, but can you risk the backdoor cover?

PIT(4) @ CIN

The Steelers stayed with the Chargers’ high-powered offense, losing 41-37 last week. The Bengals are in good form coming off a decisive victory against the Raiders. As a road dog, Mike Tomlin is 40-20-2 against the spread. The metrics favor the Bengals, but it’s always hard to bet against great coaches. Mike Tomlin is a great coach so, despite the metrics, I will take the points.

NYJ(2.5) @ HOU

Tyrod Taylor is actually 2-2 as the Texans starting quarterback, and the defense is causing turnovers. The Jets are a team that is having turnover issues. It’s hard to feel good about a matchup between two teams that both have two wins, but I feel rather confident about the Texans at home.

LAC(-2.5) @ DEN

The Chargers continue to do no favors for the ultra-talented Justin Herbert by means of early-down play calling. However, the Broncos are coming off a bye and should be getting healthy. I like this game to go over 48 combined points.

MIN(3) @ SF

Justin Jefferson is a man among boys as a wide receiver, coming off a 169-yard and two touchdown game beating the Packers. Kirk Cousins seems to be allergic to games with a national audience, so he is safe in this matchup. I like the Vikings to continue to win and have their winning percentage regress to the amount they have led games throughout this season.

CLE(3.5) @ BAL

Lamar Jackson is an unstoppable force, and Baker Mayfield continues to play hurt. The 32nd pick in the 2018 draft will defeat the first pick, despite the lack of production that this Ravens’ supporting cast has supplied.

LOW CONFIDENCE PLAYS

These are games that we are staying away from or putting less than 5% of our bankroll on. These games we have low confidence in picking and will provide suggestions if you are looking to add them into a parlay for huge payouts.

ATL(-2) @ JAX

Both teams are just playing poorly and both may be incentivized to posture for draft positions at this point in the season. 

LAR(-1) @ GB

This is the game of the week. Rodgers is a big question mark on how effective he will be with his injured toe. The Packers could flop and get Rodgers some rest in a blowout game. Or he could pull a classic Aaron Rodgers on us and make a winning drive with little time on the clock.

SEA(0) @ WFT

A pick-em on Monday Night Football between Russell Wilson and Taylor Heinicke, so exciting! I am staying away from betting on or against Wilson until he has his “I’m Back” game.

Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.

You can read previous articles in this series here:  Against the Spread:  Week 1, Against the Spread:  Week 2, Against the Spread:  Week 3, Against the Spread:  Week 4, Against the Spread:  Week 5, Against the Spread:  Week 6, Against the Spread:  Week 7, Against the Spread:  Week 9, Against the Spread:  Week 10, Against the Spread:  Week 11

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