The year is 2021 and as Charles Darwin theorized, we must adapt or die. This is a theory that we are applying to our Against the Spread series for the 2021 season. Rather than picking the lines as we did in 2020 and prior, we are going to adapt the format to bring value not just to sports gamblers, but to all fantasy football players. In this series we will look at the Sunday slate, we are going to identify key games, and provide insights on why each bet could be the wise move.
As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups. Finally, we will provide a weekly underdog of the week as well as a potential parlay to win big.
TERMS TO KNOW – SEE WEEK 2
WEEK 2 REVIEW
What a week of football! It started hot with an offensive explosion between the Cardinals and Vikings highlighted by a breakout game for second-round rookie Rondale Moore. We also had a thrilling overtime game in which the Titans took down the Seahawks. Derek Carr kept rolling as he leads the NFL in passing yards, defeating the Steelers in Pittsburgh while they bracketed Waller all game. The week was capped off with a big upset by the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. Let’s take a deeper look into the details of these games, and what data points could be sticky and applied to Week 3.
Week 2 also favored the dog, half of the underdogs covered their spread. The underdogs covered their spread on 10 of the 16 total games from Week 1. Vegas has been performing spectacularly with their big picture Under/Over’s this season. In Week 1 they hit the nail exactly on the head with exactly 768 points scored, just as they projected. In Week 2 they projected 772.5 points across the league, and they were off by just over a field goal. Including Week 1, Vegas is overestimating the point total by a mere 0.29% or 4.5 points on the season. For Week 3, Vegas is taking a slightly more conservative approach by projecting 753 points scored.
With a lack of data going into week 1, we had only narratives to go on. As more data presented itself to us we were more capable of analyzing trends and making more sound picks. The Bills and the Patriots both won and covered in the early slate. And we were exactly on point with our analysis on how they would dominate. The Dolphins quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa injured his ribs and was sidelined for the game. Josh Allen and the Bills sat in 11 personnel and tore up the Miami defense, although there were some rough points. Bill Belichick stole rookie quarterback Zach Wilson’s lunch money with four interceptions and no touchdowns allowed. As a side note, Wilson is on pace for 42.5 interceptions across 17 games.
When we hit on our picks we get a very happy dog!
Unfortunately, we got a bit too cute with our underdog pick banking on some Lions garbage time to cover the spread against the Packers. This is a friendly reminder that the great quarterbacks come back strong when they get punched in the mouth as Aaron Rodgers did in Week 1 against the Saints. We will keep this knowledge in our back pocket while making our picks to come.
THE SUNDAY SLATE
Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.
The Jaguars, Lions, Rams, and Vikings are all home underdogs this week. If you recall the seven home underdogs from Week 1, you should be aware that four of them covered the spread. All four of these teams, between the Texans, Bengals, Saints, and Raiders also all won outright in week one. In Week 2 there were seven home underdogs, this week three of them covered their spread, the Panthers and the Ravens won outright. Home underdogs present an opportunity to steal some wagers as line-setters overreact to week-to-week results.
We had a barn burner in the Week 3 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Panthers and the Texans. Third-round rookie quarterback Davis Mills only started in 11 games in college and it showed on the field. The big news from the game was the hamstring injury to Christian McCaffrey who looks like he will miss extended time. There were only a total of 33 points scored in the game between the two teams, and the Panthers covered easily. This Thursday night followed the chalk. Do we have an upset looming on a short week for Jaguars and Bengals next week in a matchup between the two latest first overall draft selections? We shall see.
BAL vs DET
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are coming off a big upset against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, and head into a 1:00 PM game in Detroit. The Lions are now 2-0 against the spread on the season but have faced strong competition in the 49ers and Rams. In neutral game scripts*, the Ravens are passing the ball only 42% of the time, the seventh-lowest clip in the league. However, on those throws, they are averaging 7.8 yards per attempt. When they run the ball they are still averaging 6 yards per rush. I expect them to be in a lot of 21 personnel (formations like gun and pistol) as they have had two backs on the field in 67% of their neutral plays. Detroit has only played in 12 snaps with two backs on the field this season and has allowed 17 yards per pass attempt and 6.4 yards per rush in these situations within neutral play scripts. I expect the Ravens to get an early lead in this game with efficient play calling, and to never take their foot off the gas. Give me both the Ravens giving up 7.5 points as well as the Moneyline to hedge against the Lions covering.
KC vs LAC
We said heading into this that we always expect the great quarterbacks to fire back after getting punched in the mouth, and that is exactly what happened to Patrick Mahomes last week. Mahomes has only lost eight starts in his career, and in six of those, he followed them up the next week with victories. Kansas City has spent 84% of their offensive snaps in neutral game scripts in 11 or 12 personnel and averages 10.3 and 11.3 yards per pass attempt respectively. The Chargers have seen these personnel groupings 89% of their defensive neutral game snaps and allow 11 and 7 yards per pass attempt respectively. I expect Mahomes to right the ship, and lead the Chiefs to victory unless Joey Bosa can bounce back from his 0 sack and 0 hit game against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. I am confident in the Chiefs, but Justin Herbert is special and might lead the Chargers back into the game late. Give me the Chiefs Moneyline.
TB vs LAR
How can we not talk about the game of the week as the reigning champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on Sean McVay and his rebuilt offense? This is a revenge game for Aaron Donald who lost to Brady in the 2019 Super Bowl. The best defensive player in the NLF is yet to sack the future HOF quarterback, I expect that to change this Sunday. Antonio Brown will be inactive for the Buccaneers on the covid-list, and the Rams are down to their third-string running back Sony Michel. This game is expected to be a shootout with an Under/Over of 55.5 points. According to the Football Outsiders, the Rams and the Buccaneers have the second and third best defensive DVOA’s so far this season. This is an interesting game to parlay, especially since everyone will be watching it in the late window. I like having one of those legs of the parlay, betting the under because of these great defenses.
UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK
Well, if you caught it in the footnotes last week, I hedged my underdog of the week pick with a note that the Lions are not a very good football team. This proved to be the difference as they failed to fight back into the game once the rain started falling. So I must preface this week with the fact that I don’t have a high confidence level in the underdogs this week. Last week, my favorite player Rondale Moore experienced his NFL breakout game and I want the good news to keep rolling in so get ready for a homer pick. With Jarvis Landry on IR and Odell Beckham Jr. working his way back from his ACL tear, I believe that my favorite rookie quarterback can take advantage of his first start of the season.
Enter Justin Fields, the eleventh pick in the NFL Draft and arguably the most impressive rookie quarterback from preseason action. With Fields’ dual-threat ability, a resurging Allen Robinson, and a strong defense led by Khalil Mack, I believe if the Bears start hot, and they can stay in front of the Browns rushing attack, they could come out of this game victorious. I will not be placing a wager on this, but it’s what I will be rooting for at home Sunday afternoon.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
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*Footnote: Neutral game scripts are defined as first and second down plays in the first half of games with a score margin of ten or less.
