The year is 2021 and as Charles Darwin theorized, we must adapt or die. This is a theory that we are applying to our Against the Spread series for the 2021 season. Rather than picking the lines as we did in 2020 and prior, we are going to adapt the format to bring value not just to sports gamblers, but to all fantasy football players. In this series we will look at the Sunday slate, we are going to identify key games, and provide insights on why each bet could be the wise move.
As we discover trends through the season we will be able to make more determined analyses on specific picks. To go along with matchups and trends, we will look at key fantasy players who have the most beneficial or detrimental matchups. Finally, we will provide a weekly underdog of the week as well as a potential parlay to win big.
TERMS TO KNOW
Many of these may not need to be defined. However, we want this series to be helpful to all sports gamblers. If you have experience with sports gambling and do not need these terms defined, feel free to jump ahead to the Sunday Slate section.
American Odds – American odds are displayed differently than the rest of the world. Moneyline odds are shown as + or – a number in the US. Outside of the US, the same odds might be presented with a decimal point or by a fraction. Example: Yankees +400 American odds would be 5.0 or 4/1. The bettor takes home the same amount of money if the wager wins.
Chalk – A term for the team that is the favorite in an event. This team or player is usually a big favorite. The chalk is the expected winner by a large margin.
Exposure – The amount of money a sportsbook potentially could lose for a specific event. For example, sportsbooks might have a lot of exposure (money at risk) on one team winning a championship versus another.
Hedge – Hedging is a strategy used by sports bettors to either reduce the risk of or to guarantee a profit from a wager.
Lock – Another way of saying that a team or player will be an easy winner. (Note: This isn’t always the case, no matter what a sports prognosticator or tout says.)
Middle/Middling – Middling a sports bet is playing different sides of the same game. This gives a bettor multiple chances to win wagers on the same game.
Moneyline – The Moneyline is a bet on either the favorite or underdog winning the matchup without a spread. So, it is a pick’em. The number shown is the amount relative to 100. For the favorite, it is defined as the amount needed on the wager to win $100. For the underdog, it is defined as the amount that a $100 bet will pay out.
Straight Up – When a team wins or loses an event. The point spread isn’t involved with the winner or loser.
Take the Points – When a bettor places a wager on an underdog they are taking the points offered by the sportsbook.
Take the Price – Similar to taking the points. This is when a bettor takes the price on a game offered by the sportsbook. The bet is typically wagering a Moneyline on the underdog.
Totals – Totals are the numbers that bettors will choose the over or under on points (or runs, goals, etc,) scored.
THE SUNDAY SLATE
Without further ado, here is the slate for this weekend’s matchups.
As you can see, we have seven home underdogs: the Texans, Lions, Colts, Bengals, Giants, Saints, and Raiders. In theory, this makes these teams very friendly wagers if you can find reasons to support your upset beliefs.
The Chiefs, Bills, Titans, Ravens, and Rams are slated to be the highest-scoring teams based on their implied points. Implied points are derived from the Under/Over and the spread. If a game has an Under/Over of 50, and the spread is 4, the underdog would be implied to score 23 points and the favorite is implied to score 27 points. The previously listed teams are most likely to maintain leads in the game, making their running backs have beneficial matchups.
Chiefs vs Browns
Since becoming the starting quarterback in 2018, Patrick Mahomes has won every season opener by double digits (10, 14, and 14). Mahomes’ lone regular-season game against the Browns was a 37-21 victory in 2018, in which he threw for 375 yards on just 32 attempts. I expect Mahomes to start strong coming off the Super Bowl defeat.
Mayfield on the other hand has never won an opening game as the starting quarterback. Averaging only 274 yards passing in his opening games, the Brown’s route to victory is maintaining an early lead and relying on their elite backfield to control the clock and keep Mahomes and the potent Chiefs offense on the sideline.
If you believe in the Chiefs in this matchup, it could be wise to bet the over and hope for a shootout. Conversely, if you believe in the Browns it could be savvy to bet the under in a ground and pound style of game.
Bills vs Steelers
Josh Allen exploded last season in one of the greatest year-over-year improvements we have ever seen from a quarterback and, based on this, the Bills are 6.5 point favorites against the Steelers. Stefon Diggs missed three weeks of practice with a knee injury, but Sean McDermott has been steadfast in his belief that he will be a full-go to start the season. The Bills played against five playoff teams in 2020, including the Steelers. In those five games, the Bills surpassed their implied points total of 29 on only two of those games.
Ben Roethlisberger is reportedly healthy from his shoulder injury of 2020 and he’s going to need to be if the Steelers make the playoffs in 2021. With a concerning hold-in from star defensive end T.J. Watt, the Steelers have a lot of question marks surrounding them. The Steelers have the second most difficult schedule in the NFL for 2021 and I expect them to lose, but cover versus the Bills.
Titans vs Cardinals
Tennessee added star wide receiver Julio Jones to their young stud A.J. Brown, making it one of the most dangerous receiving cores in the NFL. They also have the uber-efficient Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, and the toughest running back to tackle in the league in Derrick Henry. However, despite the potent offense, head coach Mike Vrabel has historically not held a strong defense, despite being a former defensive coordinator. The Titan’s roadmap to winning this matchup is maintaining an early lead and feeding Derrick Henry.
Kyler Murray has seemed determined to make the jump in his excerpts from this offseason, but playing in the most difficult division in the NFL is standing in his way. The Cardinals offense is going to rely on a healthy Murray for success in 2021, and playing against the NFC West rivals they are going to need to win out of division games. I see this game being an exciting shootout regardless of who gets up early. However, I have a low confidence level in the Cardinals, who have to travel across the country for a 1:00 PM matchup.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Lions, Giants, Bears, Jets, and Dolphins are all implied to score the fewest points this week. Players on these teams could be easier to sit in fantasy due to their lack of potential scoring opportunities.
UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK
The underdog of the week is the team that we believe the most likely to pull off an upset. For week one, the underdog of the week is the Miami Dolphins who are getting three points against the Patriots in Foxboro. This is expected to be the second-lowest scoring game of the weekend. Rookie quarterbacks starting in their week one debut have seen success sparingly. Since 2008, a rookie quarterback starting in week one has failed to win at a 61.3% rate. Mac Jones has been named the Patriot’s starting quarterback and the Patriots cut last season’s starter, Cam Newton. Newton ironically lost his debut game for the Panthers and will pass the torch to Jones.
Over the last three seasons, the Dolphins and Patriots have split their season matchups. With a rookie starting quarterback and the face of the defensive unit being inactive, all signs are pointing to an upset. Here are the 13 rookie quarterbacks to start their season opener since 2008.
PARLAY OF THE WEEK
A parlay is when you choose multiple wagers combined into one bet. It pays out only if all the individual wagers would pay out. If one wager misses then the entire bet is lost. This week we are parlaying three legs and gambling just $25. The first leg of the parlay is taking the Over in the Titans and Cardinals game. We need the two teams to score a combined 53 points to hit. The second leg of the parlay is taking the aforementioned Dolphins with three points over the Patriots. The final leg of the parlay is taking the Ravens and giving up 4.5 points against the Raiders. With the $25 wager, we will get paid out $165 which is a 6.6 multiplier.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
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