Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of overreaction.
POST-DRAFT MARKET REPORT
The 2022 NFL Draft was chock full of chaos. NFL GMs had draft picks changing hands faster than MegaMan’s fists. Now that teams are planning for the upcoming season, we, as dynasty managers, are doing the same.
A total of 28 wide receivers were selected during the 2022 NFL Draft, with several more signing contracts as priority-free agents. Of those 28 receivers, six were drafted in the first round. Although the 2022 class is perceived as weaker than in previous years, several rookie selections have spiked upward trends in market consensus.
Eye-popping evaluations transpired in reaction to landing spots and draft capital. With dynasty rookie drafts occurring all over the community, we now have a larger sample of how the market has leveled out. In this episode of Dynasty Market Sweep, we will be viewing some of the notable market impacts of the rookie wide receiver class.
NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES
Drake London (Atlanta Falcons)
Round 1 Pick 8
DFF Draft Profile: Drake London
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – WR 22
After NFL Draft – WR 12
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 68
After NFL Draft – 34
Drake London’s jaw-dropping evaluation as a top-12 wide receiver has dynasty managers reconsidering the depreciating value of the 2022 draft class. London’s value in dynasty circles was mirrored by the NFL’s infatuation with the former USC standout. Selected as a top-10 pick by the Falcons, London’s projected future success has risen to astonishing heights, causing his acquisition cost to follow suit. His physical profile as a prototypical alpha receiver combined with his draft capital and early declaration status puts London in some fine company of former NFL stars, including Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Green, and Calvin Johnson.
London will surely need time to develop in the Falcons’ meandering offense, especially while catching passes from the wildly inconsistent delivery of Marcus Mariota. He is the leader on a barren depth chart of mediocre receiver talent with an open path to massive volume in his first season. Although London’s profile indicates a safe bet for sustained NFL success, the return on investment post-draft is nearly too good to pass up. London’s mid-third round startup cost has him in a value adjacent tier to Joe Mixon, and Jalen Hurts while being valued higher than Trey Lance, Austin Ekeler, and Tyreek Hill. Other value-adjacent receivers include Bengals stud Tee Higgins as well as elite veterans Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams. Receiving any of those players in a 1-for-1 trade can increase your immediate production without sacrificing substantial value.
London’s rookie draft ADP sits directly behind Breece Hall at 1.02 but with more variance, leaving opportunities for managers to profit. I have no issues with investing your rookie draft capital into London as the first wide receiver off the board but would advise pursuing all avenues of inquiry in hopes of cashing in big on his rising stock.
Treylon Burks (Tennessee Titans)
Round 1 Pick 18
DFF Draft Profile: Treylon Burks
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – WR 16
After NFL Draft – WR 15
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 46
After NFL Draft – 40
Treylon Burks’ dynasty value went through peaks and valleys leading up to the 2022 NFL Draft but has remained stable throughout the process. Burks was unable to meet the hype of his athletic prowess at the NFL Combine, causing his value to drop as low as WR25 following testing. A blockbuster draft-night trade involving the Titans, Eagles, and superstar receiver A.J. Brown has washed away any previous concerns surrounding Burks depreciating stock.
Paul Patterson (@fantasyfreezer) referred to Burks as an immediate Winner of the A.J. Brown Trade, citing the Titans, minimal depth at the wideout position. Dynasty managers are mimicking the Titans’ confidence in the 16th overall pick, valuing him ahead of all other first-round receivers, save for London. Burks has an open vacancy for tremendous year one production. However, his existing value offers exciting possibilities to eliminate the risk of investing in a player who has yet to play in an NFL game. Much like his aforementioned draft mate, Burks currently sits in an enticing tier of value adjacent players such as Justin Fields, D.J Moore, Chris Godwin, Dalvin Cook, and Diontae Johnson. His post-draft dynasty evaluation provides another example of how rookie draft picks accrue value and patience leads to profit.
Garrett Wilson (New York Jets)
Round 1 Pick 10
DFF Draft Profile: Garrett Wilson
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – WR 19
After NFL Draft – WR 15
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 52
After NFL Draft – 43
Garrett Wilson rounds out the three-headed rookie WR1 value tier, with London and Burks topping the chart. All three receivers have nearly identical market evaluations. However, Wilson’s value remained stagnant throughout the draft process, with a minimal boost following his top-ten landing spot with the Jets. Managers were not as kind to Wilson’s landing spot as the two names that topped our report. Wilson does not have the same path to targets as Burks or London. He will have to compete for touches with Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and newly-drafted stud running back Breece Hall.
Wilson has the skills and intangibles to produce in the NFL but joins a wide array of developing and largely unproven talent on the Jets, namely second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. If the Jets’ young quarterback takes a productive leap in his sophomore season, we could see both Wilson’s value flourish well above their current ranking. Still, I would continue pursuing multiple opportunities to capitalize on rising rookie stocks.
Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions)
Round 1 Pick 12
DFF Draft Profile: Jameson Williams
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – WR 29
After NFL Draft – WR 19
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 88
After NFL Draft – 50
Jameson Williams heads the second value tier of rookie wide receivers. There is a notable gap between Williams and his top-ranked peers. Selected as the fourth wide receiver of the first round by the Lions, Williams enters a situation where he will start as the primary outside receiving threat. Unfortunately, the burner from ‘Bama might not be ready to begin his NFL development. Williams is coming off an ACL tear and will need to beat his recovery timeline to contribute in the first few weeks of the 2022 season.
Williams’ injury and landing spot on a struggling offense helmed by Jared Goff is the primary reason for his separation in value. The Lions are in a rebuilding stage (as per usual) and will wait at least one more season before drafting their franchise quarterback. Williams’ value is poised to see a significant jump in his second year but is unlikely to maintain until we see on-field results.
Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints)
Round 1 Pick 11
DFF Draft Profile: Chris Olave
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – WR 33
After NFL Draft – WR 24
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 93
After NFL Draft – 68
Chris Olave was the third of six wide receivers selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Olave was the second of three consecutive former Ohio State receivers to be picked, joined by Garrett Wilson (Pick 10) and Jameson Williams (Pick 12). Despite only being separated by one pick in either direction, Olave is valued below both of his former teammates. Peculiar considering Olave beat out Williams for the starting role at Ohio State, forcing a transfer to Alabama.
Olave represents one of the best first-round values in rookie drafts with an ECR/ADP of 1.07 across all platforms. The Saints moved a mountain of draft capital to jump from Pick 16 to Pick 11. Their confidence in Olave as a potential number one option is apparent.
His first year on the field will be shared with Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. The presence of these two veterans should not turn managers off of drafting Olave. Thomas has not played in over a year and is coming off of multiple ankle surgeries. There is reasonable concern surrounding Thomas’ future with the franchise, especially considering the moves the Saints made to acquire one of the top receiving talents in the draft. Landry has injury concerns as well, missing five games in 2021.
Olave is in a position to become the Saints target hog of the future, following in the footsteps of his new teammate and fellow Ohio State alum, Thomas.
Skyy Moore (Kansas City Chiefs)
Round 2 Pick 54
DFF Draft Profile: Skyy Moore
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – WR 67
After NFL Draft – WR 29
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 174
After NFL Draft – 80
The goal of the Dynasty Market Sweep series is to question market consensus and respond with answers to how and why changes occur. Skyy Moore lucks into what should be viewed as the absolute best landing spot for any rookie wide receiver. Selected by the Chiefs in the second round, Moore is now tied to the otherworldly throwing talents of Patrick Mahomes. Moore will be thrust into a prominent role on a pass-heavy offense. There is a real possibility that the rookie becomes Mahomes favorite vertical threat now that Tyreek Hill is taking his talents to South Beach.
The upside is obvious. The downside is less documented. Moore played at a small-school program for the University of Central Michigan. Although his production numbers were excellent in his final collegiate season, Moore was out-produced as a sophomore by the mediocre play of Dee Eskridge. Furthermore, there has only been one other early declare G5 receiver to maintain relevance in the NFL: Davante Adams. Adams took several years to break out as an all-pro talent, despite catching passes from Aaron Rodgers to begin his career.
The dynasty community is projecting confidence into Moore that the Chiefs did not have themselves. Twelve wide receivers were selected before Skyy Moore in the 2022 NFL draft. In fact, the Chiefs traded down to select Moore with several other wide receiver-needy teams in front of them. Tyquan Thornton, Alec Pierce, and George Pickens were chosen before the Chiefs were next up on the clock after trading back. Perhaps we should taper our confidence as well.
Managers need to proceed with caution when acquiring Moore at his inflated cost. His upside as a highly effective deep threat in the Chiefs offense is undeniable. However, he currently sits in a value adjacent tier with Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman, and Jerry Jeudy. Consider forfeiting the risk of an unproven asset by acquiring one of the above-mentioned names with similar upside.
Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers)
Round 2 Pick 34
DFF Draft Profile: Christian Watson
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – WR 72
After NFL Draft – WR 38
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 185
After NFL Draft – 97
Christian Watson was selected as the seventh wide receiver off the board in the 2022 NFL draft. The Packers had an all-pro void to fill after Davante Adams signed with the Raiders this offseason. Although the Packers did not manage to secure one of the top-tier rookie receivers, they did manage to snag Watson with their first pick of Round 2. Watson will be placed into a dream scenario wherein he has the opportunity to lead the Packers in targets in his first year.
Much like Skyy Moore, Watson’s value spike has more to do with landing spot than an elite profile. Moore boasts the incredible final season analytic profile, whereas Watson possesses world-class athleticism. At 6’4” and 204lbs, Watson’s relative athletic score ranks 12 out of a possible 2785 receivers. Watson runs a 4.36s 40-yard dash with speed and burst scores above the 95th percentile.
My sentiments towards Watson’s dynasty market value are similar to Moore’s. There is an undeniable upside when projecting both rookies as the number one outside receiving threat on their respective teams. However, both players come with an array of red flags and risks. This is the type of draft class where you should capitalize on the height of rookie value rather than searching for diamonds in the rough.
SIGNOFF
Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all-in, the deck is stacked in your favor.
“We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Join the #DFFArmy to keep in step with exclusive fantasy football content by clicking HERE. #AlwaysBeBuilding
Check out the previous articles in the Post-Draft Market Report Series: Rookie QB Market Report, Rookie TE Market Report, Rookie RB Market Report.
