Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (Preseason Edition). Training Camp battles are ramping up. Teams are preparing for their Preseason matchups. And injuries are opening up opportunities for players looking to earn significant roles and/or roster spots. The time to be the most active in Dynasty Leagues is NOW. We are going to hear “hype” reports from beat reporters. And we are going to hear some reports that make us feel a little uneasy about our player investments. Us Dynasty Managers must constantly research ways to bolster our rosters. In this continuation series, we will dive deep into one player whose dynasty stock is increasing and one player whose dynasty stock is decreasing from each team in every division. Today, we will break down the NFC North. 

BEARS

STOCK UP – COLE KMET

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2020	CHI	16	44	28	243	8.7	2
2021	CHI	17	93	60	612	10.2	0

Kmet was featured in the “stock up” section earlier this offseason in the Chicago Bears breakdown piece. He’s slated to serve as Justin Fields’ second-best pass-catching option behind Darnell Mooney in Luke Getsy’s new offense. Not only is he primed for a breakout season, but injuries to the wide receiver room are starting to create more opportunities for him in camp. N’Keal Harry may have suffered a significant ankle injury, and both Byron Pringle and Velus Jones Jr. are on the sidelines with minor injuries for now. Although the three of them could be on the field for Week 1, the chemistry developed between them and Fields may not come in time. Kmet already has that chemistry with his signal-caller, and the depth behind him at the tight end position isn’t worrisome for dynasty managers (Ryan Griffin and James O’Shaughnessy). 

What’s even more promising for Kmet this season, and going forward, are the comments made by the coaching staff. In a recent interview, Getsy came out and said that “he’s on the brink, right now, of taking his game to another level.” The breakout is evident, and the stats were there last season. The problem was that he never found the endzone during his second season. Hypothetically, if he would’ve hauled in, let’s say, five touchdown receptions, he would’ve finished the season as the TE14. But instead, he finished as the TE20 in PPR leagues while watching Jimmy Graham haul in three of his 14 receptions for touchdowns. Looking long-term, Kmet is contracted until 2024, whereas Pringle, Harry, Griffin, O’Shaughnessy, Tajae Sharpe, David Moore, Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Dazz Newsome all have expiring contracts after this season. 

Kmet’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 78 receptions, 721 yards, 5 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – N’KEAL HARRY

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2019	NE	7	24	12	105	8.8	2
2020	NE	14	57	33	309	9.4	2
2021	NE	12	22	12	184	15.3	0

Just a few weeks ago, the Bears traded a 2024 7th-round pick for Harry. He was brought in to compete with Mooney, Pringle, St. Brown, Jones Jr., Sharpe, Moore, Pettis, and Newsome for a roster spot. And his dynasty value immediately shot up because of the lack of great talent outside of Mooney at the receiver position. But of course, Harry has already suffered a setback just a couple of weeks into training camp. Chicago Bears beat reporter, Brad Biggs, tweeted out that Harry had suffered an ankle injury and that he was unable to put any weight on it. Recent reports since then have indicated that he suffered a high ankle sprain. Harry’s dynasty value has more than likely plummeted once again, considering that he’s likely out at least six weeks and that he only has one year left on his rookie contract. 

Let’s say the injury isn’t as serious as we all think and he finds his way on the field for Week 1. He still has a tall hill to climb after a disappointing first three seasons in the league. There is a lot of buzz surrounding both Jones Jr. and St. Brown early in camp. And both Mooney and Kmet seem like locks to serve significant roles this season. Let’s not forget how productive David Montgomery is in the receiving game out of the backfield as well (121 receptions in three seasons). This Bears organization is in full rebuild mode. Any kind of setback at this point could diminish a player’s value down the road. This ankle injury, or even the lack of time on the field during training camp, could set Harry back from the rest of the pack. What little dynasty value he still has left could go to waste sooner rather than later. 

Harry’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 21 receptions, 221 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns

LIONS

STOCK UP – AMON-RA ST. BROWN

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2021	DET	17	119	90	912	10.1	5

If you weren’t involved in a late fantasy playoff push last season, you may have missed the dominance of St. Brown at the end of the 2021 regular season. In PPR leagues, only Cooper Kupp outscored him between Weeks 13-18. During that same span, he averaged 11.2 targets, 8.5 receptions, 93.3 receiving yards, and hauled in a touchdown in five of those six games. He averaged 25.2 PPR points per game in those six games as well. The problem is that D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, and Quintez Cephus missed extended time during that timeline of success. Now entering the 2022 regular season, St. Brown will have to battle with Swift, Hockenson, Cephus, Jameson Williams, D.J. Chark, Kalif Raymond, and Josh Reynolds. Sure, the receiver room is more fulfilled now, but St. Brown is still expected to be the lead guy amongst the receivers. 

Jared Goff will remain the starting signal-caller for this team for at least this season. He showed that he formed a special connection with Hockenson early in the season and St. Brown late in the season. It will be interesting to see who comes out as the lead guy, but for now, you can expect those two to have some separation from the rest of the group. Highly coveted rookie receiver, Williams, is still not 100 percent after tearing his ACL in the College National Championship game. He’s expected to miss some more time. Chark comes in on a one-year deal, and he’s trying to make his way back on the field after breaking his ankle in Week 3 of last year’s season with Jacksonville. So in the meantime, St. Brown is filling in as the team’s clear WR1.

Recent camp reports have indicated that he’s shining early on and wowing the team in new ways. For those of you who have St. Brown shares, I wouldn’t necessarily be looking to move him any time soon. Especially considering that Hockenson, Chark, Reynolds, Raymond, Cephus, and Swift all have contracts that either expire after this season or the next. Whereas St. Brown is under contract until 2025 for now. 

St. Brown’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 95 receptions, 1,073 yards, 6 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – JAMAAL WILLIAMS

Year	Team	Games Played	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	TDs	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2017	GB	16	153	556	3.6	4	25	262	10.5	2
2018	GB	16	121	464	3.8	3	27	210	7.8	0
2019	GB	14	107	460	4.3	1	39	253	6.5	5
2020	GB	14	119	505	4.2	2	31	236	7.6	1
2021	DET	13	153	601	3.9	3	26	157	6.0	0

If you aren’t a star running back in the NFL and you’re entering your sixth season as a pro, you’re likely going to see a decline in production. Let’s face it, Williams has had a really consistent and solid career for a backup running back to this point. He came into Detroit looking to split the workload with D’Andre Swift, and his numbers indicate that he sort of did. But in reality, he was obviously a step slower than his teammate, and he filled in nicely when Swift was out with injuries. Entering the 2022 regular season, Williams is expected to take a step back in production while also battling Justin Jackson and Craig Reynolds for snaps. Although he should earn that RB2 spot on the team for this season, his future is a bit murky. 

Williams only has one year left on his contract, and by the looks of where this franchise is heading, it would be surprising to see him back in Detroit in 2023. Swift is clearly the “now” and “future” for this team at running back. Both him and Jermar Jefferson are under contract next season. Now for those of you going all out for a championship this year, Williams could be a key rostered player if you are handcuffing him to Swift. If not, the time to trade him away is now. He surely won’t have much value once he becomes a free agent after this season. And those of you who roster Williams without Swift, go out and find the manager who has Swift and get a return of value. Running backs don’t last long in the NFL. There’s not a whole lot of reason to hold onto a 27-year-old backup who’s coming off his worst receiving season with an upcoming expiring contract. 

Williams’ 2022 Prediction

Rushing: 101 carries, 414 yards, 3 touchdowns 

Receiving: 21 receptions, 151 yards, 1 touchdown

PACKERS

STOCK UP –  ROMEO DOUBS 

Year	School	Class	Games Played	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2018	Nevada	FR	13	43	562	13.1	2
2019	Nevada	SO	10	44	649	14.8	4
2020	Nevada	JR	9	58	1,002	17.3	9
2021	Nevada	SR	11	80	1,109	13.9	11

Back in late April, Doubs was drafted two rounds later than Christian Watson was. He was an under-the-radar pass-catcher out of Nevada University who was deemed an average route-runner who struggled against press coverage. A few months ago, he was projected to see less production than Watson, Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, and possibly Amari Rodgers. Now that training camp has started, he’s in the mix to become one of the premier guys behind Lazard at the receiver position. Watson has already seen his share of setbacks, as he finds himself on the PUP list while recovering from minor knee surgery. This alone has allowed Doubs to spark a connection with Aaron Rodgers early in camp. Now, I’m not saying that Doubs will be the better long-term receiver on this team over Watson, but both are heading in opposite directions as of right now. And for that reason, Doubs’ dynasty stock is increasing.

Rookie receivers have never really gotten off to a great start to their career with Rodgers. Since 2008, Green Bay has drafted 16 receivers (outside of this year).

Amongst those 16 receivers, only one topped 50 receptions in a season within his first two years. It wasn’t Jordy Nelson. It was Davante Adams. It was…Randall Cobb. That alone should tell you that Rodgers doesn’t like to depend on rookies or even second-year pros. But this year is a bit different. Both Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are now out of town. And Robert Tonyan is recovering from a torn ACL. Someone needs to step up on this team. With Watson recovering from a knee injury of his own, Doubs is getting that time with Rodgers. He’s certainly got an edge now, and that may pay off long-term.  

Doubs’ 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 37 receptions, 492 yards, 2 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – CHRISTIAN WATSON 

Year	School	Class	Games Played	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2018	NDakSt	FR	14	9	165	18.3	0
2019	NDakSt	SO	16	34	732	21.5	6
2020	NDakSt	JR	10	19	442	23.3	1
2021	NDakSt	SR	12	43	800	18.6	7

It was mentioned above that Watson has already suffered a setback in his young NFL career. He was drafted to have a chance at becoming this team’s WR1. But landing on the PUP list and having knee surgery during the pivotal times of the offseason will set him back from the rest of the receiving group. There isn’t a sure timeline for him to return to the field yet, and the team isn’t worried about the injury, but any time lost (especially as a rookie) from hauling in passes from Rodgers in practice could diminish a player’s long-term value. While he watches on the sidelines, Lazard is pleading his case as the team’s WR1. Watkins, Cobb, (Amari) Rodgers, Doubs, and Samori Toure all are battling for their chances at carving out significant roles in this offense as well.

This isn’t to say that Watson won’t be the team’s WR1 or WR2 at some point in his career. This is to note that his dynasty stock is decreasing, and he may have a tough time producing this season, as other receivers are developing chemistry with their signal-caller. If you are approaching your rookie drafts, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to draft Doubs over Watson. Play the ADP game. You can wait later to draft the receiver in Green bay that has the current edge over the other. If you’ve already completed your rookie drafts and have Watson on your team, this isn’t a message telling you to trade or drop him. This is simply a warning, a cause for concern, explaining to you that Doubs has the edge, and he may never let that edge go if he develops a special bond with Rodgers early on.  

Watson’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 25 receptions, 355 yards, 3 touchdowns 

VIKINGS

STOCK UP – KIRK COUSINS

Year	Team	Games Played	Completion Percentage	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rushing Yards	TDs
2012	WAS	3	68.8%	466	4	3	22	0
2013	WAS	5	52.3%	854	4	7	14	0
2014	WAS	6	61.8%	1,710	10	9	20	0
2015	WAS	16	69.8%	4,166	29	11	48	5
2016	WAS	16	67.0%	4,917	25	12	96	4
2017	WAS	16	64.3%	4,093	27	13	179	4
2018	MIN	16	70.1%	4,298	30	10	123	1
2019	MIN	15	69.1%	3,603	26	6	63	1
2020	MIN	16	67.6%	4,265	35	13	156	1
2021	MIN	16	66.3%	4,221	33	7	115	1

There is this common speculation that Kirk Cousins can’t be a QB1 this season and going forward. There’s also this thought by many that he hasn’t been a solid fantasy quarterback in a little while. He’s actually finished as the overall QB11 two years in a row now, and he’s finished as the QB13 or better all but one time since 2015. What do you think is going to happen now that Mike Zimmer is no longer the head coach? He’s been replaced by Kevin O’Connell, the offensive coordinator for the Rams for the last two seasons, and Sean McVay’s former right-hand man. This offense is going to be more pass-centric. Expect more passing yards, more passing touchdowns, and probably more interceptions thrown. But in terms of fantasy, this is music to our ears. 

We would be analyzing Cousins differently if he wasn’t throwing to Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, and Irv Smith Jr. each and every Sunday. He’s also led by a stellar rushing attack that features one of the best “do it all” backs in the league, Dalvin Cook. The Vikings’ front office has taken notice of this shift to a more pass-happy offense. That’s why they elected to draft Jalen Nailor in this year’s draft, as he joins second-year pro Ihmir Smith-Marsette in what looks to be a deep and loaded receiver room. Cousins is contracted until 2024 for now, while four of his top-five receivers are under contract until at least 2025. If you can manage to add Cousins to a dynasty roster next to a young star (Herbert, Mahomes, Allen, etc.), you will have a positional advantage for years to come. 

Cousins’ 2022 Prediction

Passing: 4,776 yards, 34 touchdowns, 9 interceptions

Rushing: 126 yards, 1 touchdown

STOCK DOWN – K.J. OSBORN

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2020	MIN	9	0	0	0	0.0	0
2021	MIN	17	82	50	655	13.1	7

As I mentioned above, the Vikings’ wide receiver room is a bit loaded these days. Think about it. Jefferson, Thielen, Osborn, Nailor, Smith-Marsete, Olabisi Johnson, Albert Wilson, etc. Jefferson is the star of the bunch, and when healthy, Thielen is highly serviceable as well. Both Wilson and Johnson have been in the league for a while now. And Smith-Marsete showed flashes last season when given opportunities. The team saw something in Nailor, as they used a sixth-round draft pick on him in this year’s draft. That leaves Osborn, who went from seeing 0 targets during his rookie season to hauling in 50 for 655 and seven touchdowns in his second. Most of his high-production games came when Thielen was injured. Yes, he will be fantasy relevant this season, but those of you who have Osborn shares may want to be a bit careful. 

As of right now, Osborn is projected as the team’s WR3 behind Jefferson and Thielen. Recent reports have mentioned that he is dominating at camp thus far. So why is his dynasty stock decreasing? For starters, when you look at the games both Thielen and Jefferson played in (13 last season), Osborn averaged three receptions and 37 receiving yards per game, while hauling in three touchdowns. During those games, he averaged 7.3 PPR points per game. And yet, many dynasty managers are high on Osborn right now. Here’s another reason why you shouldn’t be as high on him. Jefferson, Thielen, Smith-Marsete, and Nailor are all under contract longer than him. You also have to keep in mind that Cook has finished in the top five in team receptions pretty much every year of his career. Oh and one more reason, Big Irv should be healthy and on the field this season. He was expected to become the team’s third-best pass-catcher last year before suffering a season-ending injury. There are too many mouths to feed in this offense. Osborn is a great WR3 for NFL teams, but his dynasty value is diminishing because of how much talent this team has right now. 

Osborn’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 44 receptions, 546 yards, 4 touchdowns

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