Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of overreaction.
VETERAN MARKET EVALUATION
Veteran values transition through a cyclical cycle every offseason. The psychological desperation to replace the old with something new and shiny is inevitable. Dynasty strategists can’t help but fawn over incoming rookies. Even in a weakened 2022 draft class, we saw incredible market shifts propelling rookies up the rankings. The causality of the heightened rookie evaluations leading into a new season is the decreased value of veteran counterparts.
If you are interested in an extensive dynasty market report on rookie evaluations and the attachment to assumed value, check out the Dynasty Market Sweep: Rookie Series.
Throughout this offseason series, we have stated that rookies are continuously valued at their potential ceiling rather than a median range of outcomes, creating a lopsided shift in the market. Managers are enamored with the unknown. The risk may be more substantial, but the mere idea of a considerable payoff is a scintillating gamble for many.
Running backs are rapidly recycled on dynasty rosters due to a shortened age window of production. In the last ten seasons, 71% of running backs that finished in the RB1 tier in PPR scoring were aged 26 and under, per PFF. This drop-off in production is what managers often refer to as “the age cliff.” Knowing when the majority of players at a position begin to decline allows managers to sell at an increased value before the wheels fall off.
Unfortunately, in 2022, the return on investment for a veteran running back value is at an all-time low. The market is adjusting early in preparation for the influx of multiple running backs in the 2023 NFL Draft who could enter the league with top-12 positional value. This under-evaluation of established producers has caused managers to jump ship on some of the league’s top-rated workhorses and PPG fantasy producers.
In this episode of the Dynasty Market Sweep, we will evaluate established running backs that have received noticeable decreases in value due to offseason market shifts. In the first part of our Veteran RB Evaluation, we looked at three running backs with a top-24 position ranking representing a high risk-to-reward ratio. Today, we highlight a few players that are being viewed below their potential production outside of the top-24 running backs, offering a much cheaper investment alternative.
NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES
James Conner RB – Arizona Cardinals
Position Rank: RB 26
Overall Rank: 101
Value Adjacent Assets:
Brandon Aiyuk WR – San Francisco 49ers
Jahan Dotson WR – Washington Commanders
Pat Freiermuth TE – Pittsburgh Steelers
Dalton Schultz TE – Dallas Cowboys
James Cook RB – Buffalo Bills
Amari Cooper WR – Cleveland Browns
James Conner earned the reputation as a league-winning asset in 2021, vastly out-performing his RB47 ADP with 17.2 PPR PPG (RB7). Conner was relatively inefficient as a rusher, recording 752 yards on 202 carries (3.7 YPC) but maintained a ridiculous scoring ceiling with 18 touchdowns on the season.
The Cardinals enter 2022 with Conner as the undisputed backfield leader adding minimal depth behind him after losing Chase Edmonds to free agency. Subsequently, after several injury-riddled seasons with the Steelers, managers are rightfully concerned about Conner’s durability should he be asked to bear a larger workload. The age cliff is approaching rapidly as Conner enters his sixth season at 27. Still, his increased role in 2022 on one of the league’s best offenses offers high-upside production for a fraction of the cost.
Conner falls just outside the top 100 assets in dynasty startups, allowing managers to insulate value at multiple other positions before drafting an RB1-caliber player. His weight on the trade market is adjacent to various stagnate assets and high-risk rookies.
Conner is best suited on a contending roster, further driving his consensus value down. We have reiterated that managers are over-adjusting in attempts to get ahead of the 2023 Draft market and are willing to take production hits to shore up future value.
Conner can provide contending rosters with a solid plug-and-play running back at RB3 costs. Alternatively, managers in a rebuilding phase should view Conner as an asset that can deliver a much higher return on the market once the 2022 season begins.
Chase Edmonds RB – Miami Dolphins
Position Rank: RB 39
Overall Rank: 156
Value Adjacent Assets:
Desmond Ridder QB – Atlanta Falcons
Devin Singletary RB – Buffalo Bills
John Metchie WR – Houston Texans
2022 Early Third Round Rookie Draft Pick
Robert Woods WR – Tennessee Titans
Alexander Mattison RB – Minnesota Vikings
It is fitting that the next player on the Dynasty Market Sweep is Conner’s former teammate and backfield partner, Chase Edmonds. The fifth-year running back served as the Cardinals’ change-of-pace option in 2021, touting the rock for a career-high 116 carries and 592 rushing yards.
A speed demon in open space, Edmonds recorded 5.1 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per touch. Edmonds is an excellent weapon in the passing game, averaging a 13.4% target share and 1.65 yards per route in 2021, ranked 7th and 9th at the position. Injuries ultimately derailed an otherwise impressive season for the shifty 26-year-old back. Managers are devaluing Edmond’s upside in fear of concurring injuries and a drop-off in production on a new offense.
Navigating a backfield orchestrated by Mike McDaniel is like trying to find socks in the dark. You can never know which one is the right fit. McDaniel frustrated managers with an extreme running-back-by-committee approach as the offensive coordinator for the 49ers. Now with the Dolphins, McDaniel is in his first head coaching gig and expects to implement a similar run-first offensive system that he found success within San Francisco.
The most obvious candidate to benefit as the number one option is Edmonds, as he has both the speed and wiggle to excel in McDaniel’s spread offense. The Dolphins have a backfield of misfit toys, with Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel, and Myles Gaskin all expected to have a role. Currently, Edmonds is the favorite to lead the charge as the starting running back in 2022 and will greatly benefit from increased volume.
A healthy Edmonds can be a game-changer on your offense, considering his cost. Whether rebuilding or competing, managers can acquire the Dolphin’s number one running back at a radical discount. Much like the previously mentioned veteran assets in this series, Edmonds’ uptick in value will be minimal in relation to his potential production. However, he is a safe and affordable option to help increase the overall value of your dynasty roster once trade negotiations heat up mid-season.
James Robinson RB – Jacksonville Jaguars
Position Rank: RB 42
Overall Rank: 166
Value Adjacent Assets:
2024 Mid Second Round Rookie Draft Pick
Michael Carter RB – New York Jets
Albert Okwuegbunam TE – Denver Broncos
Tyler Boyd WR – Cincinnati Bengals
Wan’Dale Robinson WR – New York Giants
2022 Early Third Round Rookie Draft Pick
James Robinson had an unbelievable breakout in 2020, rushing for 1070 yards and ten touchdowns as an undrafted rookie free agent. Unfortunately, Robinson’s 2021 season ended in disaster as the second-year running back tore his achilles in a Week 17 matchup against the Jets.
An injury of such severity has been a historical career-killer for NFL running backs. Developments in surgery and rehabilitation have assisted recovery time, but there are no encouraging cases of players returning to relevance for us to draw back on. Cam Akers is the most recent player to return from an achilles tear, beating his recovery window in record time to rejoin the Rams during their playoff run after suffering the injury just eight months prior. Akers appeared to be a ghost of his former self, plodding his way to minimal yardage in the Rams’ playoff games.
Before the injury, Robinson was a volume-dependent plodder with awful efficiency. As a rookie, Robinson ranked first in the NFL with an 85.2% opportunity share yet only managed .066 fantasy points per opportunity, ranked 66th. His sophomore season was derailed long before his arrival on injured reserve as former head coach Urban Meyer refused to utilize his best players. Robinson’s decline in usage was met simultaneously by a reduction in production, falling from 17.9 PPG in his rookie year to 12.4 PPG in 2021.
Jaguars beat reporters suggest Robinson may be ready to partake in limited drills during the team’s mandatory training camp this summer. New head coach Doug Pederson went as far as to say that he sees Robinson as a three-down back once he returns from injury. However, it appears that Robinson is on track to miss several games to begin the 2022 season, opening up the window for Travis Etienne to reign supreme as the Jaguars’ unquestioned lead back.
Etienne is a phenomenal prospect who shares a storied history with the Jaguars franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence. If Etienne can succeed as the number one option, it is unlikely Robinson sees meaningful snaps beyond short-yardage and goal-line work.
Robinson’s lack of job security in his third coaching regime in as many seasons, coupled with his uncertain recovery from a career-altering injury, has torpedoed any dynasty value he once had. I would advise managers to avoid investing in Robinson even at his reduced cost.
SIGNOFF
Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor.
“We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Check out the other episodes in this multi-part series!
Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran WR Evaluation
Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran WR Evaluation Part 2
Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran TE Evaluation
Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran RB Evaluation
Don’t forget to join the #DFFArmy for exclusive fantasy football content by clicking HERE for a membership! #AlwaysBeBuilding
