Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of over-reaction.
POST-DRAFT MARKET REPORT
This weekend we watched the 2022 NFL Draft come and go faster than a spring fling between high school sweethearts. Now that teams are planning for the upcoming season, we, as dynasty managers, should do the same. 18 tight ends were selected during the 2022 NFL Draft. Although most incoming rookies will be buried on their new teams, several market changes have already occurred in reaction to landing spots and draft capital. In this episode of Dynasty Market Sweep, we will be viewing the notable impacts of the rookie tight end class.
NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES
Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals)
Round 2 Pick 55
NFL Draft Profile: Trey McBride
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – TE 19
After NFL Draft – TE16
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 193
After NFL Draft – 170
McBride’s draft capital in the middle of the second round as the first tight end selected is not surprising. Winner of the John Mackey Award as the NCAA’s number one tight end, McBride was the consensus number one option at the position. However, his landing spot is not overly encouraging for an immediate path to playing time. McBride joins a loaded Cardinals’ depth chart with an established veteran producer at tight end in front of him. Rookie fever has increased McBride’s overall market value, but his ADP in dynasty rookie drafts remains in the early-mid second. Patience will be crucial for managers hoping to cash in on McBride’s ever-growing rookie value, whether from a trade or on-field production. Expect a year of development behind Zach Ertz, but make no mistake, McBride remains the rookie TE1 and is well worth the investment.
Jelani Woods (Indianapolis Colts)
Round 3 Pick 73
NFL Draft Profile: Jelani Woods
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – TE 53
After NFL Draft – TE 59
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 377
After NFL Draft – 299
At one point, Jelani Woods was my favorite “sleeper” pick leading into 2022 Dynasty Rookie Drafts. Nobody is sleeping anymore. The NFL confirmed my priors this past weekend that Woods may very well be the second-best option available after McBride in a loaded tight end rookie class. Woods’ early-third round draft capital puts him in a high group of predictive success when considering his generational athleticism. Woods stands 6’7” and weighs in north of 255 lbs. on game day. He recorded a perfect 10.0 relative athletic score according to @MathBomb data:
Woods enters a Colts offense with a legitimate shot to be the Week 1 starter. Jack Doyle has walked off into the sunset to enjoy retirement, and the Colts’ only serviceable tight end is jump-ball specialist Mo Allie-Cox. Woods will need to refine his overall game as a pass blocker to become an every-down stud but his avenue to meaningful playing time has virtually no blockades. Woods is still a significant value in drafts, and managers should act accordingly. Strike while the iron is hot, and don’t leave your Dynasty Rookie Drafts without the most athletic tight end in NFL Combine history.
Greg Dulcich (Denver Broncos)
Round 3 Pick 80
NFL Draft Profile: Greg Dulcich
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – TE 69
After NFL Draft – TE 56
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 432
After NFL Draft – 356
Greg Dulcich surprisingly saw a minor but noticeable boost to his market value after the 2022 NFL Draft. Dulcich checks all the boxes of an NFL tight end but lacked primary production at UCLA to back up his stunning size and athleticism. Despite already having Albert Okweugbunam on the roster, the Broncos elected to select Dulcich in the middle of the third round.
The Broncos have traditionally run multiple tight end sets with success but are now under new management and coaching. Dulcich will likely sit behind Albert O for his first season. Even if Dulcich does find consistent playing time, he will have to fight for targets and touches against the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and the newly re-signed Melvin Gordon. If Dulcich’s presumed value hike continues, I would be more than willing to trade the young tight end away for even the most menial increase in production.
Jeremy Ruckert (New York Jets)
Round 3 Pick 101
NFL Draft Profile: Jeremy Ruckert
Position Rank:
Before NFL Draft – TE 32
After NFL Draft – TE 52
Overall Rank:
Before NFL Draft – 254
After NFL Draft – 372
In just one draft, the Jets have entirely remodeled the look of their offense. Jeremy Ruckert joins one of the youngest offenses in the league after the Jets selected Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall in the first and second rounds. Unlike his new teammates, Ruckert’s value saw a significant decline once his landing spot was announced. The Jets already have Elijah Moore and Corey Davis on the roster and added veteran tight ends Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah before the draft. Ruckert’s opportunity for snaps and targets will be minimal, potentially stunting his development at the pro level.
Ruckert’s value prior to the 2022 NFL Draft was relatively low. He is best left off draft boards in most formats after entering a problematic situation that has not been historically kind to tight end development.
SIGNOFF
Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible, so when you move all-in, the deck is stacked in your favor. “We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
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