There is no shortage of media coverage regarding the ongoing Deshaun Watson case. A six-game suspension was sanctioned for Watson on August 1st, 2022, by an impartial third-party judge. The NFL announced their intentions to appeal that suspension quickly thereafter, with formal news breaking on August 3rd via NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero.
If you are interested in the legal details of the court proceedings and verdict, please take a moment to check out the excellent work put together by Drew Davenport, who serves as an active criminal defense attorney.
The apex of this shocking and deplorable story appears to be nearing a close. A lengthy suspension is imminent. We understand this case is steeped in empathetic content with strong emotions attached. As a company whose primary goal is providing actionable takeaways pertinent to your fantasy roster, we feel it’s our responsibility to cover the impact this has on Watson’s career, his teammates, and their future outlook as dynasty assets.
Dynasty managers must evaluate Watson as a singular asset as if analyzing the stock market. We will aim to provide managers with a game plan for the inevitable by covering the fallout of Watson’s suspension.
DYNASTY VALUE
Position Rank: QB 9
Overall Rank: 23
Value Adjacent Assets:
Breece Hall RB – New York Jets
Early 2023 First Round Rookie Draft Pick
Deebo Samuel WR – San Francisco 49ers
Stefon Diggs WR – Buffalo Bills
Jaylen Waddle WR – Miami Dolphins
Watson’s current value on the dynasty market reflects a refusal to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best possible outcome in relation to fantasy upside. His ceiling is infinite when he is on the field. A minimal suspension would inevitably cause that value to spike into the top six dynasty quarterbacks should Watson return to his previous form of play. However, neither of those previously mentioned scenarios is a guaranteed outcome.
Watson will be learning a new offense, with a new coach, after missing more than a full season of in-game repetitions. There is no certainty that he even sees the field in 2022, which would leave managers holding the bag on a quarterback that has not suited up for a game in more than two seasons.
There is no historical comparison of a quarterback missing two complete seasons of play and returning to relevance in the NFL, mainly due to the incredible rarity of the current situation we are facing. However, two seasons of inactivity would be disastrous for Watson on several levels.
2023 brings an influx of highly coveted dynasty assets, with several star prospects at each offensive position expected to receive first-round NFL draft capital. The new wave of future talent could easily surpass Watson should he miss extended time.
Furthermore, the Browns will be in a challenging position with their future cap space. It will not be easy to add premier talent via draft or free agency without draft capital or salary.
The massive contract they allocated to Watson is soaked in controversy as much of the money is guaranteed and is backloaded to rid the young quarterback of any financial burden due to suspension in 2022. This contract leaves the Browns with little wiggle room to surround Watson with weapons after the 2023 season.
Watson’s current evaluation as a top-10 dynasty quarterback is much riskier than his proposed ceiling of fantasy production. The trade market is ever fluid, with massive changes occurring regularly. Watson’s stagnant value as a top-ranked asset is nowhere near as insulated as the value-adjacent assets surrounding him at ADP.
BUY/SELL/HOLD
As we illustrated above, Watson’s value as QB9 overall is based on the idea of a minimal suspension and potential counterappeal on his behalf should the NFL attempt to increase his penalty. Heed the warning: the bottom of his dynasty value could fall out at any moment, with managers panicking about a lost season.
I suggest you attempt to trade Watson now at his ridiculous evaluation for a younger asset with similar scoring upside, such as Trey Lance or Justin Fields (+).
Buying or holding onto Watson presents an insatiable amount of risk with an undeniable upside of possessing a top-five dynasty quarterback for a fraction of the investment cost. However, you must be in a secure position of value stability to warrant rostering Watson. Roster builds punting the 2023 season may have more interest in stashing an uncertain asset. Those rosters should also be your primary target when attempting to return significant value for Watson via trade.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
For better or worse, it appears Watson will have the opportunity to play in the NFL again regardless of suspension length. The NFLPA had openly backed the judge’s decision in the Watson case (before it was announced), with several members citing a lack of historical precedent for lengthened punishments in these cases.
Watson has not stepped onto a football field since January 3rd of, 2021, as a member of the Texans. He has proven to be an elite producer of fantasy points in his young career, never finishing below QB5 in PPG during three and a half seasons as a starting quarterback. The expectations are that Watson can perform at that level again despite missing an entire season in 2021 and an upcoming layoff in 2022.
He has passed over 4,000 yards in two of his past three seasons while continuously demonstrating his other-worldly rushing ability with 1408 rushing yards (15 TDs) during that span. Although the Browns may be lacking depth and capable receiving weapons, Watson has proven to produce with minimal help, as he exhibited during his time as the Texans’ signal caller. However, it is valid to question whether he will be able to reignite the high-end production after such a lengthy absence from the game.
BROWNS OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK
Chris Miles, Author at Dynasty Football Factory (@ChrisMiles1017) completed an extensive projection of the Browns’ offensive roster in his 2022 Projections. Let’s dive into the value of said offense.
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brisset is slated to start as the Browns’ field general during Watson’s mandated absence from play. Brisset holds little upside as a value swing on the trade market. He is a capable game manager with a limited profile. His production will likely fall in the range of a low-end QB2 during his tenure as a starter, much like we saw during his days as the stop-gap option for the Colts after Andrew Luck’s retirement. Brisset’s highest PPG total of his career finished at QB23 in 2017. There is no reason to expect anything different from the 29-year-old quarterback in 2022.
Running Backs
The Browns running backs are the least affected group by the Watson outcome. Head coach Kevin Stefanski prides this offense on being able to run the football on all three downs and in any scenario. When healthy, the duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are lethal in execution and can both produce fantasy numbers well above their respective dynasty values.
Hunt’s dynasty value is slowly declining alongside his increase in age. Consistent weekly production with a propensity for high-ceiling performances has kept Hunt steadily in the RB2 value despite approaching the dreaded age cliff at 27 years old. The sixth-year back may be staring down the barrel of a monstrous target share while Brisset is under center.
Nick Chubb’s dynasty value has always been capped by his lack of work in the pass-catching game. His stability on the market will be virtually unaffected by the outcome of the Watson case. Chubb has finished as a top-10 running back in PPG for three consecutive seasons. He would surely benefit from an upswing in scoring opportunities with Watson as the starter but will function fine without him.
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper will be the most affected party of the Browns’ offense should Watson face an indefinite suspension. Cooper’s dynasty value has been quietly decreasing over the past two seasons as the 28-year-old wide receiver was superseded by the younger, more talented CeeDee Lamb. A fresh start with an unquestioned role as the number one option did little to lift Cooper’s value back to significance. It will be difficult for the former Cowboys receiver to maintain relevance should his production not reflect an elite level of play in 2022.
David Bell’s rookie season will be marred with inconsistent quarterback play for a minimum of six games in 2022. Our 2022 Draft Coverage of Bell praised the Purdue alum’s three years of stellar production with an admitted disappointment in his athletic testing. The Brown’s uncertain future may be a saving grace for Bell’s dynasty value in his inaugural NFL season. Managers will be able to make Brisset the scapegoat for any of Bell’s inefficiencies as a rookie.
Tight Ends
David Njoku could see an increased role as a short-yardage security blanket over the middle for Brisset. Njoku has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career but has never strung together consistent production within the offense. Betting him to do so with Brisset throwing the ball is a recipe for failure. Although Njoku may have an increased opportunity share in 2022, it is unlikely he will see a significant increase in dynasty value.
SIGNOFF
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Check out my other works as an Author at Dynasty Football Factory.
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