Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of overreaction.
VETERAN MARKET EVALUATION
Veteran market values transition through a cyclical cycle every offseason. The psychological desperation to replace the old with something new and shiny is inevitable. Dynasty strategists can’t help but fawn over incoming rookies. Even in a weakened 2022 draft class, we saw incredible market shifts propelling rookies up the rankings. The causality of the heightened rookie evaluations leading into a new season is the decreased value of veteran counterparts.
If you are interested in an extensive dynasty market report on rookie evaluations and the attachment to assumed value, check out the Dynasty Market Sweep: Rookie Series.
Rookies are continuously viewed at their potential ceiling rather than a median range of outcomes, creating a lopsided shift in the market. Imagine you have the choice of two proposed assets. One of those assets is currently valued higher but has an infinite range of outcomes. The extreme of said outcomes presents the opportunity to increase profit substantially but also the chance to lose all value entirely. This is our mystery box, our rookies. The other asset in question is valued much lower on the market but gives you higher sustainability of secure value. These are our veterans. Managers are enamored with the unknown. The risk may be more substantial, but the mere idea of a larger payoff is too often too good to pass up.
In this episode of the Dynasty Market Sweep, we will continue evaluating established veteran wide receivers that have received noticeable decreases in value due to offseason market shifts. We will highlight a few players that are being valued well below their potential production and provide reasoning as to why those values are likely to increase during the 2022 season.
NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES
Mike Evans WR – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Position Rank: WR 22
Overall Rank: 61
Value Adjacent Assets:
Treylon Burks WR – Tennessee Titans
Late 2023 First Round Rookie Draft Pick
Terry McLaurin WR – Washington Commanders
DeVonta Smith WR – Philadelphia Eagles
Cam Akers RB – Los Angeles Rams
Rashod Bateman WR – Baltimore Ravens
In 2021, Mike Evans recorded his eighth consecutive season of over 1000 yards, becoming the first player in NFL history to accomplish the feat. Evans is still in his prime as a receiver at 28 years old. He has dealt with minor nagging injuries over the last few seasons but has missed only six games throughout his illustrious eight-year career. His value on the dynasty market is at an all-time low after the post-NFL Draft adjustments. This discrepancy allows managers an opportunity at a perennial WR1 candidate for a fraction of the cost.
Evans resides in a value tier of players he will likely outproduce for multiple seasons. The dynasty community covets all of the assets mentioned above. However, none of those players give you the instantaneous league-winning upside of Evans. His production should exceed the current tier, followed closely by his overall market value.
Evans’ price is not as low as other assets mentioned in this series. However, his resume of all-pro production deserves more respect. He has just one season in his career where he finished below 200.0 total fantasy points. Evans has finished outside the top-15 receivers in PPG only once throughout his NFL tenure.
The Buccaneers will likely be without fellow wide receiver Chris Godwin to open the 2021 season. The franchise brought Russel Gage via trade to supplement some production from Godwin’s absence. Gage has performed admirably in the past under a limited role with the Falcons but will be no threat to Evans’ role as the primary receiver. Evans had no qualms producing massive numbers in 2021 alongside volume hog Godwin and now has the opportunity to up his numbers to begin the 2022 season.
Tom Brady returns for one more run at the Super Bowl, further ensuring Evans’s secure role as Brady’s favorite deep threat and red zone target. Evans received 19 targets in the red zone last season, leading the Buccaneers and ranking 10th amongst wide receivers in the NFL. He averaged 12.9 air yards per target and 23 total deep targets, ranked 15th in both categories. His 14 receiving touchdowns on the season trailed only Cooper Kupp.
Acquiring Evans at his bottoming cost gives managers a chance to manipulate the market for an easy gain.
Keenan Allen WR – Los Angeles Chargers
Position Rank: WR 34
Overall Rank: 87
Value Adjacent Assets:
Mike Williams WR – Los Angeles Chargers
Skyy Moore WR – Kansas City Chiefs
Late 2022 First Round Rookie Draft Pick
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR – Detroit Lions
Kenny Pickett QB – Pittsburgh Steelers
Kirk Cousins QB – Minnesota Vikings
2021 – WR 10
2020 – WR 12
2019 – WR 6
2018 – WR 12
2017 – WR 3
Those are Keenan Allen’s positional finishes in PPR scoring over the last five seasons. His market consensus ranking reflects an irrational overreaction from dynasty ageists. We have established that managers often overvalue the new and unknown for the opportunity at a lottery-level payout. These incredible contrasts in established and presumed production compared to perceived value allow us to capitalize on astonishing market swings regardless of team makeup.
Allen is embarking on his age-30 season but has shown no signs of decline. In fact, Allen’s 2021 season was amongst the best in his career. Let’s look at Allen’s most recent statistical season.
Career-high 106 Receptions
Career-high 157 Targets
1,138 Receiving Yards (Fifth 1,000 Yard Season)
6 Receiving Touchdowns (Tied Second-Highest Single-Season Career Total)
Allen remains in a category with the most dominant receivers in the NFL. He is the unquestioned leader of the Chargers receiving room. He averaged 17.5 PPR PPG in 2021 (7th) and 0.49 fantasy points per route (15th). Allen’s high-volume role is safe for as long as he is in a Chargers jersey. Furthermore, Allen has the incredible advantage of catching passes from a superstar quarterback on a highly efficient and fast-paced offense.
Justin Herbert is now in his third season as a pro, proving already to be one of the NFL’s all-time great young quarterbacks historically. Herbert has thrown for 9,350 yards in just two seasons, ranking sixth all-time in the great pantheon of NFL quarterbacks. His success is directly tied to the monster production of his favorite target. Allen has accounted for 22.78% of Herbert’s total career yards through the air, leading all eligible pass catchers by an unfathomable margin.
The Chargers’ 2022 offense is virtually identical to their 2021 roster. Allen’s slight decline in market value coincides with the gigantic contract offered to Mike Williams in the offseason. Williams was able to sustain multiple high-scoring games in 2021, but his early spike in target percentages proved to be an aberration. Williams would eventually regress to his career norm in target share, finishing the season with 20.8% of the Chargers’ passing opportunities. Nevertheless, it appears he did enough to entrust the organization with the confidence to pay him a top-ten receiver salary. Although Williams recorded career-highs across the board, his role remains that of a one-dimensional deep threat decoy that operates better as the number two receiving option.
Allen’s current market evaluation will surely see a spike that coincides with his continued dominance of NFL defenders. There is no reason to believe he cannot proceed to produce above his value in the upcoming season.
Brandin Cooks WR – Houston Texans
Position Rank: WR 42
Overall Rank: 108
Value Adjacent Assets:
George Pickens WR – Pittsburgh Steelers
Tony Pollard RB – Dallas Cowboys
James Conner RB – Arizona Cardinals
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR – Kansas City Chiefs
Early Second Round 2023 Rookie Draft Pick
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB – Kansas City Chiefs
Brandin Cooks reminds me of the legendary late comic Rodney Dangerfield. This guy gets no respect. Despite outperforming his preseason ranking every year, Cooks continues to be an overlooked asset in dynasty leagues. Cooks has recorded over 1000 yards receiving in six of his eight seasons in the NFL. In the two seasons in which he failed to crack the threshold, he played only 10 and 14 games, respectively.
The Texans did little to address the wide receiver position this offseason, bringing in John Metchie III (2022 Draft Profile: John Metchie III) via the NFL Draft. Metchie is coming off a significant injury to end his collegiate career and will reportedly miss the start of the 2022 season. Nico Collins will reprise his role as the secondary outside threat, leaving Metchie to assume the slot role upon his return. These facets leave Cooks’ function as the top receiving target secure for at least one more season.
Davis Mills is entering his second season as the Texans starting quarterback and showed the ability to perform well above expectations during his rookie campaign. Mills has developed a chemistry with Cooks’, feeding the receiver a top ten target share during the 2021 season (26.9%). Although he is 28 years old, Cooks maintains the ability to take the top off any defense with his blazing speed. In 2021, Cooks recorded 38.9% of the Texans’ air yards, ranked 7th in the NFL while amassing 24 deep targets (13th). Cooks is again staring down the barrel of another 100(+) target, 1000-yard season, and will surely benefit from Mills’ second-year leap.
Cooks has performed at a near-elite level throughout his career, regardless of who the starting quarterback may be. His expected points added (EPA) remains among the league’s top, with a +61.7 EPA rating in 2021.
The cost of acquisition for Cooks varies vastly from league to league. However, his current market consensus value is in a comfortable range for investing. Cooks fits the team build of a contending roster more than a rebuilding team but should maintain stable weight as a trade asset with a likely rise in rankings as the 2022 season unfolds.
SIGNOFF
Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all-in, the deck is stacked in your favor.
“We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Check out part one of this multi-part series!
Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran WR Evaluation – Dynasty Football Factory
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