Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
This article will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust within the market and avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of overreaction.
VETERAN MARKET EVALUATION
Veteran values transition through a cyclical cycle every offseason. The psychological desperation to replace the old with something new and shiny is inevitable. Dynasty strategists can’t help but fawn over incoming rookies. Even in a weakened 2022 draft class, we saw incredible market shifts propelling rookies up the rankings. The causality of the heightened rookie evaluations leading into a new season is the decreased value of veteran counterparts.
If you are interested in an extensive dynasty market report on rookie evaluations and the attachment to assumed value, check out the Dynasty Market Sweep: Rookie Series.
Throughout this offseason series, we have stated that rookies are continuously valued at their potential ceiling rather than a median range of outcomes, creating a lopsided shift in the market. Managers are enamored with the unknown. The risk may be more substantial, but the mere idea of a considerable payoff is a scintillating gamble for many.
Quarterbacks are the most challenging position to replenish in Superflex dynasty leagues. Their career longevity is by far the most stable of any position, with several of the league’s best quarterbacks playing late into their thirties. Landing a top signal caller in your draft or trade can drastically improve your chances of claiming a coveted league championship.
Acquiring elite producers at the quarterback position will always cost a premium. However, several market tremors have created value discrepancies that show no correlation to historical production. Surprisingly, these variances in the market were not caused by a new influx of rookie quarterbacks in the 2022 NFL Draft. Moreover, continued patience and potential overvaluing of the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of 2021.
We highlighted the market stability of the five quarterbacks in question during an earlier iteration of the Dynasty Market Sweep. The 2022 rookie quarterback class flatlined in value following the draft. Meanwhile, the 2021 quarterbacks maintained value relative to their entry year with the assumption that all five can increase production in their sophomore seasons.
Dynasty managers are foolishly undervaluing high-upside veteran quarterbacks in search of the next great second-year breakout. In this episode of the Dynasty Market Sweep, we will evaluate established quarterbacks that have received noticeable decreases in value due to offseason market shifts. Today, we highlight a few players being viewed below their potential production, offering a much cheaper investment alternative than the overpriced, risk-laden youth movement.
Every roster build and team situation is filled with infinite nuance, and these players should not be considered “must buy” targets. Additionally, this offseason value evaluation series can help prepare you for recurring trends as you build a more robust understanding of the fickle dynasty market.
NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES
Aaron Rodgers QB – Green Bay Packers
Position Rank: QB 18
Overall Rank: 74
Value Adjacent Assets:
Treylon Burks WR – Tennessee Titans
AJ Dillon RB – Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones RB – Green Bay Packers
Tua Tagovailoa QB – Miami Dolphins
Zach Wilson QB – New York Jets
Courtland Sutton WR – Denver Broncos
This right here, folks, is what it looks like when an age-adjusted market correction goes too far. Managers that wish to sell early on aging assets are not necessarily implementing an incorrect formula. It is a common practice to get a maximum return on investment before a presumed decline in production. However, that strategy needs to be exercised with an appropriate understanding of how difficult it is to replicate and replace elite quarterback output.
Aaron Rodgers is the reigning, defending, back-to-back NFL MVP and is currently ranked in a value-adjacent tier of players that have never cracked the top-50 in fantasy scoring (save for Aaron Jones). Rodgers’ blasphemous ranking outside the top 70 assets as QB18 is reflective in part of his age (he will turn 39 before the season’s end) and the departure of long-time go-to target Davante Adams. Losing an all-pro receiver without a contingency option will affect Rodgers’ high-end output. However, his current evaluation does not reflect even the lowest of possibilities in relation to his cost.
Rodgers played six seasons as the Packers starter before the team drafted Adams. The veteran quarterback’s lowest PPG finish in those six seasons was QB3. He has finished outside the top-12 quarterbacks in PPG in all but one season as a starter. Rodgers is still transforming his game to new heights even in the twilight of his career. Although the end may be near for the surefire Hall of Famer, the current outlook should not be as dark as the market reflects. As long as he desires to continue his career, managers should continue to value him as a league-winning quarterback.
Kirk Cousins QB – Minnesota Vikings
Position Rank: QB 20
Overall Rank: 86
Value Adjacent Assets:
Darnell Mooney WR – Chicago Bears
2024 Mid First Round Rookie Draft Pick
Antonio Gibson RB – Washington Commanders
Keenan Allen WR – Los Angeles Chargers
Skyy Moore WR – Kansas City Chiefs
2022 Late First-Round Rookie Draft Pick
Kirk Cousins was a primary focal point of our Coaching Changes episode, citing his impressive efficiency and PPG totals despite playing under the pedestrian offense enforced by former head coach Mike Zimmer. Cousins continually produces at a QB1 level yet is perennially undervalued as a low-end QB2. Cousins has played all 16 games in all but one of his seasons as a starter, dating back to the 2015 season. He has finished as a QB1 in PPG in five of those six seasons.
Any notions of Cousins declining as a passer in his are based on false pretenses. Cousins ranked 2nd in deep ball attempts (82) in 2021 with a 43.2% deep ball completion percentage, ranked seventh, and is just 33 years old. The 10-year veteran offers incredible upside considering his cost and is a scintillating addition for any manager that rosters Justin Jefferson. The Vikings field general can still sling it with the best and should continue to produce as a low-end QB1 for a few more seasons.
Jameis Winston QB – New Orleans Saints
Position Rank: QB 24
Overall Rank: 121
Value Adjacent Assets:
Miles Sanders RB – Philadelphia Eagles
Kareem Hunt RB – Cleveland Browns
DeAndre Hopkins WR – Arizona Cardinals
Christian Kirk WR – Jacksonville Jaguars
2022 Early 2nd Round Rookie Draft Pick
Cole Kmet TE – Chicago Bears
Jameis Winston comes with notable risk as an investment in dynasty but possesses attractive upside for a relatively cheap cost. The Saints’ offensive outlook is not as predictable in years past as head coach Sean Payton has called time on his illustrious career. Dennis Allen will take over for Payton as the captain of the clipboard on the sidelines. Allen is an in-house hire, spending several years with the organization as the defensive coordinator under Payton. Allen made conscious efforts this offseason to surround Winston with the best weapons available, signing Jarvis Landry and drafting Chris Olave to complement Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. All avenues lead to Winston slinging the rock at a high volume in 2022.
The last time Winston started an entire season, he was QB8 in PPG (20.5), finishing as the QB3 overall despite throwing 30 interceptions to match his 30 touchdowns. In his first season as the starter for the Saints, he averaged 20.69 PPG through the first six games, showing a new maturity and poise, throwing 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions. An injury abruptly ended a roaring start for the 28-year-old quarterback after suffering a torn ACL/MCL against the Buccaneers in Week 8. In his six healthy starts of 2021, Winston ranked as the QB 9 overall.
Winston is still in his prime with a positive outlook ahead. His stability in the dynasty market is contingent on upward production in 2022, but his current value as a near-QB3 is far too low for the potential range of outcomes.
SIGNOFF
Managing a Dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible so that when you move all in, the deck is stacked in your favor.
“We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”
Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
Check out the other episodes in this multi-part series!
Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran WR Evaluation
Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran WR Evaluation Part 2
Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran TE Evaluation
Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran RB Evaluation
Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran RB Evaluation Part 2
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