j.k. dobbins

Startup Strategies: Drafting to Reload, Not Rebuild

Dynasty / By /

Rookie drafts are wrapping up and startups are the only thing getting dynasty owners through the off-season. If you’re a true dynasty degenerate, at least set yourself up for success from the draft. We’re not going to just set ourselves up for success now, but build a sustainable roster for the future to create a true “dynasty.” You don’t have to go all-in on big-name vets, nor do you need to only draft players under 26. Mix a little of both strategically.

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Navigating Your Rookie Draft- 2021 Running Backs

Dynasty Build or Dynasty Maintenance?: Najee Harris

Dynasty / By /

The building or maintenance of a dynasty team can be such a fragile project. One early missed pick can quickly change the direction of your team. Such as using a second-round startup pick (1QB) or the 1.01 in rookie drafts on a player who doesn’t project to be worth the price. I am talking about Najee Harris.

Harris was selected 24th overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers who were lacking any sort of production from their backfield. But the bigger part of this is that he became a first-rounder, the 19th running back to do so since 2010. This is great for Harris because between 2010 and 2019, 43.8% of first-round running backs achieved at least an RB5 finish, and 75% achieved at least an RB12 finish.

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Antonio Gibson: Is the Sky the Limit or is the Limit the Sky?

Dynasty / By /

Would you believe it if I told you that Antonio Gibson, who played mostly wide receiver (WR) in college, tallied 16.2 carries and targets per game in the first 11 games of his pro football career at running back (RB)? After blowing up in Week 12 for 20/115/3, along with five receptions on seven targets, he was hurt early in the next game and missed two weeks. He then came back and received a large share of the workload again, but he was hobbled a bit by the injury and indeed it has lingered into the offseason, somewhat unexpectedly. What are his prospects for 2021, and how do they compare to the rest of the 2020 RB class and other similar ranked veteran RBs?

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2021 Projections: Baltimore Ravens

Dynasty / By /

In this coming series, I will be diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.

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Garrett Wilson: 2021 Devy Profile

Devy / By /

In his true freshman season, Wilson caught 26 passes for 385 yards and five TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 11.4% of their receiving yardage and 10.6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to an 11.0% dominator rating and an 11.3% adjusted dominator rating. Wilson also averaged 1.07 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout.

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Chris Olave: 2021 Devy Profile

Devy / By /

In his true freshman season, Olave caught 12 passes for 197 yards and three TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 3.9% of their receiving yardage and 6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 5% dominator rating and a 4.3% adjusted dominator rating. Olave also averaged 0.36 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout. His yards per catch average was 17.6, where above 16 is a statistically significant indicator for an NFL player’s deep-threat ability. The 2018 Ohio State team also had Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell, K.J. Hill, and J.K. Dobbins, all current NFL players, with who Olave was competing for targets.

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1 QB Dynasty Startup First Round Part 2

Dynasty / By /

Intro With the dynasty offseason in full swing, I wanted to give everyone a quick look into my dynasty startup first-round. I know the top players aren’t usually controversial, but I believe it’s essential to understand why particular players carry such a high dynasty value. Also, I won’t include any 2021 rookie players or picks.

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Rookie Stock Market: Week 14

Dynasty / By /

The first week of the fantasy football playoffs is now behind, and I hope you still have a horse in the race. There were lots of rookies in Week 14 that performed well and could have really helped your teams. One top-five QB in Tua, two top 10 WRs in KJ Hamler and Brandon Aiyuk, two top 10 RBs in Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers, and plenty of others like Lynn Bowden, and J.K. Dobbins who could have been worthy Flex plays. I will not dive into all of these players, but like last week I will be giving you a quick Week 15 playoff spin on the players I do touch on this week. 3,2,1… it’s go time!

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Rookie Stock Market: Week 11

Dynasty / By /

We are only a week or two away from the playoffs depending on your league. We’ve witnessed lots of splash weeks from this rookie class along with plenty of flops. Counting on rookies on a week to week basis is a gamble but can often pay off. I have monitored the ebb and flow of this rookie class and I hope to have you prepared to make an informed start or sit situation come playoff time. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s see how some of the rookies fared this past weekend.

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Week 6 Early Game Storylines

Dynasty / By /

As usual, I’m trying a different type of article this week. I will go through each of the early slate games and discuss one dynasty-relevant storyline per team that I’m excited to see. If I get a chance, I might look at the rest of the games in another article, but I wanted to start with only the first set. This piece will give you something specific to look for in each contest, which I hope helps you enjoy the games even more. I’ve listed the home team first for each game. I won’t waste any more time, so let’s jump straight in!

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 4

Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 4

Dynasty / By /

In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. 

I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.

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Dynasty Sleeper of the Week: Gus Edwards

Dynasty / By /

Welcome back to this week’s installment. As mentioned in previous renditions, this is not a waiver article, but more of a player that should be on your radar article. In the last couple of weeks, we have targeted the wide receiver position as I searched far and wide for a player at the running back position for everyone to keep an eye on or grab as a speculative add. Gus Edwards is not a sexy name. He is probably someone that you have dabbled with in dynasty, let go, and forgot about. That being said, Gus is still in the Ravens plans always just one play away from an even bigger share of work in an excellent offense.

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 2

Dynasty / By /

In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.

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@DynastyDiagnos1 DFF Redraft Championship Draft

All Access / By /

As expected, McCaffrey was the first overall selection, leaving me facing down the barrel of the next best dual-threat running back in Saquon Barkley. Barkley surpassed 1,000-yards rushing in 2019 despite missing time and is the most talented pass-catcher on the roster. By the time the 2.11 pick came around 16 running backs and 6 wide receivers had been selected. Choosing between Jonathan Taylor, Allen Robinson, and Travis Kelce at the top of their respective positions I decided that Kelce offered the best value over a replacement player at his position. At the 3.02 turn with Kittle having been selected it was far too tantalizing to pass up the opportunity to stack Kelce and Patrick Mahomes. Referencing the above tweet from Scott Barrett, the plan was to go all on stacking the RB1, TE1, and QB1 and hope for the best when it comes to depth.

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2020 Freaks Part Five

2020 College Football Freaks: Devy Impact Part Five

Devy / By /

Every year, The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman publishes his College Football Freaks List. This list garners data from college programs and highlights the players that are wowing the staff both on and off the gridiron. In year’s past, we saw names like Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Noah Fant, and Todd Gurley, among a long list of defensive studs and offensive line standouts namely Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney. We can garner a lot of information from the list that Bruce puts out, especially in deeper devy and Campus to Canton leagues. Let’s dive into the 2020 College Football Freaks List.

In this series, we will identify a high-value devy player who will likely maintain their high value or rise further. A middling valued player who you can steal and reap the big returns once they test at the NFL Combine, or their pro-day. As well as a sleeper who with a good season of production could return a serious increase in value.

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2nd Year Breakout Wide Receivers: Part 2

Dynasty / By /

The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook. In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered.  If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.

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#TomBomb: Baltimore Ravens

Dynasty / By /

No doubt, you probably had to double back to make sure this was a “buy-low” column. Don’t worry, Old Tom fully understands your confusion. I’ll say this, your potential shock factor is going to be off the charts when you get to number one. See, here’s something I always like to remember. The phrase “buying low” is of course a relative one. Given Old Tom’s self-proclaimed foundation of simplicity and subjectivity, I enjoy a good bit of relativism from time to time. With that said, Marquise Brown is an individual I feel is well worth his current price, as it will rise much higher in the coming months and consequently years.

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Why Veterans Key Champs

Why Veterans Are the Key to Fantasy Championships: A 2020 Edition

Dynasty / By /

In dynasty leagues, there’s always a delicate balance that owners must forge between dynasty value and winning championships. In the end, the goal is to win the most championships possible, as quickly as possible. However, sometimes, dynasty owners need to rebuild and trade away their veterans to return to contending status.

There’s nothing wrong with that approach, as I detailed in an article guiding dynasty owners in determining whether they’re contenders or not. Taking a mild step backward to take a big step forward is a healthy decision and often tough to make. With that said, I want to move away from individual dynasty teams and look more closely at how two specific groups of players have performed over time. It’s time for an in-depth breakdown of what rookies and older veterans do for your roster.

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Redraft Mock Analysis

PPR Redraft Mock Analysis

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I recently took part in a 1QB, PPR redraft mock with eleven other members of the DFF crew. I was very happy with the results, so I’d like to break down my team and my decision-making process throughout the draft. I entered the draft planning to select RBs in the first three rounds before addressing any other positions. This strategy, which I broke down in great detail here, is one I’ve been implementing whenever possible this offseason. I expected to target WR in the middle rounds while waiting to get my QB and TE late, which worked out perfectly.

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