Rookie Stock Market: Week 11

We are only a week or two away from the playoffs depending on your league. We’ve witnessed lots of splash weeks from this rookie class along with plenty of flops. Counting on rookies on a week-to-week basis is a gamble but can often pay off. I have monitored the ebb and flow of this rookie class and I hope to have you prepared to make an informed start or sit situation come playoff time. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s see how some of the rookies fared this past weekend.

Risers

J.K. Dobbins – RB Ravens

Week 11 Snap Shot

Against the Titans in Week 11, Mr. Dobbins finally got a real shot at being the feature back and he did not disappoint. As seen in the Snap Shot, J.K. commanded over 60% of the snaps and 17 total touches. I personally did not see this coming, mainly due to Mark Ingram being back in the lineup. I am not sure if the Ravens planned on easing the veteran Ingram back in or if Dobbins simply took over the backfield in Week 11. Either way, it was great to see J.K. Dobbins get 75% of the RB carries and looked good doing it. 

However, it is not all sunshine and roses after Week 11 for the Ravens’ rookie RB. Both Dobbins and Ingram have tested positive for COVID, ruling them out of this week’s matchup with the Steelers. Albeit the Steelers are a tough matchup for RBs, Dobbins logged his first big performance against them, rushing for 113 yards. It would have been nice to see him repeat, but he is put on the shelf for now until cleared from COVID. The future remains very bright for Dobbins though. As I mentioned a few weeks back, the Ravens have an out in Ingram’s contract this offseason. If Ingram were to be let go, J.K. Dobbins’s value would soar throughout the offseason.    

Jonathan Taylor – RB Colts

Week 11 Snap Shot

Being a Jonathan Taylor owner is like living at an amusement park: constantly rising, falling, spinning, screaming, and maybe even puking. After a couple of bad weeks, Taylor’s value is finally on the rise again. As seen in the Snap Shot, Taylor saw 56% of the snaps, his first time seeing more than 50% since Week 6. Like Dobbins, Taylor made the most of his opportunity and put together a very solid stat line, rushing for his second-highest single-game total as a pro. However, the efficiency Jonathan Taylor ran with in college has not translated yet to the NFL.

At Wisconsin, he averaged a staggering 6.7 YPC, but thus far as a pro, he has only averaged 3.8 YPC. Via playerprofiler.com both this juke rate and evaded tackles are pedestrian at #55 and #30, respectively. The one thing that has translated at the next level is his speed and breakaway ability, as he ranks #11 in the league in breakaway runs with five. The efficiency and evaded tackles could soon be forgotten though if Jonathan Taylor strings together a few more startable fantasy weeks. His value is trending up, but as we know with “JT” this could change seeing the way his 2020 has gone.

Fallers

Tee Higgins – WR Bengals

Week 11 Snap Shot

Higgins’s outing against the Washington Football Team was debatably his worst and least efficient game of the year. Tee had a season-low catch % of 30, but it was not all his fault. His rising star QB and fellow rookie Joe Burrow left the game with a severe knee injury and his replacement Ryan Finley matched Higgins catch % with a completion percentage of the same. I still believe Higgins is a fantastic WR, but no longer being tied to Joe Burrow for the rest of the season undoubtedly hurts his value and impact in 2020.

The Bengals have named Brandon Allen as the starter for Week 12, and it is only right to project Higgins as a less productive WR for the remainder of the season, as it would be unwise to project Allen to be as effective as Joe was under center. Tee Higgins may end up being a startable player to finish the season, but his 13.1 points per game are almost certain to drop without the talented Burrow tossing him the rock. Like J.K. Dobbins, the outlook for 2021 and beyond is still very good. 

Similar to the situation in Baltimore, the veterans in Cincinnati could be out of the picture come next season. Boyd is signed through 2023 but has an out after the season, and A.J. Green is only signed through this season. I do not see the Bengals letting Boyd go, but even with Boyd in the picture, Higgins has been a productive WR, good for WR27 on the year as a rookie. Higgins’s value takes a slight dip without Burrow but he could rise this offseason. 

Henry Ruggs – WR Raiders

Week 11 Snap Shot

If you follow me on Twitter you know I have never been in Ruggs’s corner. The majority of my evaluation process for rookie WR is analytics-based and Ruggs had an inferior profile, like 2020 Jets-bad analytics. However, there was a glimmer of hope for Ruggs due to his first-round draft capital, athletic ability, and traits he showed on tape. Eleven weeks into this rookie season, things are not looking good. Before Week 11 I tweeted the following:

After Week 11 this is still very much true. The first WR taken in the 2020 NFL Draft had been nothing but a disappointment. On the season Ruggs has 256 yards and one touchdown over eight games. He has been hurt but his involvement even prior to injury was not great. I find this hard to be what the Raiders had in mind for their first-round pick, but they continue to feature an outcast from the Eagles, Nelson Agholor, as the primary WR in this offense. It is almost as if Ruggs’s role as a complementary WR in college is now what he is in the NFL. Who would have thought? Ruggs needs to turn this around quickly before he is labeled a bust. His value is tanking and he needs a shot of hope quickly to keep his stock afloat. 

Buys

Tee Higgins – WR Bengals

This is one of those classic “Buy Low” moments. Although Higgins’s value hasn’t taken a significant hit, the loss of Joe Burrow is not helping his production in 2020. The past week was probably Higgins’s worst of the season and could potentially signal what we should expect from Higgins for the rest of the season, but as I wrote above I am not considered about his long-term value. With Burrow out for at least the rest of the season, his immediate production and value take a hit, but dynasty is not a game of the now, and value of assets is always changing.

If I were a Higgins owner I would be holding unless I was blown away with an offer that pushes me to a championship. That said, some owners looking to win-now could be looking to offload Higgins for a profit and help to compete this year. I would be more than comfortable giving up a projected early first-round pick value or a mid-to-late first and second-round pick for Tee Higgins. The buying window may even open up more in the coming weeks with Brandon Allen now at QB for the Bengals. No matter your position in your league it is 100% worth it to send out feelers on Higgins in the coming weeks. I find it hard to imagine a situation where Higgins’s value isn’t higher this time next year than it is now. 

Sells

Salvon Ahmed – RB Dolphins

Week 11 Snap Shot

Same deal as last week. We have a rookie RB who is nothing but a short term rental. He looks pretty good right now, but I don’t see him as a long term asset. Take a look at my thoughts from last week for a deeper dive.

Thanks for reading another edition of the “Rookie Stock Market”. I hope you took some actionable advice from this! You can follow on Twitter @RookieWhisper for more content.