Rookie Stock Market: Week 14

The first week of the fantasy football playoffs is now behind, and I hope you still have a horse in the race. There were lots of rookies in Week 14 that performed well and could have really helped your teams. One top-five QB in Tua, two top 10 WRs in KJ Hamler and Brandon Aiyuk, two top 10 RBs in Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers, and plenty of others like Lynn Bowden, and J.K. Dobbins who could have been worthy Flex plays. I will not dive into all of these players, but like last week I will be giving you a quick Week 15 playoff spin on the players I do touch on this week. 3,2,1… it’s go time!

Risers

Cam Akers – RB Rams

Week 14 Snap Shot

Wow, if you tuned in last week, you know I like Cam Akers and thought we would have a Flex worthy performance in Week 14. But I did not see a truly dominant 194 yard performance anywhere in the tea leaves. I thought a 50% snap share was reasonable for Akers and he then blew us away with nearly 80% of the snaps and almost 90% of the rush attempts. I mean, wow! Sean McVay tossed Cam Akers the keys to the car and he sped away getting serious mileage on the highway, and then he let Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson just take a quick lap around the cul de sac. I know lots of analysts liked Akers a lot going into the season, but after a few minimally productive weeks in the middle of the season, the hype for Akers seemed to vanish. After Cam Akers Thursday night explosion, every other Tweet was about Akers. The hype is back and everyone and their mom appears to be all in Akers. Twitter hype really can drive up value, and it helps when a player blows up in a feature game like TNF, SNF, or MNF. Before the game, I would say the consensus value on Akers was probably a late first or early second, but now going into Week 15 his value has ballooned to an early first or more depending on the person. I doubt Akers is equally as dominant in Week 15, but all he needs is a solid performance and no flop to sustain his value.

Week 15 Playoff Spin

Last week I was too conservative and lowballed Akers on his projection. I aim to be on the conservative side again this week, so it is more likely he exceeds expectations instead of disappointing. This week I will bump up his projected snap share to 65% and predict he scores 14 PPR points. The Rams play the winless and Jets and should be in control of the game pretty early on. This should mean a healthy amount of touches for Akers. I would confidently play Akers as an RB2/3 with a safe floor and big upside.

Jonathan Taylor – RB Colts

Week 14 Snap Shot

Yep, you read that right. Jonathan Taylor was RB2 the first week of the playoffs. If you have JT and made it to the playoffs, you are jumping for joy right now. Owning Taylor has had its highs, but it has no doubt had its lows as well. Taylor has had four single-digit games, but he also has three 20+ point games averaging 14.54 PPR points per game. With back-to-back 20+ performances behind him, Taylor will look to continue the big game streak against the Texans. The only thing that is slightly concerning me about Taylor is that he has only eclipsed more than 60% of the snaps just once, back in Week 2. However, the snap rate is a double-edged sword, as just imagine what Jonathan Taylor could do with a 65% snap share. Similar to Cam Akers, this rookie’s value is skyrocketing. There is even a large chunk of dynasty football owners that now prefer Jonathan Taylor to Saquon Barkley.

Player values are always fluctuating, especially for rookies! One reason why you should stay up to date with the “Rookie Stock Market”.

Week 15 Playoff Spin

This week Jonathan Taylor faces the Texans who allow the most points to RBs in the NFL. I am going to go a little more aggressive with my projection here, compared to Akers, and predict Jonathan Taylor goes for 18 PPR points. A very solid outing, but snapping his streak of 20+ point games. You should feel great plugging Taylor in as an RB2, as he has a great chance of running wild against the abysmal Texans’ run defense.

Fallers

CeeDee Lamb – WR Cowboys

Week 14 Snap Shot

Since Dak Prescott went down in Week 5, CeeDee Lamb has had a pretty rough go. Since Week 6, Lamb has averaged 10.0 PPR points per game, only 0.8 more than fellow rookies K.J. Hamler and the disappointing Jalen Reagor. This showcases how important QB play is for a WR, as Lamb was averaging 17.1 PPR points per game through Week 5 and the WR11 at the time. Something that I have brought up previously and bothers me a bit is Lamb’s usage in general. CeeDee is seeing 69.1% of the offensive snaps, and this is primarily due to the role the Cowboys have Lamb playing. The rookie is taking 85% of his snaps from the slot, so when Dallas is not in a three WR set, it is unlikely CeeDee Lamb is on the field.

With Michael Gallup signed through 2021 I find it very likely that Lamb is still used primarily in the slot next season. The good news is, it is unlikely Andy Dalton is the QB in Dallas next year, and if Dak Prescott is re-signed, we can assume Lamb can get back to the 17 PPG or even better in his second year as a pro. However, as long as Andy Dalton is under center in Dallas, Lamb’s upside is capped, hurting his production and subsequently his current value as a dynasty asset. 

Week 15 Playoff Spin

CeeDee draws the 49ers, who are middle of the road when it comes to stopping WRs. Knowing Lamb has averaged 10-point PPR games a game since losing Dak, I believe 10 points is the easy and correct projection for CeeDee in Week 15. I would not feel great about playing Lamb even as a Flex, but you might be in a situation where he is your best option. In that case, cross your fingers and hope Lamb scores his fifth TD of the year. 

Justin Herbert – QB Chargers

Week 14 Snap Shot

Just going off Herbert’s Week 14 stat line may make you question why he is a faller, but this is more than just about Week 14. The past three weeks now have been a bit of a letdown for the rookie QB. Since Week 12 Justin Herbert has scored just 40.52 points, good for QB21 the last three weeks. When Nick Mullens, Andy Dalton, and Mitch Trubisky are scoring more than you, it is not a good look. Interestingly enough, Herbert’s fall in production coincides with the return of Austin Ekeler. I am not sure if Herbert doesn’t do as well when targeting RBs, or if he simply hit a rookie wall. Either way, I am a little concerned about Herbert to end out the season. Some owners are probably furious with Herbert after his 6.36 points right before the playoffs which probably tanked many teams and killing their playoff hopes. The sour taste of that performance will remain in most people’s mouths, sinking Herbert’s value for a bit. He needs a big game in the next week or two to get back in the owner’s good graces. 

Week 15 Playoff Spin

By the time this is published the Chargers will have already played against the Raiders on Thursday night. However, I am writing this shortly before the game so I will give you my quick take. Herbert will be playing with a banged-up Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, reportedly both on a snap count. With a less than 100% healthy offense, I have a hard time projecting Herbert over 20 points. I think 18 like Week 14 is more realistic. 18 points are still solid though and I would still start Herbert over any QB you will find on waivers.

Buy

J.K. Dobbins – RB Ravens

Week 14 Snap Shot

Dobbins has been good the past three games, averaging 15 PPG during that stretch. So you may ask, why is he a buy? Don’t you typically want to buy falling assets? Yes, players falling in value are logical targets if it is likely their value will rebound. However, in this situation, I see Dobbins as a buy for two reasons.

The Success and Production of Other Rookies

Even with 15 PPG in the past three games, Dobbins is still being outproduced by James Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, and Antonio Gibson in PPG during the same time frame. RB5 among rookies is not sexy, and because Dobbins isn’t getting a ton of hype, his value is pretty stagnant. 

Increased Opportunity in 2021

In previous articles, I have referenced the potential for Dobbins to see a lot more touches next season. The Ravens have an out in Mark Ingram’s contract after the season, and Gus Edwards is only signed through the end of the season. With many owners in playoff mode, primarily looking to win now, you could send a more reliable and currently productive player for J.K. Dobbins who could be a big-time producer next season.

Long story short, owners of Dobbins may not trust him in the playoffs due to the three-headed monster that is currently the Ravens’ rushing attack. Acquiring J.K. now could be a very profitable acquisition depending on how the offseason develops.

Week 15 Playoff Spin

Dobbins draws a very favorable matchup against the Jaguars, who are 30th when it comes to points allowed to RBs. While sharing carries with Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Mark Ingram, Dobbins has been getting the lion’s share of the RB carries. I expect the Ravens to get out to an early lead on the Jaguars and then play lots of ball control football. This should spell lots of carries for Dobbins. I expect him to get more than his three-game average of 13 rushes and rack up at least 75 yards on the ground. The question remains, does he will find the end zone? I will project a 17 point PPR performance out of Dobbins in Week 15.

Sell

Gabriel Davis – WR Bills

Week 14 Snap Shot

Mr. Davis has now seen at least 80% of the snaps and scored a TD in three straight games, an impressive feat for any rookie especially a fourth-rounder. Although he has played well, it is not quite all his own doing. He can thank the injury of John Brown for the increased role. John Brown has not played since Week 11, leaving the door wide open for Gabriel Davis. However heading into Week 15, John Brown is now designated to return from IR. With Brown coming back I do not expect Davis to be completely written out of the offense, but his role is certain to shrink. With three straight productive games out of the rookie, his value is clearly on the rise. Although only receiving about a third of the votes in the poll below, I believe it still speaks volumes about the rise his value has taken.

If you follow me on Twitter, you know I am a big supporter and believer in Jalen Reagor, but seeing Davis get more than a quarter of the votes is shocking to me. If you are a Gabriel Davis owner, I would shoot the Reagor owner the offer right now to see if they are part of the third that prefers Davis. I would even feel comfortable adding an early third to the offer to get the deal done.

Week 15 Playoff Spin

I am writing this with the assumption that John Brown will not be playing this weekend. Unlike most of the rookies on this list, Gabriel Davis does not have a great matchup. Denver is seventh-best when it comes to stopping WRs. For Davis to have a productive game, this will need to be a shootout. However, considering Buffalo allows the most points to QB in the league it could certainly be one! Davis has averaged nearly 15 PPG over the past three games, but I think this week could be a bit of a letdown. I will conservatively project Gabriel Davis 10 PPR points with his TD streak coming to an end.

Thanks for reading and best of luck this week in the semi-finals! You can follow me @RookieWhisper for more content.