Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Jonathan Taylor
There’s not too much to say about Taylor. While he wasn’t originally part of the Colts’ Week 1 gameplan, he stepped into the early-down role after Marlon Mack tore his Achilles tendon. Mack will miss the remainder of the 2020 season, allowing Taylor to start.
Most impressively, Taylor caught all six of his targets for 67 yards, silencing the doubts about his passing-game prowess. He only had nine carries for 22 yards, but I fully believe he will grow as a runner very quickly. Taylor is a first-round startup pick and a solid RB1 moving forward.
Nyheim Hines
Taylor wasn’t the only beneficiary from the Colts’ backfield. Even before Mack’s injury, the Colts incorporated Hines into their gameplan, using him both in the passing game and at the goal-line. Hines took seven carries for 28 yards and a touchdown, and he caught eight receptions for 45 yards and a touchdown.
With Mack down, Hines should occupy a significant role in the Colts’ offense, especially since Philip Rivers loves to check down to running backs. I think Taylor and Hines could serve as a version of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler from Rivers’ days as the Chargers’ quarterback. While I don’t believe Hines is the same type of talent as Ekeler, he now presents RB3 value in PPR dynasty leagues. He’s an excellent bench stash or cheap running back buy target for contenders.
Joshua Kelley
At the start of the Chargers’ game versus the Bengals, they used Justin Jackson as their early-down back, complementing Austin Ekeler. However, they quickly turned to Kelley, who played well. Jackson then suffered a quad injury, leaving the door completely open for Kelley. Kelley grabbed his opportunity, taking 12 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown.
I expected Kelley to win the Chargers’ early-down role before the season, and I don’t expect him to relinquish that role back to Jackson. Kelley is moving close to the top-100 in dynasty formats, especially considering how much the Chargers run the ball. Kelley falls in the same value range as players like AJ Dillon and Phillip Lindsay, although he has far more immediate upside than either of those options. I consider Kelley an excellent buy target because I think his value will continue to rise throughout the season.
Corey Davis
Of course, Davis rose from the dead in Week 1. He caught seven of his eight targets for 101 yards, leading the Titans in receiving ahead of A.J. Brown. Given everything Davis has put dynasty owners through, I can’t blame them for not trusting this fourth-year breakout.
However, I want to remind everyone that Davis was the fifth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Highly drafted players receive multiple chances in the NFL, and Davis will be no exception. The Titans declined his fifth-year option for 2021, so he’s likely to play for a different team in 2021. Wait for him to have a few quiet games and then buy him on the cheap. The talent is there, but he won’t succeed in Tennessee’s run-first offense behind A.J. Brown.
James Robinson
A few weeks ago, I had no clue who Robinson was. However, he impressed the Jaguars’ coaching staff enough to allow them to release Leonard Fournette. Robinson immediately claimed the starting job, and he took 16 carries for 62 yards while adding one reception for 28 yards. Robinson had every single carry for Jaguars’ running backs, although they did use Laviska Shenault on a couple of running plays.
However, I wouldn’t rely on Robinson long-term. He’s an undrafted free agent, and the Jaguars recently lost backups Devine Ozigbo and Ryquell Armstead to injuries and COVID, respectively. They should also incorporate pass-catching backs Chris Thompson and Dare Ogunbowale into the offense in negative game scripts. The Jaguars’ 2021 starting running back is not currently on their roster, so sell-high on Robinson while you can.
Fallers
Odell Beckham
Beckham caught a miserable three of his 10 targets for 22 yards in the Browns 38-6 loss to the Ravens this week. At this point, I can’t give Beckham the benefit of the doubt anymore. He struggled in 2019 due to a sports hernia injury, but he also didn’t display any chemistry with quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Beckham’s value is plummeting as dynasty owners lose patience with him. I think you have to hold Beckham on your dynasty rosters, but I wouldn’t seek to buy him right now. He’s a scary dynasty asset right now. If he doesn’t get it together soon, he’ll fall even further.
Cam Akers
I’m not entirely going to panic after only one game, but there’s no denying that Malcolm Brown was the Rams’ best running back in Week 1. Brown converted his 18 carries into 79 yards and two touchdowns, while Akers only had 14 carries for 39 yards. Not only that, but Brown also outperformed Akers in the passing game, with three receptions for 31 yards to only one reception for four yards for Akers.
I never saw Akers in the same tier as rookie running backs D’Andre Swift and J.K. Dobbins, and I’m happy I didn’t bet on him too much in dynasty leagues. Rams’ head coach Sean McVay insisted that the Rams would employ a backfield committee, and Darrell Henderson wasn’t even 100% healthy for this game. I hope Akers can take the lead back spot eventually, but it could take a while. Even when he does, there will still be a timeshare, lowering Akers’ long-term ceiling.
James Conner
Conner proved what we all thought: he can’t remain healthy. He exited the Steelers’ game against the Giants with an ankle injury, allowing backup Benny Snell to run wild for 113 yards on 19 carries. Conner wasn’t even effective before leaving the game, with only six carries for nine yards.
I believe that Conner is a few more poor performances from completely losing his starting position to Snell. Conner is a free agent after the 2020 season, and there’s no way the Steelers will bring him back in free agency. Therefore, they have every incentive to turn to Snell as their starter, possibly forming a committee between Snell and rookie Anthony McFarland. Snell is a classic bruiser, while McFarland is a shiftier back.
It’s probably too late to sell Conner, but I’d try to get out anyway. His value will only decline further. If he ever has another good game, use that as a point to get out from under him. He’s someone I want off my teams as soon as possible.
Le’Veon Bell
Like Conner, Bell played poorly and then left with an injury. Bell’s six carries for 14 yards were utterly unimpressive, although he did manage two receptions for 32 yards. However, unlike Conner, we already know that Bell’s hamstring injury will keep him out of the next three games at least, as the Jets already placed him on injured reserve.
Jets’ head coach Adam Gase seems to hate Bell, as he left Bell in the game after his injury. A cynical dynasty owner might speculate that Gase did that on purpose. But, either way, Gase appears excited to turn to Frank Gore as the Jets’ starting running back. At this point, you need to hang onto Bell and hope he signs with a high-powered offense after the Jets release him this offseason.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Arcega-Whiteside is a bust, plain and simple. He’s had every opportunity in 2019 and 2020 to do something, and he’s failed at every chance. Despite missing Alshon Jeffery from the lineup, the Eagles didn’t even target him in the passing game. Arcega-Whiteside was supposed to be Jeffery’s long-term successor, but that’s not going to happen. He’s a few more bad games away from drop territory.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
