Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Justin Jefferson
After a couple of quiet weeks, Jefferson had a massive breakout game in Week 3. He caught seven of nine targets for 175 yards and a touchdown. Jefferson led the Vikings in targets and receptions by a significant margin, finally displaying the talent he showed coming into the NFL.
Most notably, Jefferson finally became the Vikings’ clear WR2 behind Adam Thielen. Jefferson played on 78% of snaps, behind only Thielen. Olabisi Johnson only participated on 8% of snaps, falling far behind Jefferson in the pecking order. Jefferson has consolidated his spot as the Vikings’ second passing target, as neither Kyle Rudolph nor Irv Smith Jr. has made a significant impact thus far in 2020. It’s too late to buy Jefferson now, but I would be thrilled to have him on my dynasty team moving forward.
Darrell Henderson
Henderson took command of the Rams’ backfield in Week 3. He took 20 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown, while Malcolm Brown only had seven carries for 19 yards. Cam Akers missed this game with an injury, but he didn’t look impressive in either of the Rams’ first two games.
At this point, I think Henderson might have a chance to win this job long-term or at least force a timeshare with Akers. Henderson is a massive riser, jumping over 30 spots into my top 100 dynasty assets. I’m also extremely concerned about Akers, who’s fallen almost 20 spots this week. Once again, I don’t recommend trying to buy Henderson, but he’s a solid hold right now.
Allen Lazard
Going into this game, there was some debate as to whether Lazard or Marquez Valdes-Scantling would step into the Packers’ WR1 role with Davante Adams out. Lazard answered that question, catching six of eight targets for 146 yards and a touchdown in a breakout performance. In contrast, Valdes-Scantling caught one of four targets for five yards.
Both Lazard and Valdes-Scantling played on almost all the Packers’ offensive snaps, but Lazard still saw more work. Adams should return next week, but Lazard is the Packers’ second receiver. If Adams ever misses more time, Lazard will step directly into Adams’ role while Valdes-Scantling continues to play as a depth piece in a deep threat role. If you need receiver help on a contending team, you could try sending a couple of third-round picks for Lazard.
Anthony McFarland
McFarland didn’t participate in the Steelers’ first two games, as James Conner and Benny Snell led the Steelers’ backfield in touches. Jaylen Samuels also mixed in as the Steelers’ passing-down back. However, in Week 3, the Steelers decided they needed to add a spark to their running game.
McFarland only played on 12% of offensive snaps, but he received six carries on those limited opportunities. He managed to turn those carries into 42 yards, and he also caught one of two targets for seven yards. I believe that McFarland offers excellent complementary skills to Conner as a third-down back. Samuels previously played that role for the Steelers, but McFarland is a far more dynamic running back. Keep an eye on McFarland’s usage in the coming weeks.
Fallers
D.J. Moore
It’s official. I’m now worried about Moore. Moore still leads the Panthers in targets with 26, but he’s only a bit ahead of Robby Anderson with 24. Unfortunately, Moore has only caught 14 of his 26 targets for 239 yards while Anderson has 20 receptions for 278 yards and a touchdown on his targets.
Moore won’t be a target monster in the Panthers’ offense. The Panthers also target Curtis Samuel and even Mike Davis, who’s had 17 targets through three games. Even though tight end Ian Thomas has been a non-factor, Moore just hasn’t produced the kind of fantasy numbers I want to see. I don’t want to panic yet, but Moore is quickly dropping down my rankings. He’s no longer a borderline first-round startup pick, which is where I had him at the beginning of the 2020 season.
Joe Mixon
Like Moore, Mixon was an extremely highly valued dynasty asset throughout the offseason. Most people believed that he would take a huge step forward in his fourth season, especially with rookie sensation Joe Burrow at quarterback. Mixon also received a 4-year, $48 million contract extension from the Bengals, and he only turned 24 years old in July. Therefore, he was a young running back and a locked-in starter for an up and coming offense.
However, Mixon has disappointed through three games in 2020. He’s averaged 17.3 attempts/game, but he’s only managed 3.2 YPC. The worst part is that Mixon only has nine total targets, which he’s converted into seven receptions for 58 yards. His teammate Giovani Bernard has 15 targets and 12 receptions for 98 yards, outproducing Mixon. Also, Mixon continues to come off the field on third downs, playing only 59, 50, and 72% of snaps in the Bengals’ three games.
At this point, I’ve dropped Mixon down to the bottom of my second round in 1QB dynasty startups. I’m not sure that Mixon will ever be the high-end RB1 we’ve all hoped he could be coming into the NFL. While Mixon should continue to see volume, I think he’s more of a borderline RB1 moving forward.
Leonard Fournette
I can’t deal with the Buccaneers’ backfield. Ronald Jones and Fournette have flip-flopped their usage through three weeks while LeSean McCoy continues to steal passing-game work and third-down snaps. In Week 1, Jones had 17 carries compared to five for Fournette, as Fournette only saw spot duty.
However, in Week 2, Jones caused a fumble on a miscommunication with Tom Brady, and Bruce Arians immediately turned to Fournette. Fournette then ripped off 12 carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns, and he also had four receptions for 13 yards. Jones only had seven carries for 23 yards and a touchdown, falling behind Fournette in snaps.
But, in Week 3, the Buccaneers seemed to return to Jones. Jones led the team in snaps with 51%, and he had 13 carries versus Fournette’s seven. Jones rushed for 53 yards while Fournette only totaled 15 on his carries. Both players had two receptions, but Jones had 20 yards on his catches, ahead of Fournette’s seven yards.
Now, the fact that Fournette is a faller doesn’t make Jones a riser. I think it’s clear that the Buccaneers don’t like either of these players, and neither is the long-term answer. Fournette is only on a one-year deal, and he won’t receive much attention in free agency or from the Buccaneers if he plays like this. Jones is in his third season, never consolidating his hold on the job.
At some point in 2020, we might see Ke’Shawn Vaughn get a chance if Fournette and Jones continue to fail. I want Fournette off my dynasty teams because I’ll never be able to trust him. If somehow you can still acquire a first-round rookie pick for Fournette, I’ll do that deal in a heartbeat.
Mark Ingram
Going into 2020, I believed that Ingram would continue to be the Ravens’ lead back, forming a two-man committee with rookie J.K. Dobbins. However, Ingram hasn’t managed to take that role, playing on only 36, 42, and 32% of offensive snaps through three games. To compare, Dobbins has played on 39, 31, and 43%, very similar numbers.
Unfortunately, Gus Edwards has mixed in more than I thought, taking 25, 31, and 23% of the snaps. Ingram still leads the Ravens in carries with 26, but Edwards has 18, ahead of Dobbins with 10. Dobbins leads the running backs in receiving, with five receptions for 51 yards, while Ingram only has two receptions for 22 yards through three games.
Therefore, the Ravens plan to use all three of Ingram, Edwards, and Dobbins in 2020. Ingram will provide nothing more than low-end RB3 value at best for the rest of the season, and he’ll likely be on a different team in 2021. The sell window for Ingram is gone, and I wouldn’t bother to buy low. He’ll never have significant dynasty value again in his career. Ingram is now an “old player” who will carry that stigma even if he finds a new starting job in 2021.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
