Amon-Ra St. Brown

Breaking Down the Dynasty WR Landscape: Part 1

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Hello, fellow Dynasty leaguers! In this series I will be going through the top-48 WRs in Dynasty, providing stats and insight on them. The WR market can be hard to pick apart because there are so many players in so many situations and so many factors in play. Here I will try to help make it easier by giving my thoughts on some players I find interesting and maybe it can help you navigate the market and find some values. When considering WR Dynasty value there are three main things I look at: a path to accruing value, immediate projectable production, and value insulation. These three things can be applied to every player and I use them often to compare who I value more. To do this I will be using BulletProof ADP and separating the players into tiers. Let’s dive right in with the first tier.

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Kyle Pitts

Comparing ADP, Dynasty to Redraft: NFC South

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A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking, “Well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYJ), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DEN), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty, he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over eight parts (one part for each division), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.

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Comparing ADP, Dynasty to Redraft: NFC North

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A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking, “Well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYJ), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DEN), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty, he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over eight parts (one part for each division), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.

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Christian Watson

Breaking Down the Metrics: Dynasty Football Wide Receivers

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In the fantasy football Twitter space, different and new stats and metrics are thrown out constantly by people talking about their favorite and least favorite players. My job as a numbers-based analyst is to understand which statistics best project fantasy success. In this mini-series, I will go through each position and tell you some of my favorite stats, how much they matter, and stats I often see that do not matter as much as someone might want you to think. Let’s dive right in with our first position: wide receiver.

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Garrett Wilson

Who Ya Got? Tee Higgins vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Garrett Wilson

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As the newest ranking team member here at DFF, I have asked myself this question quite a bit over the past couple of weeks: Who should I rank higher? These lead to fantastic conversations in league, text, and social media chats. The back and forth is where some of the richest discussions of fantasy football can occur. In particular, in the Dynasty space where a player’s value could vary depending on if the team is a contender or rebuilding, and also on positional need. Today’s discussion is not easily solved by either of those metrics though. All three of these guys are talented young WRs that work well whether you are contending now or looking at the long-term picture. I would be happy to have a roster with any one of them or even better all three of them but in a startup, where would I go? Let’s dig into these incredibly talented WRs. 

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The WR1 Wide Receiver Prospect Model Ratings

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For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a highly accurate proprietary forecasting formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. 

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The DFF Dynasty Start-Up Mock Draft

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As the dynasty league offseason is now in full swing, there are many upcoming NFL events to anticipate. Coming up on the calendar we have the likes of the NFL Scouting Combine, Free Agency, and the NFL Draft. In the fantasy football world, there is ample opportunity for value shifts for individual players and entire position groups. What better time to test the water than the end of February with a mock draft? 

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JSN & The Slot Receiver

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The fantasy community has adopted a strange tradition – hyping up a draft class a few years down the road, only to completely discredit them the year they’re to be drafted. Maybe not ‘completely’, but it certainly feels that way. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the most recent victims of our yearly tradition. I want to discuss why that is and see if we can draw any significant conclusions about our views on slot usage and production.

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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts: A Unicorn Without Its Horn

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A unicorn without its horn is still a very special horse. Its defining characteristic is lost, but it’s easy to see that the magic is still there. When I think of magic (and more importantly, unicorns), I don’t imagine white manes, rainbows, or holographic elementary school backpacks. I think of Kyle Pitts. His “magic” comes in the form of ridiculous workout metrics, delectable college production, and tantalizing size. His “horn” is his TE designation. Come with me on a different type of fantasy journey as we explore the fate of Kyle Pitts’ dynasty value if he were to lose his TE designation.

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Week 5 Starts and Sits

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Goff exploded last week against Seattle throwing for 378 yards and four touchdowns leading him to be the fifth highest scoring QB this year. What a difference a year can make! And in a game where he was missing Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, and D’Andre Swift nonetheless. It was an incredible show, but now he must take his Lions into New England, where Bill Belichick is known for making it tough on the opposing team’s best players.

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Redraft Values: Part One

Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC North

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (Preseason Edition). Training Camp battles are ramping up. Teams are preparing for their Preseason matchups. And injuries are opening up opportunities for players looking to earn significant roles and/or roster spots. The time to be the most active in Dynasty Leagues is NOW. We are going to hear “hype” reports from beat reporters. And we are going to hear some reports that make us feel a little uneasy about our player investments. Us Dynasty Managers must constantly research ways to bolster our rosters. In this continuation series, we will dive deep into one player whose dynasty stock is increasing and one player whose dynasty stock is decreasing from each team in every division. Today, we will break down the NFL North. 

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2022 Projections: Detroit Lions

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When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Amon-Ra St. Brown surely will see a decrease in production with health assets in 2022, I can’t draft him at cost.” But, this may be an overstated fallacy and ARSB is very draftable this year. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

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Dynasty Market Sweep: Veteran WR Evaluation Part 2

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Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.

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Free Agency Day 2: Dynasty Winners and Losers

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Zay Jones had a career year last year with 47 receptions and 546 receiving yards. He got a nice payday at up to $10M per year considering his lackluster career to date. They must have plans to incorporate him into the offense given the amount of the contract but he now enters a saturated receiving group. Jacksonville has been on a spending spree to improve the weapons for Trevor Lawrence. Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones are now added to an offense that is also getting back Travis Etienne. This is not exactly high-end talent but it is an improvement over what they had.

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The Pre-Draft WR1: Prospect Model Ratings

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For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a single WR1 rating. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics. If data-driven rankings are not for you, I suggest my colleague @DocFFFN’s wide receiver review from a film perspective. 

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DFS Week 15 Recap

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With a limited amount of options on the main slate, choosing the right players was that much more important in Week 15. Tyler Huntley was forced to step back into the starting role with Lamar Jackson out again this week and boy did he show up. Huntley led all quarterbacks in scoring with 35.9 DK points. His number one weapon was Mark Andrews, who was a slate breaker with 38.6 DK points. With that being said, let’s see how my weekly DFS picks played out!

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Post-Season Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Receivers 8-11

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It’s officially playoff time and we’re all living in a Covid-fueled fantasy hellscape as we’ve never seen before. Luckily, we play dynasty so we can say “Next season’s our year” like we’re Cowboy’s fans in January and think about the offseason. Rookies should be at the top of your buy and sell plans so we’ll continue our Dynasty Rookie Rankings series with the talent-packed 2021 receiver class. Make sure you’re caught up with the running back class.

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Paul’s Picks: Week 14

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Once again, I need to give a big shoutout to Matt (@PsychWardFF on Twitter) for taking over Paul’s Picks in Week 13. Despite his incredibly solid process, Matt had a pretty unlucky week of picks. Of course, in this totally upside-down season, we all seem to be getting more wrong than right. But this week, I’m hoping to right the ship. In many leagues, this is the final week of the fantasy regular season. In others, the playoffs have already begun. Either way, there is a lot on the line. So, let’s take a look at some names at every position that I believe will exceed expectations or fall flat in Week 14.

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