As the dynasty league offseason is now in full swing, there are many upcoming NFL events to anticipate. Coming up on the calendar we have the likes of the NFL Scouting Combine, Free Agency, and the NFL Draft. In the fantasy football world, there is ample opportunity for value shifts for individual players and entire position groups. What better time to test the water than the end of February with a mock draft?
The DFF Army is together for A HUGE analyst-only dynasty start-up mock draft, our first of the 2023 off-season! Here we randomly selected draft positions and then ran the draft in snake order–the settings are Superflex, TE Premium, and PPR. Hopefully, this can help give you an early sense of where you should be targeting players in your upcoming start-up drafts. Check out every selection from each round below, and each writer’s reasoning behind their pick.
1.01 – Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Ward – @PsychWardFF
There is no singular asset in Superflex leagues that holds as much value insulation as Mahomes. He provides both the safety and production to cement your build.
1.02 – Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Billy Beaman – @WillieBeamanDFF
There are really only a couple of ways to approach the 1.02 in a Superflex league and that’s going with either Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen. You could go with a safer option of Joe Burrow but I think the ceiling is too great for Allen and Hurts. Both of these quarterbacks have far too much upside to pass up on given their rushing ability. For me, Allen has just a bit more upside due to Buffalo’s tendency to throw the ball more than Philidelphia, while he also provides the same rushing ability as Hurts.
1.03 – Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Jagger May – @FantasyBluechip
This is a chalky, no-brainer pick but I would mostly like to point out that the 1.03 is my favorites spot in the draft because Jalen Hurts is much closer to Josh Allen than he is to whomever your QB4 is and this leaves me higher picks than the 1.01 and 1.03.
1.04 – Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Paul Patterson – @FantasyFreezer
Apparently, taking Lamar Jackson over Joe Burrow is incredibly controversial. For the life of me, I can’t understand why. Both are incredible talents that will be around for many years. But only one of these players has ever averaged 28 PPG over a full season. Lamar Jackson still possesses every bit of the league-breaking upside that he displayed in his MVP season, and with a new offensive coordinator in Baltimore I’m expecting a return to form in 2023.
1.05 – Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Ben Winkler – @bensprinkler
The stars are fully aligned for Joe Burrow to dominate the 2020s and beyond. Burrow has maybe the best supporting skill player cast around him in the entire NFL. As Joey Franchise said himself, “the Superbowl window is as long as I’m here”, and the same can be said about any dynasty roster with Burrow at the top. His rushing upside is limited compared to some of the other elite dynasty QBs, but Burrow has shown the ability to light up fantasy scoreboards just through the air, and he will continue to do so for a long, long time.
1.06 – Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
Malcolm Schultz – @716DFF
I believe the 1.06 is a great slot to select Justin Herbert. I discuss it further in this article, but his value has been driven down to a great price due to the rib cartilage injury he suffered this season. Quarterback is the most valuable position in Superflex dynasty, and I’ve grabbed my QB1 for years to come.
1.07 – Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Chris Miles – @ChrisMiles1017
I took 1.07 because I thought I would be able to get Lamar at a value but he went at pick 1.04 in this draft. I love seeing him get the respect he deserves but now I need a new pick. There was a tier break at QB here, in my opinion, and my next best would be Fields, but 1.07 felt a tad high. So I took my WR1 Ja’Marr Chase.
You might ask, ‘Why not Justin Jefferson?’ My main reason is Joe Burrow > Kirk Cousins. However, they both have similar career starts already. Year one points per game; Jefferson – 17.1, Chase – 17.4, year two points per game; Jefferson – 19.4, Chase – 19.0, and year three points per game; Jefferson – 21.7, Chase – TBD. They both also saw 29% per-game target shares in 2022, so if Chase can take that similar next step and eclipse 21 points per game I think we could see him as the consensus dynasty WR1.
1.08 – Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Doug Harrelson – @DougHarrelson
Seeing the quarterbacks flying off the board made this an easy pick. Especially when you are dealing with a 14-team SF league. There was some real consideration for Justin Jefferson but I have more faith in the chances of me piecing it together at WR in later rounds than I do the quarterback position. The other quarterback I considered here was Justin Fields. I decided to go with Lawrence since he has already produced some winning football and feels safer for that reason. I love Fields and think he will be great but there is a chance that if the Bears are bad next season he is out.
1.09 – Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Chris Museezer – @force_fantasy
Murray was the last of the elite tier of quarterbacks available in my rankings. He finished the last three seasons as the QB 3, QB 4, and QB 7 overall in fantasy points per game. He is still only 25 years old. I will take the ACL discount at 1.09 overall.
1.10 – Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
Devin Maney – @DevinManey
A 14-Team, SF league adds added pressure to snatch up a premium QB. Justin Fields was not getting back to me at pick 2.05 so I had to select the young franchise QB. Fields has the opportunity to grow into a top-tier dynasty QB, assuming the Bears build an electric offense around him. He is currently ranked QB6 on my big board, so getting him at 1.10 is a value to me.
1.11 – Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
MG – @AlwaysBBuilding
With the run on QBs being what it was I opted to shift gears with a Zig/Zag approach and grab a positional difference-maker. Enter mister Jefferson. Enough said.
1.12 – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
MR – @DFF_MR
Even though Bijan has not played a snap in the NFL, he is my Dynasty RB1 and an asset that will produce strong numbers regardless of his landing spot. With all the premium QBs off the board in Superflex, we are going young RB with our first-round pick.
1.13 – Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Joe Memmolo – @DFF_JoeMem
It’s an easy choice selecting Dak Prescott despite missing five and a quarter games last year, as the tenth QB off the board. Dak gets a lot of hate for not winning in the playoffs and being turnover prone, however, he’s 29 years old, tied to the team through 2026, and has finished as a top-ten QB in four of the five seasons that he’s played all 16 games, with his lowest finish being 14. I think there’s a time and a place to zag when people zig, but when bye weeks hit and you’re left starting an unknown commodity at the game’s most consistently high-scoring position, you can find yourself in a big hole trying to make up those points.
1.14 – CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Doc – @DocFFFN
In a real dynasty start-up with the option to make trades, the move would be to attempt to trade up into the top six picks for an elite QB or trade down from this pick. At the start of this mock, your author had intended to grab a top-tier QB and top-tier TE on the opening turn of the draft. However, the unpredictable run on QBs to begin this draft led to our esteemed colleague @DFF_JoeMem selecting Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott was the final reliable top-tier fantasy QB in your author’s rankings.
Instead, we move to a newly established elite WR, Dak’s very own WR1, CeeDee Lamb. Lamb finished 6th in receiving yards and tied for 5th in TD receptions in his age-23 season. He is currently several years younger than every WR that finished ahead of him on that list not named Justin Jefferson. Lamb is a foundational piece to build around for the next 8 seasons.
2.01 – Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Doc – @DocFFFN
The plan was to select Dak Prescott and Mark Andrews at this turn, but the decision to forego a QB led to what might end up being a “productive struggle” or “year 2 and beyond” type of team build. For that reason, anticipating looking ahead to 2023, your author chooses Kyle Pitts over Mark Andrews as his elite TE. Pitts is five years younger than Andrews and also surpassed the 1000-yard receiving mark as a rookie TE. He missed seven games and played hurt through several more this season, and was further hampered by ineffective QB play. Your author is not deterred by the poor 2022 statistical output from Pitts and looks forward to building this roster around elite young assets Lamb and Pitts, ages 23 and 22 respectively.
2.02 – A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Joe Memmolo – @DFF_JoeMem
Another “safe” pick for me after the turn, Brown is a stud in this league, tied to a phenomenal Eagles offense, and is only 25 years old. In a league this deep, I’m staying as risk-averse as possible. I could have snagged Breece Hall to start running a “hero RB” approach, but with the depth at the position, I feel like I can build a championship roster by attacking QB and WR, and then hopefully finding value at RB in what seems to be a very ageist offseason.
2.03 – Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
MR – @DFF_MR
Locking up a QB1 at the turn in a 14-man league was critical, and of the options on the board, Watson was the easy choice. I look for him to get his legs back and return to form with weapons like Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and hopefully David Bell at his disposal with an already solid running game anchoring the squad.
2.04 – Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
MG – @AlwaysBBuilding
The Zig/Zag continues. Grabbing a premium RB with a multi-faceted skill set suits my build. Fingers crossed he returns at 100%.
2.05 – Bryce Young, QB Alabama
Devin Maney – @DevinManey
Young is my early QB1 in the draft and the opportunity to build my Dynasty roster around two young franchise QBs is very enticing. Young does not feel like the type of prospect who is a cannot miss prospect, but he certainly has the opportunity to be a mainstay in my Dynasty lineup for years to come, so the risk feels very warranted. Looking ahead to the third and fourth rounds, I will likely be looking for a top-tier TE or one of my WR1s, depending on how the rest of rounds two and three shake out.
2.06 – Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Chris Museezer – @force_fantasy
Running back sees some of the higher volatility year to year. When you can get a consistent elite performer you grab him. Mccaffrey was the RB 1 in 2018, RB 2 in 2019, and RB 1 in 2022 in fantasy points per game. He came back strong from two injury-plagued seasons in 2020 and 2021. Injuries are not predictable. McCaffrey is 26 but we have historically seen elite running backs and strong receiving running backs have longer careers. McCaffrey just happens to be both. So I fully expect three to four more years of top-tier productivity.
2.07 – Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Doug Harrelson – @DougHarrelson
Knowing my next pick at 3.08 is a long long way away, I once again grab a young quarterback in this spot. I am making a mental note that a lot of people are drafting extremely young so I am considering making a move into a win-now build. My first two picks being great in either build has given me some flexibility to read the room a bit and find my lane. My other consideration was Jaylen Waddle but I am utterly terrified of what might be left at QB in round 3 so I take his quarterback instead.
2.08 – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Chris Miles – @ChrisMiles1017
Since this is a 14-team league leaving round two without a QB would be a big mistake. My decision here was mainly between Stroud and Lance. My thoughts are that Lance still holds a higher upside than Stroud, but Stroud is not lacking in upside himself and at this point has a higher floor than Lance. I think the safety of Stroud and the risk of Lance come together and outweigh the difference in peak upside between the two. Normally, I would shoot for pure upside, but in this instance as my QB1, and the other factors I have laid out, I will sacrifice some upside for the higher safety.
2.09 – Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Malcolm Schultz – @716DFF
As I stated in my last blurb, QB is the most valuable position in Superflex dynasty and I’m one of three teams with two of them. I have been buying Trey Lance as much as possible this offseason, but I discuss him in greater detail here. I love the upside Lance brings to a team, and he was the last young, high-upside quarterback left on the board.
2.10 – Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Ben Winkler – @bensprinkler
We play dynasty because we love the long-haul approach to fantasy football. Other than quarterback, the position in fantasy with the most longevity is easily receiver. Garrett Wilson is in the same tier of my rankings as A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb, and I have a feeling Wilson is going to explode this year with a more stable quarterback situation. Even with a Kirk Cousins-tier quarterback, I think Wilson could put up ridiculous numbers and will enter his name into the conversation with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase as not only one of the best young receivers in the league but one of the best receivers period. Give me all the Garrett Wilson shares I can get.
2.11 – Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Paul Patterson – @FantasyFreezer
In a 14-team, TE premium format, the positional advantage of an elite TE is even more exaggerated. I couldn’t push the button fast enough when I saw that Mark Andrews–just one year removed from his TE1 overall season–came all the way back to me. Stacking him with Lamar Jackson is just a fun bonus.
2.12 – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Jagger May – @FantasyBluechip
No QB worth the 2nd round fell back to me so I take a young WR who has proven to be a stud whether Tyreek Hill was around or not. WR is the 2nd most valuable position besides QB so I’ll take a stud pass catcher over an RB this high 10/10 times.
2.13 – Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Billy Beaman – @WillieBeamanDFF
Running backs are just not the wave this year. Everybody is fading the entire group for all other positions and even rookie picks. This year is a bit of a transition year so it makes sense but JT is just 24. He’s being pushed down the board due to an injury-riddled season and no quarterback. I always like to remember things can change fast in the NFL and all it takes is Indianapolis finally hitting on a free-agent quarterback or one in the draft. I wasn’t willing to let Taylor fall further than 2.13 and this fits my general approach of going “Hero RB” – where I will likely fade the group after grabbing one stud until round 10 and beyond.
2.14 – Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
Matt Ward – @PsychWardFF
There have been eight wide receivers to post a 1000-yard season in their rookie year (Jefferson, Beckham, Chase, Jones, Evans, Cooper, Olave, Wilson). Every one of those receivers repeated in their second season, topping 1000 yards receiving yet again. Chris Olave is a bonafide WR1 with top-10 positional upside.
3.01 – Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Matt Ward – @PsychWardFF
Points per reception. Amon-Ra St.Brown is a PPR stud, recording 106 receptions for 1161 yards and six touchdowns in his second season at just 23 years old. St. Brown has finished inside the top 24 WRs in PPR PPG for two consecutive seasons, charting as the WR10 (16.8 PPG) in 2022. Although he may fly under the radar, there are very few assets that possess both St.Brown’s youth and stellar resume of high-end production.
3.02 – Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
Billy Beaman – @WillieBeamanDFF
I took the win-now type approach with this mock draft, though I think I can still balance the roster from here on out. With my third pick, I decided to pass on Tee Higgins and select the old vet, Stefon Diggs, and pair him with his quarterback. Yes, he is 29, but I think Diggs’ game can age well. He should remain the target hog for the Bills over the next few years, I’m just hoping Allen and Diggs can get back on track in 2023.
3.03 – Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Jagger May – @FantasyBluechip
Tee Higgins flirts with WR1 numbers even with Ja’Marr Chase present and he’s scheduled to be a free agent in 2024, so I’m taking a player as my WR2 that would be Top 5 if he were on any other team. Higgins leaves plenty of meat on the bone for upside and you’re betting on talent in a situation that has a QB with the talent to feed both Higgins and Chase.
3.04 – Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Paul Patterson – @FantasyFreezer
Drake London had one of the weirder rookie seasons for a WR that I’ve ever seen. He dominated opportunities in the Atlanta offense with a 29.4% target share that ranked fifth among all WRs. However, due to historically low pass volume, he scored just 10.5 PPG. We may not see a massive improvement to London’s situation in 2023, but I am happy to bet on the talent and let the rest sort itself out.
3.05 – Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants
Ben Winkler – @bensprinkler
This draft becomes a story of good, good, and ugly for team Wink. Don’t get it twisted- I don’t believe in Daniel Jones as a winning franchise quarterback. But, leaving the middle of the 3rd without my QB2 would be a huge mistake, so what must be done, must be done. The ideal situation for Danny Dimes’ managers is that he stays in New York, where he is paired with the great offensive mind that is Brian Daboll. Daboll would continue to employ Jones as a runner and showed last year that he knows how to maximize a limited receiving core. Despite being, to put it bluntly, not an amazing football player, Daniel Jones is still a rock-solid QB2 in Superflex.
3.06 – Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Malcolm Schultz – @716DFF
With my third pick, I have now secured top assets in the two most scarce positions in fantasy football. Continuing with my tried and true draft strategy, I now have the best tight end in the universe in Kelce. With last season adding another TE one finish to his fantasy resume at 33 years old, Kelce does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. I enter every draft trying to come out of it with two elite QBs and an elite TE, and I’ve continued that streak in this draft. You can read more about Kelce’s outlook here; the article was written almost two years ago but holds up extremely well.
3.07 – Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
Chris Miles – @ChrisMiles1017
In the mid-third-round and I am debating between a few players here, mainly Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Russell Wilson. I went with Wilson because I do not want to get stuck holding the bag on my QB2, and if I did not take one here I would be looking at guys like Will Levis, Aaron Rodgers, and Derek Carr as my best options next round.
I knew there would still be good WRs available. So I bit the bullet and instead of making a fun pick by taking JSN, I take the pick that is better for the cohesiveness of a dynasty team and grab Wilson. I know Mr. Unlimited left us with a sour taste in our mouths last season but it was a new situation, new offense, new weapons, and not much of a run game. He struggled, heavily. However, in three of his last four games, he was the weekly fantasy QB three, five, and two. Being able to end on that note and add Sean Payton to the staff bodes well for Wilson’s future. He was the QB16 last year and I drafted him as the QB17, basically his floor, I am ok with this value on Russ.
3.08 – Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Doug Harrelson – @DougHarrelson
This is the pick when I make the full dip into win-now mode. I honestly may like DeVonta Smith more here normally but I am seeing a large group of veteran RBs and WRs that tell me if I try to win now I may get all kinds of value to the middle rounds. Often in groups with lots of savvy dynasty managers like this one, the young new talent will jump up draft boards allowing win-now teams to be high EV from a game theory perspective.
3.09 – D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Chris Museezer – @force_fantasy
I had four players queued up here. Drake London, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. All four were selected before my pick. I audibled by selecting a foundational wide receiver. D.K. Metcalf is a fantastic consolation prize. He is just 25 years old and has three consecutive top-24 wide receiver finishes. The Seahawks seem to have found their answer at quarterback in Geno Smith. Now they just need to sign him.
3.10 – Cooper Kupp, WR, LA Rams
Devin Maney – @DevinManey
The draft board didn’t go quite as I had hoped but I’m not disappointed in selecting Cooper Kupp here as my WR1. I expect Kupp to bounce back nicely and have 2-3 more solid years of production. I’ll be looking to get younger at WR in deeper rounds to come.
3.11 – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida Gators
MG – @AlwaysBBuilding
With my 3rd pick I return to the “Well of Dreams” and pick the most physically gifted QB prospect the NFL has seen in years, Sir Anthony Richardson. This kid is the real deal, but we may not see that potential until 2024.
3.12 – Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
MR – @DFF_MR
We are shoring up our young backfield with another Top-10 Dynasty RB in KW3. Walker amassed 200+ PPR fantasy points during his rookie campaign despite an early time-share with Rashaad Penny and appearing in just 15 games. Pairing KW3 with Bijan and a Konami QB feels like the start of a bruising build.
3.13 – Devonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Joe Memmolo – @DFF_JoeMem
Back-to-back Eagles receivers…feels crazy, but I’ll enjoy having the main options on one of the most potent offenses in the league for the foreseeable future. Smith finished as a top-ten WR last year with 96 catches for almost 1200 yards and seven touchdowns. I was happy to see Kupp, Diggs, and London go ahead of him since I feel like Smith has the highest dynasty floor of any player in that group, and it’s right before teams start taking their favorite rookie WRs.
3.14 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Doc – @DocFFFN
I was hoping D.K. Metcalf made it back to this slot, but he did not. Still, staying true to the build, the selection is the 2023 rookie class consensus WR1. An early-declare who dominated as a sophomore and outproduced fellow teammates and first-round picks Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, Smith-Njigba is a can’t-miss prospect. He possesses good size and athleticism for a WR, but most impressive are his route-running ability, his football IQ, and his savvy feel for the game. Pairing him with CeeDee Lamb and Kyle Pitts creates an elite trio that your author can rely upon for the next 8-10 years.
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