AFC

Comparing ADP, Dynasty to Redraft: AFC North

Dynasty / By /

A much-overlooked aspect of dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of dynasty players to redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking “well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in dynasty than redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYJ), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in redraft or dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DEN), who in redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in dynasty he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over nine parts (one part for each division and a rookie roundup after the draft), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to redraft, or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.

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Marvin Mims

23 Rookie Wide Receiver Analytics Spotlight Series: Marvin “Meh”ms

Rookie / By /

Marvin Mims burst onto the scene as a freshman at Oklahoma with a stellar season of 610 yards and nine touchdowns. This put him squarely into the conversation as one of the top wide receivers in the 2023 draft class. Mims is a big play threat. His 20.1 yards per reception were the third most in the country for 2023. For PPR formats, he is not the most desirable archetype of a wide receiver. His reception totals are relatively low and this can lead to inconsistency in his game-to-game performance. In dynasty best ball formats he is of more interest.

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Predicting and Analyzing the 2023 RB Carousel: NFC North

Dynasty / By /

With NFL Free Agency underway, the stacked running back landscape is shifting more than it has in a long time. Over the past few weeks, I’ve gone over my predictions for the running back situations of each team, as well as the corresponding fantasy implications. Today, we’ll be taking a look at the changes that have already happened in NFC North, as well as what still is to come. Check out Part 5 of this series, where I predicted the AFC North. 

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Josh Downs WR North Carolina NFL Draft Scouting Report

’23 Rookie WR Analytics Spotlight Series: Josh Downs is That Dude

All Access, Rookie / By /

When analyzing wide receiver prospects, analysts such as myself, like to check boxes when a player eclipses a designated threshold for a certain metric. No prospect in this class checked more of these boxes across all metrics than Josh Downs. Downs was an uber-producer during his time at Chapel Hill. When Sam Howell or Drake Maye needed a big play, Downs was the unquestioned target. In this article, I will take you through the numbers and display why you should be targeting Josh Downs in your dynasty rookie drafts.

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Redraft: Midseason Trade Targets & Game Theory

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In Redraft, trading is the best way to greatly change or improve your team. The hard part is determining what your team needs, and what players to target to fill those needs. In this article, I will be highlighting some guys that I think are worth buying either at or above their current price and some players you could look to trade away as well. Let us assume a 10-team, 0.5 PPR redraft league for these players and get right into it.

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noah brown

Week 3 Dynasty Waiver Wire

Dynasty / By /

Hello DFF members, my name is Chris and this year I will be writing the weekly dynasty waiver adds piece. In this article I will be writing about players that I feel should be owned in much higher quantities in your dynasty leagues. I will try to stick to low ownership percentages, around 30% or less, but if there is a guy above that, who I think should be owned significantly more I will include them as well. I will be focusing on a 12-team, full PPR set-up for these articles but the players I am choosing should apply in 10-team leagues as well. Without further ado let’s get into the waiver adds. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Greg Dulcich

Dynasty / By /

The former walk-on improved each season at UCLA. He’s a former three-star wide receiver who didn’t start until the 2020 season. He started to make a name for himself, as he led the Bruins in receiving with 517 yards and five touchdowns. He followed that with an impressive 2021 campaign, hauling in 42 receptions for 725 yards and five touchdowns. He averaged an eye-popping 18.3 yards per reception during his final two seasons at UCLA. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: James Cook

Dynasty / By /

The younger brother of Dalvin Cook. James split time with Zamir White for most of his collegiate career. White served as the primary rusher, and Cook spent a ton of his time as a lethal receiver out of the backfield. In 46 career games for the Bulldogs, Cook hauled 67 receptions for 730 yards and six touchdowns. During his first three seasons, he didn’t receive much work on the ground. During those three years, Cook combined for 775 yards on 117 carries (6.6 yards per attempt) and seven touchdowns. He produced 728 yards on 113 carries (6.4 yards per attempt) and seven touchdowns in his senior season alone. No matter how he got the ball, he turned in solid production in his limited role. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Alec Pierce

Dynasty / By /

After serving as a special teams player during the 2018 season, Pierce was given an opportunity with the Bearcats on offense in 2019. He started 12 of the 13 games and led the team with 652 receiving yards. Pierce led Cincinnati with 18.5 yards per reception the next season but was limited to just six games with a shoulder injury. In his final season, he bounced back in a big way, as Pierce was named a first-team Academic All-American. In 14 games played, he hauled in 52 receptions for 884 yards and eight touchdowns. 

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Draft or Pass: Jameson Williams

Dynasty / By /

Jameson Williams is one of the most intriguing prospects in the ’22 class. Williams tore his ACL in January but had an incredible season for Alabama before being named as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, which is awarded to the nation’s most outstanding WR in college. His incredible speed was displayed every weekend, regularly gashing opponents for chunk gains and long touchdowns, whether through the air or the return game, finishing his junior season with 79 catches for 1572 yards and 15 TDs. The only hole in his statistical profile is that he essentially did nothing until he got to Bama; with Ohio State, he totaled just 15 catches for 266 yards and 3 TDs in his first two seasons combined. Jameson offers a skill set that is required on every single NFL roster, his field-stretching ability could change the potential of an offense as well as possibly elevate other players around him, but I don’t think his stats will be a good representation of his value for the team that drafts him. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: New York Jets

Dynasty / By /

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). The big free agency splash moments are all but over at this point, and the NFL Draft is approaching quickly. We, as dynasty managers, need to be evaluating these offseason transactions and thinking about our roster adjustments every day. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the New York Jets. 

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Art of Arbitrage: Part 2

Dynasty / By /

Dynasty fantasy football has often been compared to the stock market. While there are some flaws in this analogy, many of the general principles are the same. We want to “buy low” and “sell high.” We want to diversify our portfolio across multiple leagues to mitigate risk. We want a healthy mixture of upside and safety in our investments. And, we want to look for arbitrage opportunities.

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Dynasty Trading Psychology: It Pays To Advertise

Dynasty / By /

Trading is the lifeblood of Dynasty Fantasy Football. Most of us would prefer to be in a league full of active and attentive owners where lots of trades go down. Unfortunately, that is often not the case, and even in some of the best leagues, there are usually at least one or two owners that are hard to reach (for any number of reasons) and that are hard to make deals with. I don’t know if I have ever gone through a startup draft or a rookie draft where there wasn’t at least one instance of someone reaching out to me and saying.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Buffalo Bills

Dynasty / By /

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). Technically, it’s not the offseason quite yet for the NFL, but it is for us fantasy football fanatics. As a dynasty manager, you need to start preparing for the next fantasy season RIGHT NOW. A lot can change before next season, and we don’t know how final rosters will look come next September. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down going into the offseason. We will break down each NFL team. Today is all about the Buffalo Bills. 

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AFC Mid-Season Check-in

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Earlier in the season, I wrote a piece on the projected win totals for both the AFC and NFC teams. With Week 8 behind us, I wanted to take some time to review our season-long win total bets and offer some opinions on where I believe each team is headed moving forward. This article will focus on the AFC teams.

While most books do not have updated win total bets, there are still plenty of season-long options to take including division winner, conference winner, and whether a team will make the playoffs. Hopefully, this article can give you some guidance on making these mid-season bets!

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2020 AFC Win Totals

All Access / By /

Finally, the 2020 NFL Season is less than one week away! While there were doubts that the season would occur due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we are officially set to begin the season on September 10. For those of you wishing to sneak in some last-minute season-long plays, below are my predictions for AFC team win totals heading into this new year. A full disclaimer that these predictions are predicated on the belief that the season proceeds as planned with limited interruptions due to the pandemic.

All lines are provided by our friends at DraftKings. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership, but also an extra $10 in DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!

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AFC Divisional Betting Odds

Uncategorized / By /

Some real value can be found in these bets if you’re willing to do the research. For instance, last year two teams went from 2017 doormats to divisional winners (the Texans and the Bears) and provided bettors with a nice payout. While a worst-to-first turnaround shouldn’t be expected every year, there is certainly value to be had in placing these year-long bets.   For each division, I’ll provide two picks. The first is the “Best Bet,” or the bet I feel is most likely to hit. As boring as it is, this is most likely the favorite and thus the safest bet to place. The second is the “Best Odds,” or where I perceive the best value to be. Full disclosure, this is where I take a little more liberty in my selections so if you’re looking for an opinion on the safest bet, I’d suggest sticking with my first recommendation.With that out of the way, let’s get on with the show!

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The Fantasy Explorers: AFC Week 8

Uncategorized / By /

As anyone who has played fantasy football knows, it’s good to know which way the wind blows. The ocean of fantasy assets stretches out before us and expands from horizon to horizon, making any thought of mapping it all out a daunting task. The AFC (or AF-Sea?) holds plenty of dark corners and treacherous pitfalls.

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