Finally, the 2020 NFL Season is less than one week away! While there were doubts that the season would occur due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we are officially set to begin the season on September 10. For those of you wishing to sneak in some last-minute season-long plays, below are my predictions for AFC team win totals heading into this new year. A full disclaimer that these predictions are predicated on the belief that the season proceeds as planned with limited interruptions due to the pandemic.
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AFC North
Bengals – Over/Under 5.5 wins
The 2020 Bengals are a much, much different team than the squad that went 2-14 last season. Of course, Joe Burrow now leads the team coming off the best season ever by a college quarterback. But the team also gets back 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams and future Hall of Famer A.J. Green. Burrow will take some lumps in the beginning (likely only winning one of his first six games), but his season gets remarkably easier in the latter half of the year with winnable matchups against the Giants, Washington, and Dolphins.
Pick: Over
Browns – Over/Under 8.5 wins
You almost have to take the under, don’t you? Many are still bitter over the Browns 2019 hype train derailing in spectacular fashion. But the team has taken numerous positive steps including shoring up an offensive line that already was a force in the run game. New coach Kevin Stefanski is famous for his run-heavy zone scheme, which should play right into his team’s strengths. The team also faces one of the easiest schedules in the league. I’m probably getting suckered in for another season of disappointment. But, at least I’ll get a glimpse into life as a Browns fan!
Pick: Over
Ravens – Over/Under 11 wins
Life just gets better and better for Ravens fans like Biscuits. After a season where the team took the league by storm, the Ravens pull a move often reserved for the Patriots and get to face the easiest schedule in the NFL based on last year’s win percentage. They may not reach their 14 wins from last season, but 11 seems plenty doable with this roster.
Pick: Over
Steelers – Over/Under 9 wins
Four overs in a row to start? The Steelers nearly made the playoffs last year with some self-admitted suspect quarterback play. The Steelers return a top-three defense and a revitalized Ben Roethlisberger. I’m going to buy into the narrative that Big Ben has not felt this great in years and will challenge the Ravens for the division crown. The AFC North could truly be a bloodbath this year.
Pick: Over
AFC South
Colts – Over/Under 9 wins
Does Rivers have one more go in him? If you just look at his numbers, that answer would be no. Rivers nearly doubled his interception total and posted his lowest passer rating in over a decade. However, the Chargers’ “protection” was absolutely woeful. Pro Football Focus graded the offensive line play at 29th out of 32 NFL teams. His new team, however, boasts one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Colts went 7-9 last year with a combination of Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer as starters and play a middle-of-the-road schedule. Now, they face the arguably easiest schedule in the NFL, including basically two free wins against the tanking Jags. It is a scary total, but I’ll take the over.
Pick: Over
Jaguars – Over/Under 4.5 wins
The Jaguars have absolutely gutted the team that nearly led them to Superbowl LII. Just listen to this list of players that are no longer with the team: Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell, Dante Fowler, Marcell Dareus, Malik Jackson, Aaron Colvin, Tashaun Gipson, Barry Church, Yannick Ngakoue, and most recently Leonard Fournette. This is a team that seems destined to pick in the top 5 in next year’s draft, even with some Minshew Magic.
Pick: Under
Texans – Over/Under 7.5 wins
No matter how successful Bill O’Brien is as a coach, you cannot deny the repeated blunders he has made as the Texans general manager. The Hopkins trade is only the tip of the iceberg; there’s plenty more that he’s done to make his job as a coach as difficult as possible. Throw in the fact that the Texans face the eighth hardest schedule in 2020 (they face 6 playoff teams in their first 7 weeks), and you’re looking at a recipe for disaster.
Pick: Under
Titans – Over/Under 8.5 wins
The Titans won 9 games last year which would just barely clear this year’s over total. However, much of the Titans’ success came after Week Six when the team switched from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill. Mariota was 2-4 as a starter while Tannehill boasted a much more impressive record at 7-3. The Titans also had an impressive resume of victories with the former Aggie behind center, beating teams such as the Patriots, Ravens, Chiefs, and (the formerly good) Houston Texans. The Titans have been praised for keeping their team intact this offseason, and have only gotten better since the recent addition of Jadeveon Clowney. A repeat of last year’s success is not out of the question in the slightest.
Pick: Over
AFC East
Bills – Over/Under 8.5 wins
This was a tough one for me. But as you’ll see in my analysis of the other AFC East teams below, I believe they will get a nice boost to their record from intra-divisional play. Adding in some nice matchups against the weaker AFC West teams likely gets them to seven or eight wins. The addition of Stefon Diggs was a vital one likely to make a big impact on Josh Allen’s success as a passer and the offense as a whole. That bump should be enough to beat one or two more tough teams en route to at least nine wins and an AFC East division crown.
Pick: Over
Dolphins – Over/Under 6.5 wins
Even though the Dolphins appeared to be fully tanking last year, Flores appeared to have inspired players to play tough and close with a 5-11 finish. Plus, they return PFF’s AFC East MVP to start the year! So why am I choosing the Under on this win total? Well, aside from a Week Three matchup with the Jaguars, the Dolphins face a tough early slate of games. If they are 2-6 by Week Eight, it seems very plausible that the organization would turn to their rookie, Tua Tagovailoa, to close out the year. While I admire and respect the ability of Tua, predicting any rookie to lead the team to a 5-3 record against teams like the Chiefs and Patriots seems like a fool’s errand.
Pick: Under
Jets – Over/Under 6.5 wins
Don’t look at me like that Coach. I’ll be honest; I am not sure if I have read one positive report coming out of Jets training camp this year. There’s the ongoing Le’Veon Bell – Gase drama, Denzel Mims’ injury woes, and of course the team dealt away defensive stud Jamal Adams. On top of all this, the Jets face the second-hardest schedule in the NFL. No, thank you.
Pick: Under
Patriots – Over/Under 8.5 wins
Am I really going to pick the Under on Bill Belichick and Cam Newton? The thought of betting against the best active coach and 2015 NFL MVP seems outrageous, but my pick isn’t based on just two pieces of the puzzle. The Patriots’ defense was hit hard this offseason losing Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, Duron Harmon, and Patrick Chung. They also boast one of the weakest receiving corps in the league. I fully believe in both Belichick and Cam but they can’t do it alone, especially not against the hardest schedule in the NFL.
Pick: Under
AFC West
Broncos – Over/Under 7.5 wins
The Broncos have made some notable waves this offseason, with some even projecting them as a trendy pick to unseat the Chiefs in the AFC West. I’m not buying it. PFF recently named Drew Lock the worst starting quarterback in the NFL and the arguments against it seem to boil down to “there’s no way he’s worse than Haskins!” When you’re making an argument for 31st instead of 32nd, that doesn’t bode well for the success of your team.
Pick: Under
Chargers – Over/Under 7.5 wins
This is a tough one. On the one hand, the team is set up to succeed with quality veteran talent on both sides of the ball. Tyrod has demonstrated he can play mistake-free football and take a team to the playoffs, while Melvin Ingram and Bosa can dominate games on their own. Their schedule also suggests that they will remain competitive early with matchups against the Bengals, Panthers, and Jets offsetting likely losses against the Chiefs and Saints. However, just like Miami, all it takes is one domino to fall for the Chargers to likely give up on the season and let their rookie quarterback get some experience. If that happens, I would be shocked if they wound up 8-8 on the year. I’m going to take the under, but my real pick would be to avoid this one.
Pick: Under
Chiefs – Over/Under 11.5 wins
The award for highest win total goes to the reigning, defending, undisputed, Super Bowl Champion Chiefs, and for good reason. The Chiefs’ roster remains largely unchanged since they won it all this February. Still, the Chiefs face a schedule that includes tough away matchups against the Ravens, Buccaneers, and Saints while also facing teams like the Falcons and Patriots at home. I think this team will certainly make a deep run into the playoffs. But, projecting them to win 12 games is a tough ask.
Pick: Under
Raiders – Over/Under 7 wins
I’ll be the first to pound my chest and say Derek Carr doesn’t get nearly the respect he deserves. People regularly dismiss his abilities while also failing to mention that his past three seasons have been marred by a lack of quality receivers and recovery from injury. His top target in 2018 was a 33-year-old Jordy Nelson for goodness sake!
But now that I’m off my soapbox, let me tell you why they won’t hit eight wins. The Raiders draw a very tough schedule. Not only do they have to face the Chiefs twice, but they also draw the Saints, Patriots, Buccaneers, Falcons, and Colts. While games against the Panthers and Jets should help boost their win total, it is hard to see this team going 8-8 given their games against upper-echelon opponents.
Pick: Under
Disagree with my predictions? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
